Forced Labor
Blacklist or Short List: Do Employers Discriminate against Union Supporter Job Applicants?
Nicole Kreisberg & Nathan Wilmers
ILR Review, forthcoming
Abstract:
Starting in the 1980s, US employers revived aggressive action against unions. Employers’ public opposition to unions yielded a scholarly consensus that US employers actively and consistently discriminate against union supporters. However, evidence for widespread employer anti-union discrimination is based mainly on employer reactions to rare union organizing campaigns. To measure baseline or preventive anti-union discrimination, the authors field the first ever US-based résumé correspondence study of employer responses to union supporter applicants. Focus is on entry-level, non-college degree jobs and findings show no difference in employer callback rates for union supporter applicants relative to non-union applicants. Drawing on interviews and survey data, the authors suggest that union weakness itself may have hollowed preventive employer discrimination against union supporters.
Are You Ready for Some Football? Estimating the Effect of American Football Season on Labor Supply in the United States
Luke Petach & Dustin Rumbaugh
Journal of Sports Economics, forthcoming
Abstract:
American football season reduces the Monday labor hours of employed men by two-thirds of an hour. A similar effect is found for Friday labor hours. We term these effects the “hangover effect” and “happy hour effect.” Consistent with a wide class of labor market models, the labor supply effect varies over the business cycle, increasing in expansions. The hangover effect implies an intertemporal elasticity of labor supply on the order of 0.014. Evaluated at the median hourly wage, our estimates imply an annual economic cost of foregone earnings associated with football season in the neighborhood of $5.06 billion.
Labor Market Returns and the Evolution of Cognitive Skills: Theory and Evidence
Santiago Hermo et al.
NBER Working Paper, August 2021
Abstract:
A large literature in cognitive science studies the puzzling "Flynn effect" of rising fluid intelligence (reasoning skill) in rich countries. We develop an economic model in which a cohort's mix of skills is determined by different skills' relative returns in the labor market and by the technology for producing skills. We estimate the model using administrative data from Sweden. Combining data from exams taken at military enlistment with earnings records from the tax register, we document an increase in the relative labor market return to logical reasoning skill as compared to vocabulary knowledge. The estimated model implies that changes in labor market returns explain 36 percent of the measured increase in reasoning skill, and can also explain the decline in knowledge. An original survey of parents, an analysis of trends in school curricula, and an analysis of occupational characteristics show evidence of increasing emphasis on reasoning as compared to knowledge.
The effectiveness of job creation tax credits
Shiferaw Gurmu, David Sjoquist & Laura Wheeler
Regional Science and Urban Economics, September 2021
Abstract:
We estimate the causal effects of job creation tax credits on employment using the exogenous spatial and time variations in the value of the credits across Georgia's 159 counties over a 15-year period. We employ three empirical approaches: regression discontinuity design models making use of the sharp discontinuity in eligibility for credits of different value; difference-in-differences models using inter temporal and inter and intra-county changes in credit value; and employment differences in bordering census tracts that qualify for different valued credits. We obtain mixed results, but in general they provide little evidence for the proposition that job creation tax credits create additional employment.
Technological Growth and Hours in the Long Run: Theory and Evidence
Magnus Reif, Mewael Tesfaselassie & Maik Wolters
Economica, October 2021, Pages 1016-1053
Abstract:
Over the last few decades, hours worked per capita have declined substantially in many OECD economies. Using the standard neoclassical growth model with endogenous work–leisure choice, we assess the role of trend growth slowdown in accounting for the decline in hours worked. In the model, a permanent reduction in technological growth decreases steady-state hours worked by increasing the consumption–output ratio. Our empirical analysis exploits cross-country variation in the timing and size of the decline in technological growth to show that technological growth has a highly significant positive effect on hours. A decline in the long-run trend of technological growth by 1 percentage point is associated with a decline in trend hours worked in the range of 1–3%. This result is robust to controlling for taxes, which have been found in previous studies to be an important determinant of hours. Our empirical finding is quantitatively in line with the one implied by a calibrated version of the model, though evidence for the model’s implication that the effect on hours works via changes in the consumption–output ratio is rather mixed.
Secular satiation
Gilles Saint-Paul
Journal of Economic Growth, September 2021, Pages 291–327
Abstract:
Satiation of need is generally ignored by growth theory. I study a model where consumers may be satiated in any given good but new goods may be introduced. A social planner will never elect a trajectory with long-run satiation. Instead, he will introduce enough new goods to avoid such a situation. In contrast, the decentralized equilibrium may involve long run satiation. This, despite that the social costs of innovation are second order compared to their social benefits. Multiple equilibria may arise: depending on expectations, the economy may then converge to a satiated steady state or a non satiated one. In the latter equilibrium, capital and the number of varieties are larger than in the former, while consumption of each good is lower. This multiplicity comes from the following strategic complementarity: when people expect more varieties to be introduced in the future, this raises their marginal utility of future consumption, inducing them to save more. In turn, higher savings reduces interest rates, which boosts the rate of innovation. When TFP grows exogenously and labor supply is endogenized, the satiated equilibrium generically survives. For some parametrer values, its growth rate is positive while labor supply declines over time to zero. Its growth rate is then lower than that of the non satiated equilibrium. Hence, the economy may either coordinate on a high leisure, low growth, satiated "leisure society" or a low leisure, high growth, non satiated "consumption society".
The impact of deunionization on the growth and dispersion of productivity and pay
Giovanni Dosi et al.
Industrial and Corporate Change, April 2021, Pages 377–408
Abstract:
This article presents an Agent-Based Model (ABM) that seeks to explain the concordance of sluggish growth of productivity and of real wages found in macroeconomic statistics, and the increased dispersion of firm productivity and worker earnings found in micro level statistics in advanced economies at the turn of the 21st century. It shows that a single market process unleashed by the decline of unionization can account for both the macro- and micro-economic phenomena, and that deunionization can be modeled as an endogenous outcome of competition between high wage firms seeking to raise productive capacity and low productivity firms seeking to cut wages. The model highlights the antipodal competitive dynamics between a “winner-takes-all economy” in which corporate strategies focused on cost reductions lead to divergence in productivity and wages and a “social market economy” in which competition rewards the accumulation of firm-level capabilities and worker skills with a more egalitarian wage structure.
Internet Access and its Implications for Productivity, Inequality, and Resilience
Jose Maria Barrero, Nicholas Bloom & Steven Davis
NBER Working Paper, July 2021
Abstract:
About one-fifth of paid workdays will be supplied from home in the post-pandemic economy, and more than one-fourth on an earnings-weighted basis. In view of this projection, we consider some implications of home internet access quality, exploiting data from the new Survey of Working Arrangements and Attitudes. Moving to high-quality, fully reliable home internet service for all Americans (“universal access”) would raise earnings-weighted labor productivity by an estimated 1.1% in the coming years. The implied output gains are $160 billion per year, or $4 trillion when capitalized at a 4% rate. Estimated flow output payoffs to universal access are nearly three times as large in economic disasters like the COVID-19 pandemic. Our survey data also say that subjective well-being was higher during the pandemic for people with better home internet service conditional on age, employment status, earnings, working arrangements, and other controls. In short, universal access would raise productivity, and it would promote greater economic and social resilience during future disasters that inhibit travel and in-person interactions.