Fixing the Street
Can Restorative Justice Conferencing Reduce Recidivism? Evidence From the Make-it-Right Program
Yotam Shem-Tov, Steven Raphael & Alissa Skog
Econometrica, forthcoming
Abstract:
This paper studies the effect of a restorative justice intervention targeted at 143 youth ages 13 to 17 facing felony charges of medium severity (e.g., burglary, assault). Eligible youths were randomly assigned to participate in the Make-it-Right (MIR) restorative justice program or a control group where they faced standard criminal prosecution. We estimate the effects of MIR on the likelihood that a youth will be rearrested in the four years following randomization. Assignment to MIR reduces the probability of a rearrest within six months by 19 percentage points, a 44 percent reduction relative to the control group. Moreover, the reduction in recidivism persists even four years after randomization. Thus, our estimates show that restorative justice conferencing can reduce recidivism among youth charged with relatively serious offenses and can be an effective alternative to traditional criminal justice practices.
Black Mayors and Crime
Craig Sylvera
Federal Reserve Working Paper, November 2023
Abstract:
Local elections are often contested on the grounds of public safety, but do elected officials have any power to curb crime? Black mayors have particular interest in the issue because Black communities are victimized by high levels of crime and fragile police-community relations. Using data on elections of first-time Black mayors, I find that police forces add more Black officers, a finding that is especially true for mayors with executive authority. Officers arrest 48 fewer potential Black offenders per 10,000 Black residents for crimes where they have the ability to exercise discretion, a finding that is commensurate with the overall reduction in crime. This effect is not visible for similar white arrests. Using changes in the levels of arrests and officers induced by pivotal Black elections, I then estimate the correlation of an additional officer on race-specific arrests. An additional Black officer is related to large reductions in discretionary Black arrests, perhaps suggesting increasing the presence and visibility of Black officers may offer a solution to the “over-policing, under-policing” problem Black communities tend to face.
The Direct and Intergenerational Effects of Criminal History-Based Safety Net Bans in the U.S.
Michael Mueller-Smith et al.
NBER Working Paper, December 2023
Abstract:
We study the lifetime banning, as introduced by United States Public Law 104-193, of individuals convicted of felony drug offenses after August 22, 1996 from ever receiving future SNAP benefits. Using a regression discontinuity design that leverages CJARS criminal history records with federal administrative and survey data, we estimate the causal impact of safety net assistance bans, finding significant reductions in SNAP benefit take-up, which creates unintentional spillovers to spouses and children and persist long after ban revocations occurred. While we observe limited changes to other adult outcomes, children's cognitive and educational outcomes worsen, especially those impacted at young ages.
Threats to Blue Networks: The Effect of Partner Injuries on Police Misconduct
Linda Zhao & Andrew Papachristos
American Sociological Review, forthcoming
Abstract:
Police culture creates an “us versus them” dynamic, which, at its worst, treats threats to the “thin blue line” as worthy of group response. Prior research documents such a group threat process as a possible mechanism for police misconduct, but few studies have analyzed the precise network relationships that serve as the conduit for a misconduct response. Using data on misconduct, officer injuries, and officer networks within the Chicago Police Department (CPD) between 2004 and 2015, this study examines the extent to which injuries officers receive from civilians might elicit a misconduct response from officers’ peers, and especially their direct network associates. Findings demonstrate that network ties to injured officers predict higher levels of subsequent misconduct, especially for officers with stronger ties to the injured officer. Furthermore, the effects of peer injury on subsequent misconduct are contingent on the race of the suspect involved: officers whose peers are injured are linked to more use of excessive force, as well as other types of misconduct, when the suspects involved are Black. These findings support our central hypothesis of a networked group threat response that links peer injuries to police misconduct.
Explaining the Extraordinary Decline in Chicago’s Homicide Arrest Rates, 1965 to 1994 and Beyond: Trends in Case Mix Versus Standards for Arrest
Philip Cook & Javier Lopez
Journal of Contemporary Criminal Justice, February 2024, Pages 82-112
Abstract:
Chicago’s homicide arrest rate dropped from 91% in 1965 to 57% in 1994 and dropped still lower in recent years. This pattern mirrors the trend in the national homicide clearance rate. A plausible explanation for this great decline is the trend in homicide case mix, which arguably has made it intrinsically more difficult to solve homicide cases. Our analysis describes the change in case mix for the period 1965 to 2020 and analyzes the effect on the arrest rate for the first 30 years of this period, all by use of a unique homicide case microdata set. We document the large changes in case mix: for example, the percentage of all homicides in which a male victim was shot outdoors increased from 18% (1965) to 69% (2020). But the change in case mix does not account for Chicago’s great decline during the earlier decades, as we demonstrate by use of a novel arrest rate index. In fact, the arrest rates in each of the categories defined by location, sex, and weapon type exhibited similar declines through 1994. (Subsequent years of arrest data are unavailable for now.) Our preferred explanation for the great decline is that the operational standard for making an arrest increased during this period. That interpretation is well supported by evidence explaining the corresponding national trend, though direct evidence is lacking for Chicago. This interpretation challenges the use of the arrest rate as a police performance indicator and offers a positive interpretation of the great decline.
On guard but not sworn: The relationship between school security guards, school resource officers, and student behavior, discipline, and arrests
Keenen Vernon & Chris Curran
Criminology & Public Policy, forthcoming
Abstract:
The increasing presence of armed security personnel in schools has led to concerns about the criminalization of students. While many schools use sworn law enforcement (e.g. school resource officers or SROs), many schools also use security guards who are not sworn law enforcement. Recent policy changes in a number of states and political pressures resulting from acts of mass school violence have led policymakers to face decisions between the use of SROs and security guards. This study informs this policy debate by empirically examining the relationships between security guards and SROs with rates of student behavior, discipline, and arrest using nationally representative data from the Civil Rights Data Collection. Controlling for observable covariates and school district fixed effects, we find that, in contrast to SROs, the use of security guards in schools is not systematically related to student arrest or suspension rates. The findings suggest that non-sworn security guards may provide a form of security personnel that minimizes the criminalization of students relative to SROs.
Fair Chance Act failures? Employers’ hiring of people with criminal records
Sharon Oselin et al.
Criminology & Public Policy, forthcoming
Abstract:
We examine the efficacy of the California Fair Chance Act (CFCA) policy -- legislative stipulations regarding employers’ hiring of individuals with criminal records -- on practices and outcomes in two Southern California counties during 2021. We rely on survey and experiment data with 542 hiring decision makers to investigate employer and personal compliance with the CFCA, whether applicant appeals affect employers’ willingness to hire them, and heterogeneity in treatment effects across firms and industries. Close to 80% of hiring decision makers violate the CFCA by obtaining background information before they extend an offer, appeals have a minimal impact on hiring outcomes, and firm-level characteristics continue to shape hiring practices to some extent.
Desperation on the Battlefield, the Ethnic Security Dilemma, or Economic Competition? Mass Shootings in Chicago’s Gang Wars, 2010–20
Patrick Burke
British Journal of Criminology, January 2024, Pages 88–106
Abstract:
In this study I examine the logic of gang-related mass shootings in Chicago between 2010 and 2020. I argue that gangs utilize mass shootings to win market share when demand for illegal drugs spikes. I also test two established theories of indiscriminate violence: ‘desperation on the battlefield’ and the ‘ethnic security dilemma’. To do so I construct an original dataset mainly using Freedom of Information Act responses. Using opioid overdose data to proxy for demand in drug markets, I find support for my theory in a series of linear fixed effects models. The ‘ethnic security dilemma’ also finds support. However, the two variables meant to proxy for ‘desperation’, search warrants and arrests of gang members for shootings, reduce gang-related mass shootings -- the opposite of the predicted outcome. I conclude by discussing contributions to the existing literature, limitations and pathways for future research.
Gunshot detection technology effect on gun violence in Kansas City, Missouri: A microsynthetic control evaluation
Eric Piza et al.
Criminology & Public Policy, forthcoming
Abstract:
We apply the microsynthetic control method to evaluate the gun violence prevention effect of gunshot detection technology (GDT) in Kansas City, MO. We measure the influence of GDT on process measures (ballistic evidence collection and gun recoveries) and outcome measures (shots fired calls for service, non-fatal shootings, fatal shootings, and aggravated assaults and robberies committed with a firearm). The GDT system was associated with higher levels of ballistic evidence collection in the GDT target area and surrounding catchment area, higher levels of gun recoveries in the surrounding catchment area, and lower levels of shots fired calls for service in the GDT target area. The GDT system did not influence any of the gun violence categories involving confirmed victims (non-fatal shootings, fatal shootings, and aggravated assaults and robberies committed with a firearm).
Assessing causal effects under treatment heterogeneity: An evaluation of a CCTV program in Detroit
Giovanni Circo et al.
Journal of Experimental Criminology, December 2023, Pages 1033–1051
Objectives: This study examines the effect Project Green Light Detroit (PGLD), an integrated CCTV program, on crime at commercial and non-commercial city parcels in Detroit, MI.
Methods: A quasi-experimental design was used by implementing a difference-in-differences model with adjustments made for variation in treatment timing and treatment heterogeneity.
Results: Findings from the study indicate that PGLD increased reporting of property crimes at some participating locations but did not significantly impact violent or disorder crimes. Most of the impact of PGLD was attributable to locations that joined the program early in its implementation.
Should We Defund “Bad Police” or Reform “Bad Policing”? Examining Person-Centered and Act-Based Moral Evaluations of Police and Policing Policy Preferences
Jason Silver & Richard Moule
Crime & Delinquency, forthcoming
Abstract:
Despite widespread calls to defund or reform police, little research has explored the factors shaping public support for these proposals. We draw from person-centered morality theory to argue that person-centered moral evaluations of police (moral character beliefs) drive support for defunding police, while act-based moral evaluations of police (procedural justice) drive support for reforming police. Using data from a national survey (N = 1,225), exploratory factor analyses showed that these moral evaluations of police were empirically distinct. OLS regression results indicated that perceptions of “bad police” (negative person-centered evaluations) more strongly predicted support for defunding policies (abolition and reduced funding of police), while perceptions of “bad policing” (negative act-based evaluations) more strongly predicted support for due process and racial justice reforms.
An experimental examination of the perceptual paradox surrounding police canine units
Ryan Sandrin, Rylan Simpson & Janne Gaub
Journal of Experimental Criminology, December 2023, Pages 1021–1031
Methods: As part of the between-subjects paradigm, participants were randomly assigned to view and rate an image of a police officer either with a police dog (i.e., as a police canine unit) or alone on eight dimensions: aggression, approachability, fairness, friendliness, intimidation, professionalism, respectfulness, and trustworthiness.
Results: The analyses reveal that the officer was perceived more negatively when presented with a police dog than when presented alone.