Fixing Elections
More Chances, Fewer Problems? Revisiting Ranked Choice Voting Errors in New York City
Lindsey Cormack
American Politics Research, forthcoming
Abstract:
As jurisdictions continue adopting ranked choice voting (RCV), understanding the system’s impact on voter efficacy remains important. In 2021, New York City implemented RCV for the first time in its municipal party primaries, and ballot-level data revealed that voters in lower-income and lower-education assembly districts had higher rates of ballot voiding due to overvote errors. This paper revisits that analysis using data from the 2025 Democratic mayoral primary, the city’s second city-wide use of RCV. I test whether prior disparities persist or if there is evidence of voter learning and adaptation. Using cast vote records (CVRs) and updated demographic data, I examine ballot voiding rates across NYC assembly districts and assess whether education, income, and racial composition still predict overvote errors. Findings show that overall ballot voiding declined substantially between 2021 and 2025, but district-level patterns linking errors to lower education persist, albeit in an attenuated manner. These results are consistent with electorate familiarization to RCV but highlight ongoing disparities.
Electoral Margins and Political Competition
Clemence Tricaud & Romain Wacziarg
NBER Working Paper, December 2025
Abstract:
In this paper, we argue that recent trends in party seat margins and election vote margins result from structural changes in the nature of US political competition. We assemble a comprehensive database of electoral results for the House, Senate and presidential contests, from the 19th century until today. Seat margins declined in the recent period, so the margins of control of the House, Senate, and Electoral College by either party have become smaller. However, this was not accompanied by a decline in the margins of victory at the constituency level. We propose a model of electoral competition with multiple districts that can rationalize these trends. We show theoretically that an increase in politicians’ information about voter preferences, together with the growing nationalization of politics, can account for the decrease in seat margins and the concurrent stability in vote margins. As implied by the model, we document that campaign contributions received by House and Senate candidates are increasingly concentrated in a dwindling set of swing constituencies.
The California Voting Rights Act and Uncontested City Council Seats
Garrett Glasgow
Urban Affairs Review, forthcoming
Abstract:
The California Voting Rights Act (CVRA) prohibits local governments from holding at-large elections in a way that impairs the ability of a racial minority or other protected class to elect candidates of its choice. Local governments found to be in violation of the CVRA are required to switch to district elections, which in practice has meant single-member district elections. While there is evidence that the CVRA is achieving its aim of increasing minority representation in local governments, it has also led to an increase in uncontested elections. I find that a switch from at-large to single-member district elections increases the expected number of uncontested seats in California city council elections by approximately one-half of a seat, a sizeable effect when considering that a typical city council election involves two or three seats. Much of this increase is due to a decline in the number of candidates running for office.
Depression, Populism, and Presidential Approval
Matthew Baum et al.
International Journal of Public Opinion Research, Winter 2025
Abstract:
Is there a relationship between depression and political evaluations? Building on existing work, we argue that experiencing depressive symptoms will positively correlate with supporting a populist politician and negatively correlate with supporting a nonpopulist officeholder. We evaluate these predictions with data from the United States, focusing on Donald Trump and Joe Biden. Our data are consistent with our hypotheses, and, as expected, we find particularly strong relationships for Democratic respondents. The results highlight the importance of considering mental health when studying the approval of politicians both in and out of office. We conclude with a discussion of next steps for a research agenda on depression and political evaluations.
Promoting Conspiracy Theories Strategically
David Hilden & Michael Kistner
Quarterly Journal of Political Science, June 2025, Pages 307-337
Abstract:
What motivates politicians to amplify conspiracy theories? What constrains them from doing so? This article introduces a new theoretical framework, the strategic calculus of conspiracy theory promotion. Conspiracy theories, we argue, enable politicians to mobilize supporters but expose proponents to potential backlash. Using original data on conspiracy theory promotion by members of Congress on social media, we consider whether members use conspiracy theories to secure votes and campaign contributions. Difference-in-differences analyses reveal that members are more likely to promote conspiracy theories prior to a contested primary election and less likely to promote them afterwards. Additionally, we find that members raise more money from individual donors following conspiracy theory promotion. Our theory and findings highlight the need for more research focused on how political incentives shape the spread of conspiracy theories and misinformation.
Going Local? Localized Rhetoric in Congressional Communications
Michael Heseltine
Political Communication, forthcoming
Abstract:
In the face of the purported nationalization of political discourse in the United States, to what extent do congressional representatives still engage locally through their public communications? Based on a comprehensive dataset of over nine million tweets and Facebook posts sent by Members of Congress between 2011 and 2023, analyzed through a first-of-its-kind fine-tuned machine learning classifier of local content combined with a hand-coded list of over 4000 news web domains, this paper assesses how often Members use localized messaging, which Members are most inclined to use locally-focused communications, and whether a local communications strategy is associated with electoral or political advantages for Members. The results suggest, first, that congressional communications still contain a substantial and consistent focus on local content. The use of local messaging is also dynamic and strategic, with Members in a position of congressional and presidential control being most prone to focusing on local content. However, across a range of measures, localized messaging is not associated with increased constituent approval, campaign fundraising, or electoral performance for Members. These results, collectively, highlight how even in a nationalized online communications environment, local factors still play a significant role in guiding Member messaging strategies, even in the absence of tangible political benefits.
Bureaucratic Bias or Voter-Side Factors? Testing Competing Explanations for Racial Gaps in Vote-By-Mail Ballot Signature Rejections
Michael Herndon, Kassra Oskooii & Michael Rios
Political Research Quarterly, forthcoming
Abstract:
Differential rejection rates of vote-by-mail (VBM) ballots by race and ethnicity are often attributed to voter-side factors -- such as cultural or linguistic barriers -- rather than to discretionary decisions by signature evaluators. We assess this claim with a two-part research design. In Study 1, an audit of Washington State ballot status reports revealed that ballots cast by voters with Hispanic surnames are substantially more likely to be rejected for signature mismatch than those cast by non-Hispanic White surnames, and that the disparity between mismatch and late-submission rejections is markedly greater for Hispanic voters, implicating administrative discretion. In Study 2, 1,797 Washingtonians evaluated 24 pairs of valid signatures -- each bearing a Hispanic- or White-coded name -- produced by volunteers from diverse racial and ethnic backgrounds who were randomly assigned to each name, thereby neutralizing systematic voter-side factors. Evaluators rejected Hispanic-named signatures at higher rates than White-named ones. Supplementary analysis reported in the appendix shows that an explicit pro-White/anti-immigrant bias measure predicted lower acceptance of Hispanic-named signatures but had no effect on White-named signature acceptance. Overall, the accumulated evidence implicates evaluator bias as the primary driver of racial disparities in VBM signature verification and calls for reforms that can mitigate such bias to ensure equitable election administration.
A Widespread Belief About County Splits in Political Districting Plans Is Wrong
Austin Buchanan, Soraya Ezazipour & Maral Shahmizad
Election Law Journal, December 2025, Pages 303-321
Abstract:
Consider the task of dividing a state into k contiguous political districts whose populations must not differ by more than one person, following current practice for congressional districting in the USA. A widely held belief among districting experts is that this task requires at least k − 1 county splits. This statement has appeared in expert testimony, special master reports, and Supreme Court oral arguments. In this article, we seek to dispel this belief. To illustrate, we find plans for several states that use zero county splits, that is, all counties are kept whole, despite satisfying contiguity and 1-person deviation. This is not a rare phenomenon; states like Iowa and Montana admit hundreds, thousands, or tens of thousands of such plans. In practice, mapmakers may need to satisfy additional criteria, like compactness, minority representation, and partisan fairness, which may lead them to believe k − 1 splits to be minimum. Again, this need not be true. To illustrate, we conduct short case studies for North Carolina (for partisan fairness) and Alabama (for minority representation). Contrary to expert testimony and Supreme Court oral arguments from Allen v. Milligan (2023a), we find that fewer than k − 1 county splits suffices, even when subjected to these additional criteria. This demonstrates our narrow point that k − 1 county splits should not be assumed minimum and also suggests that districting criteria do not conflict as much as people sometimes believe. The optimization methods proposed in this article are flexible and can assist mapmakers in satisfying them.
Are socialists and populists better connected to the working class? Comparing politicians’ intimate social ties in 13 countries
Nino Junius & Stefaan Walgrave
Party Politics, forthcoming
Abstract:
Populist and social democrat parties often claim to better represent lower socio-economic status (SES) citizens, yet existing research shows their elected politicians are mostly socio-economically privileged. This study asks whether these politicians nonetheless maintain closer personal ties to lower SES individuals, focusing on politicians’ intimate relationships such as parents, partners, and close friends. Using original survey data from 1185 politicians across 13 countries, we find limited evidence that populists and socialists are better in touch, through their ties, with lower SES individuals. Populists and socialists are more likely than other politicians to come from lower-class families, and social democrats more often have lower-educated parents. However, both groups are just as likely as other politicians to have highly educated and higher-class friends and partners. A notable exception is that populists are somewhat more likely to have a lower-educated partner. Overall, despite their rhetoric, intimate ties to lower SES groups remain limited among populists and socialists.