Electoral Mandate
Who Runs When?
Federica Izzo
Journal of Politics, forthcoming
Abstract:
When are good candidates willing to run for office? I analyze a dynamic model of elections in which voters learn about politicians' competence by observing governance outcomes. In each period, the country faces either a crisis or business as usual. A crisis has two key features: it exacerbates the importance of the officeholder's competence and, as a consequence, the informativeness of his performance. I show that electoral accountability has the perverse consequence of discouraging good candidates from running in times of crisis. Precisely when the voter needs him the most, the potential candidate who is most likely to be competent chooses to stay out of the race to preserve his electoral capital. In contrast with the existing literature, this adverse selection emerges even if running is costless and holding office is more valuable than the outside option.
Compulsory voting increases men's turnout most
Shane Singh
American Journal of Political Science, forthcoming
Abstract:
Equal turnout fosters equal representation. As such, researchers have long sought to understand what causes gender differences in voter participation. I argue that compulsory voting increases men's turnout relative to that of women. This is because men are particularly receptive to external incentives, while women are more intrinsically motivated. Within Brazil and across countries, I use administrative data to show that compulsory voting increases men's turnout most. I also argue that, due to social desirability bias, nonvoting women are most likely to claim to have participated under mandatory voting. With comparisons of official and reported turnout, I demonstrate compulsory voting increases women's turnout overreporting relative to that of men. By increasing men's relative turnout, compulsory voting could introduce or accentuate representational disparities in favor of men, and this potentiality can be obscured by survey data.
Robotization and the Political Response of Politicians
Pinar Yildirim et al.
University of Pennsylvania Working Paper, February 2025
Abstract:
We construct a dataset using pre-existing industry shares weighted by U.S. robot adoption rates within corresponding industries. We examine how robot exposure in commuting zones -- geographic areas where people are likely to work -- affects certain political behaviors. Specifically, we analyze campaign visits during the 2016 presidential election, distinguishing between all campaign visits, and those late in the campaign, in October and November. To account for potential endogeneity, we use robot adoption in select EU countries (Denmark, Italy, Sweden, Finland, France, Germany, and the UK) as an instrument for U.S. robot adoption, following the approach of Acemoglu and Restrepo (2020) and Faber et al. (2022). We find that the Republican candidate, Donald Trump, was more likely to visit areas with higher robot exposure, particularly in October (on average) and in November within the high- manufacturing commuting zones (those with manufacturing employment above the median). Our findings indicate that each additional robot per 1,000 workers increased campaign visits by an average of 1.03 visits in October and 0.7 visits in November. We do not observe a similar effect for the Democratic candidate in 2016, Hillary Clinton.
Sex, Campaign Contributions, and State Courts of Last Resort
Andrew Hewitt Smith & Conny Sidi Kazungu
Political Research Quarterly, forthcoming
Abstract:
Women have struggled to be elected at the federal, state, or local levels -- with the notable exception of State Courts of Last Resort (SCLR), where women have experienced (comparative) electoral success. While scholars have sought to explain this relative success, one factor often overlooked is the role of campaign contributions and whether women are outraising their male counterparts. Using an original database of campaign contributions from 1989 to 2020, we seek to shed more light on female candidate fundraising in SCLR elections, both in terms of amounts raised and who is contributing to these campaigns. After controlling for other factors, we find that female candidates outraise male candidates overall, primarily -- but not exclusively -- by outraising men on small donations. We also find that incumbency and professional experience do not help women outraise men, and we find that the fundraising success of female SCLR candidates is primarily with White Anglo women. We conclude by offering insights on where the study of sex and judicial elections should go next.
Gender Affinity, Ideology, and the Contributions of Individuals to Women State Supreme Court Candidates
Aleksandra Moskal & Eric Waltenburg
American Politics Research, forthcoming
Abstract:
Is there a gender affinity effect present in the amount of contributions individuals donate to candidates for state supreme courts, and if so, is it moderated by ideology? Using data from FollowTheMoney.org and the Bonica and Woodruff common space measures of state judicial ideology, we find both a "gender affinity" effect and an effect of ideology. More specifically, we find that women donors provide greater support to women candidates, whereas women candidates are disadvantaged among male donors. Moreover, the financial support for women candidates is moderated by the candidate's ideology, with more liberal women candidates enjoying greater levels of financial support from women contributors and less support from male donors. We suggest this pattern of contribution decisions can affect the pool of viable women candidates for state supreme courts.
Dark Money and Politician Learning
Keith Schnakenberg & Ian Turner
Journal of Politics, forthcoming
Abstract:
We study the consequences of campaign finance disclosure laws in a model of informative campaign finance. Campaign spending can affect electoral outcomes and also signal policy information to politicians. Under mandatory disclosure donors may engage in spending that runs counter to their electoral interests in order to signal good news regarding their preferred policy. When donors can use dark money the electoral price to influence policy increases to account for the possibility that donors use public spending to signal, but secretly offset the electoral costs with dark money. Our results suggest that observable spending will tend to increase for moderate candidates and decrease for extreme candidates when dark money is allowed. We also illustrate how different social pressures and the differential impact of public versus private spending on electoral outcomes affect patterns of campaign spending.
Improved Financial Well-Being Increases Voter Turnout: Evidence from the Mortgage Market
Haoyang Liu et al.
Federal Reserve Working Paper, January 2025
Abstract:
We document that borrowers who refinanced their mortgages between 2009 and 2012, a period marked by falling mortgage rates, were more likely to vote in the 2012 general election than similar borrowers who did not. An eligibility cutoff in the Home Affordable Refinance Program (HARP) helps identify a causal relationship. Consistent with the resource model of voting, we find that the effect of refinancing on voting is larger for borrowers with lower incomes and larger debt service reductions. Our findings shed new light on the causes of voter turnout and the political economy of mortgage credit.
Does the Presence or Absence of Elections Remove Gender Differences in Ambition for Public Service?
Hans Hassell, Gary Hollibaugh & Matthew Miles
British Journal of Political Science, February 2025
Abstract:
Perhaps because scholars of political ambition have focused almost entirely on electoral ambition, the presence of elections has been thought to play a major role in shaping who expresses interest in public service. In this article, we examine whether the presence or absence of elections changes women's political ambition. Using surveys of law students, federal bureaucrats, and the general public, we find the relationship between gender and ambition for elected office is similar to the relationship between gender and ambition for bureaucratic and judicial service. We show that, although women are deterred from public service by the elections that act as gateways to those opportunities, the effects of elections on gendered political ambition duplicate the effects of other components of public service. Rather than unique, elections are duplicative in their effects, reinforcing the relationship between gender and ambition rather than fundamentally changing who expresses ambition for public service.