Elections of the Future
Public Support for Democracy in the United States Has Declined Generationally
Christopher Claassen & Pedro Magalhães
Public Opinion Quarterly, forthcoming
Abstract:
Support for democracy in the United States, once thought to be solid, has now been shown to be somewhat shaky. One of the most concerning aspects of this declining attachment to democracy is a marked age gap, with younger Americans less supportive of democracy than their older compatriots. Using age-period-cohort analysis of 12 national surveys collected between 1995 and 2019, we show that this age gap is largely a function of a long-term generational decline in support for democracy, with little evidence of an independent life-cycle effect apparent. The combination of generational decline without a positive and counterbalancing life-cycle effect offers a sober prognosis of how support for democracy in the United States might look in the future.
Candidate Identity and Campaign Priming: Analyzing Voter Support for Pete Buttigieg’s Presidential Run as an Openly Gay Man
Gabriele Magni & Andrew Reynolds
Political Research Quarterly, forthcoming
Abstract:
Pete Buttigieg’s candidacy in the 2020 Democratic primaries caught fire more than most predicted. An openly gay man, Buttigieg is also a veteran and a Christian. Did voters penalize Buttigieg for being gay and in a same-sex relationship? Did his other traits offset voter negative bias? We conducted a survey with over 6000 likely voters during the primaries. We included a priming experiment that manipulated the salience of Buttigieg’s identity traits. We then asked respondents how much they liked Buttigieg and who they would support in a match-up between Buttigieg and Trump. Overall, voters penalized Buttigieg for being in a same-sex relationship. The penalty surprisingly increased when his religiosity was highlighted. In contrast, Buttigieg’s military background mitigated voter discrimination when he was presented as a veteran married to a man. This article reveals how double standards and heterosexism penalize gay candidates, and contributes to discussions on minority candidates and electability.
What do voters know, and why does it matter? Investigating issue-specific knowledge and candidate choice in the 2020 U.S. primaries
Peter Beattie & Jovan Milojevich
Analyses of Social Issues and Public Policy, forthcoming
Abstract:
Are differences in issue-specific knowledge associated with different candidate preferences, as would be expected if voters are judging candidates and their policy commitments on the basis of essential contextual knowledge they receive from the media? By utilizing a bias-sensitive method of measuring politically relevant knowledge -- on economic, foreign policy, and environmental issues -- we were able to identify candidate-selection effects of policy-specific information. The study also offers new evidence on how psychological traits affect political thinking within a partisan group, whereas most research has focused on psychological asymmetries across ideological and partisan groups. Based on previous research, we expected Sanders supporters and supporters of other “anti-establishment” candidates to have less accurate knowledge on these issues than Biden (and other establishment candidate) supporters, as the demographic groups that differentially supported Sanders tend to have lower levels of political knowledge. Instead, Sanders and anti-establishment candidate supporters were found to be more knowledgeable on these issues. We also found psychological asymmetries among Democrats and Democrat-leaning Independents, which were associated with candidate preference. Overall, issue-specific political knowledge was found to be an important predictor of vote choice.
Trump’s African Americans? Racial resentment and Black support for Trump in the 2020 elections
Udi Sommer & Idan Franco
Politics, Groups, and Identities, forthcoming
Abstract:
The juxtaposition of the 2016 and 2020 elections reveals that despite articulating prejudiced positions as a candidate and then as president, Donald Trump broadened his support among minorities. Particularly perplexing is the fact that support for Trump grew among African Americans. We propose a counterintuitive explanation: racial resentment among Blacks accounted for Trump’s increased support. Our highly robust results motivate a reevaluation of standard understandings of the role of race in American politics writ large and in American elections more specifically. Blacks show considerably more variance in voting behavior than what would be expected given accounts focused on their linked fate; Blacks behave not just in the mold of Stacey Abrams, but more than commonly thought also in the mold of Clarence Thomas. As racially resentful Blacks reside disproportionately in certain swing states, our account portrays Blacks as citizens with political agency, who may be pivotal in determining election outcomes, sometimes in unexpected ways.
Television market size and political accountability in the U.S. House of Representatives
Patrick Balles, Ulrich Matter & Alois Stutzer
European Journal of Political Economy, forthcoming
Abstract:
This paper examines the role of local TV market structure in U.S. congressional politics, exploiting variation in the overlaps of political markets and TV markets. Local TV stations are hypothesized to report relatively more per U.S. House representative in less populous markets (where the number of House districts covered is smaller), leading to better-informed voters and more accountable representatives. We find that smaller markets are indeed associated with (i) higher coverage of representatives and (ii) a higher level of voters’ knowledge about their representatives. However, (iii) representatives of smaller and more congruent markets are only more likely to decide aligned with their constituents’ policy preferences in highly competitive districts. This evidence suggests that local political news coverage on TV serves as a complement rather than a substitute in holding members of the U.S. Congress accountable.
The Impacts of Local Housing Markets on U.S. Presidential Elections: Via the Collateral Channel
C.Y. Choi, David Quigley & Xiaojun Wang
University of Texas Working Paper, August 2023
Abstract:
This paper examines the influence of local housing markets on U.S. presidential elections in the past three decades. Utilizing county-level panel data for the period 1988-2020 within the framework of two-way fixed effects models, we find a significant and positive effect of local house prices on support for incumbent parties, i.e., greater support for the incumbent party in counties where housing prices outpaced the national average. This impact varies widely across counties, and is more pronounced in areas with a higher proportion of financially constrained homeowners. This supports the “collateral effect” channel as the primary mechanism through which local housing markets impact U.S. national elections.
Electoral Proximity and Issue-Specific Responsiveness
Michael Pomirchy
Public Opinion Quarterly, forthcoming
Abstract:
Do elections increase responsiveness of legislators to their constituents? Previous studies that examine the effect of electoral proximity have been unable to hold the roll-call agenda constant and control for differences in unobserved covariates between legislators. This paper utilizes a natural experiment in four state legislatures -- Arkansas, Illinois, Florida, and Texas -- where term length was randomly assigned. This design compares the responsiveness to constituency opinion of those randomly assigned to a two-year term to those assigned a four-year term on different issue areas, like the economy, environment, and crime. I find no evidence for an electoral proximity effect on responsiveness. In addition, in the Illinois State Senate, the causal effect of electoral proximity on responsiveness is measured on several individual roll-call votes, including the legalization of medical marijuana and gay marriage.
Do Democracy Vouchers help democracy?
Sarah Papich
Contemporary Economic Policy, forthcoming
Abstract:
Seattle's Democracy Vouchers program provides a unique form of public financing for political campaigns in which voters decide how to allocate public funding across candidates. This paper is the first to study the effects of public financing for political campaigns on political participation. I estimate that the Democracy Vouchers program increases voter turnout by 4.9 percentage points, suggesting that public financing programs can increase political participation. I also find that campaigns become more reliant on small contributions. For city council candidates, dollars from small contributions under $100 increase by 156% while dollars from large contributions over $250 decrease by 93%.
Celebrating wins, lamenting losses in the aftermath of presidential elections: Examining BIRGing, CORFing, information utility, and identity repair
Eliana DuBosar et al.
Journal of Media Psychology, forthcoming
Abstract:
In this paper, we examine media use in the aftermath of the 2004, 2012, and 2020 presidential elections in the United States. Specifically, we test whether members of the party who won the election bask in reflected glory (BIRG; i.e., seek out pro-attitudinal media after preferred candidate wins) or whether members of the losing party cut off reflected failure (CORF; i.e., cut off ties with their party after a loss by decreasing their use of pro-attitudinal media). We also examine whether individuals whose candidate lost use pro-attitudinal media to repair their identity, or engage in information utility behaviors by seeking out counter-attitudinal information to learn about the opposing party following their win. Using two waves of survey data from the 2004, 2012, and 2020 US presidential elections, we find support for the BIRGing hypothesis. However, we did not find support for any of the hypotheses associated with losing the elections.