Domestic Disputes
Repression and Dissent: How Tit-for-Tat Leads to Violent and Nonviolent Resistance
Stephanie Dornschneider-Elkink & Nick Henderson
Journal of Conflict Resolution, forthcoming
Abstract:
Much research examines the state-dissident nexus by large-n studies and rational choice theories. This article contributes an analysis of dissident reasoning through a computational evaluation of ethnographic interviews. The analysis shows that dissident decision-making is based on tit-for-tat deliberations: Dissidents choose violent means primarily in response to violent repression, and nonviolent means in response to nonviolent repression. Ordinary citizens not participating in dissent consider positive state behavior or safety concerns instead. Consistent with arguments that state-dissident interactions are reciprocal, these findings reveal unexpected cognitive similarities between political dissent and cooperation, which is often associated with tit-for-tat deliberations. They also show the importance of state repression compared with other motivators of dissent, including perceived relative deprivation and social contagion. The findings identify heuristic patterns of reasoning which suggest that dissidents may be more open to change and, ultimately, cooperation with state authorities than what is argued by repressive states.
The Political Effects of Witnessing State Atrocities: Evidence from the Nazi Death Marches
Alexander De Juan et al.
Comparative Political Studies, forthcoming
Abstract:
How does witnessing regime atrocities influence the political attitudes of bystanders? We argue that observing regime violence against innocent civilians triggers psychological dissonance between beliefs about the regime and the witnessed moral transgression. As a result, regime support should decrease among bystanders of state atrocities. We analyze original, highly disaggregated archival data from the Nazi death marches at the end of World War II, which confronted ordinary German citizens with the regime’s crimes. We find that locations with higher victim numbers had lower vote shares for right-wing nationalist parties after the war. Supporting our proposed mechanism, we show that (1) this effect was strongest when Nazi crimes were at the center of public discourse and (2) that witnessing Nazi atrocities was associated with individuals’ rejection of Hitler 20 years later. The findings have implications for understanding democratization prospects and people’s nostalgia for fallen autocrats.
Broadcasting Out-Group Repression to the In-Group: Evidence From China
Erin Baggott Carter & Brett Carter
Journal of Conflict Resolution, forthcoming
Abstract:
Many autocrats govern with an in-group, whose support must be secured, and an out-group, which is subject to repression. How do autocrats exploit in-group/out-group dynamics to secure their survival? One strategy, we argue, is to broadcast out-group repression to the in-group as a signal of the regime’s capacity for violence. Empirically, we focus on China, where the government represses ethnic Uyghurs in Xinjiang. Drawing on 1 million articles from six propaganda newspapers, we show that the regime broadcasts out-group repression to urban elites on each anniversary of the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre, when 10% of Beijing residents joined anti-regime protests. To understand its effects, we conducted a survey experiment balanced on the national census during the June 2020 Tiananmen anniversary. Using a list experiment to mitigate preference falsification, we show that CCP propaganda about Uyghurs during the Tiananmen anniversary discourages protests among politically engaged urban elites because they fear repression.
The effects of economic development on democratic institutions and repression in non-democratic regimes: Theory and evidence
Alexander Kemnitz & Martin Roessler
Constitutional Political Economy, June 2023, Pages 145–164
Abstract:
This paper provides a theoretical rationale for the simultaneous use of repression and democratic institutions by a non-democratic government, as is often observed in reality. We find that economic development has different impacts on the levels of repression and democracy, depending on whether it appears in the form of rises in income or in education: A higher income level reduces democracy, whereas more education leads to both more democracy and more repression. These theoretical implications are corroborated by dynamic panel data regressions.
Authoritarian leaders, economic hardship, and inequality
Sung Min Han & Kangwook Han
Democratization, forthcoming
Abstract:
Do political leaders influence the level of economic inequality in authoritarian countries? Building on previous studies on political leaders and authoritarian regimes, we argue that economic inequality is likely to decrease during the tenure of authoritarian leaders with personal experiences of economic hardship. Since authoritarian leaders have greater policy discretion than their democratic counterparts, their policy choices are less constrained by other political actors and institutions. As their material background makes authoritarian leaders more likely to favour introducing redistributive measures, they are expected to use such strategies for political survival, leading to a decrease in economic inequality. We created and analysed a new dataset on political leaders’ socioeconomic backgrounds in authoritarian regimes and found support for our arguments. In line with recent studies on political leaders and policy outcomes, our findings suggest that leaders’ personal experiences of economic hardship greatly affect their policy choices in authoritarian countries.
Can Autocratic Power Influence Media in Democracies? Evidence from China’s Expulsion of American Journalists
Ruilin Lai
Washington University in St. Louis Working Paper, April 2023
Abstract:
Autocracies not only control domestic news outlets, but also seek to influence media abroad with the aim of shifting foreign public opinion and boosting their images internationally. This study examines whether autocratic governments are able to capture media in democracies through political pressure. Exploiting China’s sudden expulsion of American journalists in March 2020, I argue and show that U.S. news outlets report China more positively after having journalists expelled, as they want to appease the Chinese government so to restore their on-the-ground presence in the country. Further analyses confirm that the results are not driven by un-expelled media covering China less positively, and the expulsion has chilling effects on media that could have been affected. The findings highlight the direct threats posed by autocracies to free media, which are the cornerstone of democratic societies.
Do institutions matter in a crisis? Regime type and decisive responses to Covid-19
Alexander Schmotz & Oisín Tansey
Democratization, May 2023, Pages 938-959
Abstract:
Governments around the world have been implementing measures to contain the COVID-19 pandemic and ease its economic fallout, and there has been extensive variation in the speed and extent to which they have introduced new policies. This article examines the role that regime type plays in determining the decisiveness of government policies to tackle the coronavirus pandemic and its spill over effects. We hypothesize that democratic regimes may be slower to introduce restrictions on civil liberties due to a “freedom commitment” and may be faster to provide economic protections due to a “welfare commitment”. We use event history analysis and data from the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker to examine whether less democratic regimes are more likely to implement restrictions faster, and spending programmes slower. Contrary to expectations, our findings suggest that more authoritarian regimes do not implement constraints more quickly or spending more slowly than more democratic regimes. The finding holds across various regime measures and model specifications.
Infectious disease and political violence: Evidence from malaria and civil conflicts in Sub-Saharan Africa
Haohan Chen, Zifeng Wang & Enze Han
Research & Politics, June 2023
Abstract:
As an infectious disease, malaria consumes around 250 million yearly clinical cases and with more than half a million annual deaths. It has shown tremendous burden for the economic and social life of many countries around the world, particularly in the tropical and developing nations. The conventional wisdom claims that the prevalence of malaria infection either prolongs or should be positively correlated with outbreaks of civil conflicts. We contend that malaria infection should deter civil conflict occurrences because warming parties should avoid engaging each other in areas with rampant malaria infection. We test the hypothesis with 20 years of geo-referenced panel data of conflict event and malaria risk from Sub-Sahara Africa. Our result renders strong support for our hypothesis that areas with more malaria infection tends to have less civil conflicts.