Dirty Deeds
Pollution Trends and US Environmental Policy: Lessons from the Last Half Century
Joseph Shapiro
NBER Working Paper, November 2021
Abstract:
This article proposes and evaluates four hypotheses about US pollution and environmental policy over the last half century. First, air and water pollution have declined substantially, although greenhouse gas emissions have not. Second, environmental policy explains a large share of these trends. Third, much of the regulation of air and drinking water pollution has benefits that exceed costs, although the evidence for surface water pollution regulation is less clear. Fourth, while the distribution of pollution across social groups is unequal, market-based environmental policies and command-and-control policies do not appear to produce systematically different distributions of environmental outcomes. I also discuss recent innovations in methods and data that can be used to evaluate pollution trends and policies, including the increased use of environmental administrative data, statistical cost-benefit comparisons, analysis of previously understudied policies, more sophisticated analyses of pollution transport, micro-macro frameworks, and a focus on the distribution of environmental outcomes.
Disgust sensitivity and public opinion on nuclear energy
Anne-Sophie Hacquin et al.
Journal of Environmental Psychology, forthcoming
Abstract:
An increasing number of experts agree that nuclear power should be part of the solution to fight climate change as it emits little greenhouse gases, has had no negative health consequences during normal operation, and even limited consequences after accidents. However, in many countries the population is much more ambivalent about nuclear power, and tends to exaggerate the negative effects on health and the environment. We suggest that this gap between experts and the public stems in part from nuclear power triggering the behavioral immune system: a set of cognitive adaptations that aim at protecting us against pathogens by making us particularly alert to their existence, and attuned to their risks. In line with this suggestion, we find that (i) participants overestimate the risks of nuclear accidents compared to other types of disasters (Experiment 1), except for disasters that should also trigger the behavioral immune system (Experiment 2); (ii) participants were more interested in reading and sharing a news article about a nuclear accident than about other types of accidents (with the same exception, Experiment 2); (iii) participants were less willing to be in contact with an object that had been in a nuclear power plant than in a car manufacturing plant (Experiment 3); (iv) arguments showing that nuclear power plants should not elicit fears of contamination reduced the negative perception of nuclear energy (Experiment 4). This work suggests a cognitive basis for the popular rejection of nuclear power, and ways to bridge the gap between experts and the public on this topic.
Health benefits of decreases in on-road transportation emissions in the United States from 2008 to 2017
Ernani Choma et al.
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 21 December 2021
Abstract:
Decades of air pollution regulation have yielded enormous benefits in the United States, but vehicle emissions remain a climate and public health issue. Studies have quantified the vehicle-related fine particulate matter (PM2.5)-attributable mortality but lack the combination of proper counterfactual scenarios, latest epidemiological evidence, and detailed spatial resolution; all needed to assess the benefits of recent emission reductions. We use this combination to assess PM2.5-attributable health benefits and also assess the climate benefits of on-road emission reductions between 2008 and 2017. We estimate total benefits of $270 (190 to 480) billion in 2017. Vehicle-related PM2.5-attributable deaths decreased from 27,700 in 2008 to 19,800 in 2017; however, had per-mile emission factors remained at 2008 levels, 48,200 deaths would have occurred in 2017. The 74% increase from 27,700 to 48,200 PM2.5-attributable deaths with the same emission factors is due to lower baseline PM2.5 concentrations (+26%), more vehicle miles and fleet composition changes (+22%), higher baseline mortality (+13%), and interactions among these (+12%). Climate benefits were small (3 to 19% of the total). The percent reductions in emissions and PM2.5-attributable deaths were similar despite an opportunity to achieve disproportionately large health benefits by reducing high-impact emissions of passenger light-duty vehicles in urban areas. Increasingly large vehicles and an aging population, increasing mortality, suggest large health benefits in urban areas require more stringent policies. Local policies can be effective because high-impact primary PM2.5 and NH3 emissions disperse little outside metropolitan areas. Complementary national-level policies for NOx are merited because of its substantial impacts - with little spatial variability - and dispersion across states and metropolitan areas.
Measuring Firm Environmental Performance to Inform Asset Management and Standardized Disclosure
Nicholas Muller
NBER Working Paper, November 2021
Abstract:
Investing according to environmental, social, and governance (ESG) criteria is gaining momentum. Most environmental performance indices focus only on the tonnage of carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions. This paper proposes an index covering eight pollutants expressed in monetary damage. Inclusion of multiple pollutants reflects a broader range of reputational and regulatory risks. Monetization appropriately weights emissions. CO₂ dominates the mass of other pollutants, yet the marginal damages from other pollutants are larger than CO₂. In the U.S. utility sector from 2014 to 2017, indices which only track CO₂ mischaracterize firms’ environmental performance and underestimate its effect on financial outcomes relative to the multipollutant index. Dirtier firms exhibit lower share prices and higher forward returns. The effect is twice as large for the multipollutant index compared to CO₂. Analysts’ earnings forecasts for dirtier firms systematically undershoot actuals. Earnings errors are between three and five times more sensitive to the multipollutant index than to CO₂. The multipollutant index may suggest new management strategies to financial market participants relative to those based on carbon intensity. ESG disclosure standards based on the new index are more likely to affect financial outcomes, capital allocation decisions, and firm behavior than disclosure of carbon intensity.
Air pollution interacts with genetic risk to influence cortical networks implicated in depression
Zhi Li et al.
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 16 November 2021
Abstract:
Air pollution is a reversible cause of significant global mortality and morbidity. Epidemiological evidence suggests associations between air pollution exposure and impaired cognition and increased risk for major depressive disorders. However, the neural bases of these associations have been unclear. Here, in healthy human subjects exposed to relatively high air pollution and controlling for socioeconomic, genomic, and other confounders, we examine across multiple levels of brain network function the extent to which particulate matter (PM2.5) exposure influences putative genetic risk mechanisms associated with depression. Increased ambient PM2.5 exposure was associated with poorer reasoning and problem solving and higher-trait anxiety/depression. Working memory and stress-related information transfer (effective connectivity) across cortical and subcortical brain networks were influenced by PM2.5 exposure to differing extents depending on the polygenic risk for depression in gene-by-environment interactions. Effective connectivity patterns from individuals with higher polygenic risk for depression and higher exposures with PM2.5, but not from those with lower genetic risk or lower exposures, correlated spatially with the coexpression of depression-associated genes across corresponding brain regions in the Allen Brain Atlas. These converging data suggest that PM2.5 exposure affects brain network functions implicated in the genetic mechanisms of depression.
Associations between residential proximity to oil and gas extraction and hypertensive conditions during pregnancy: A difference-in-differences analysis in Texas, 1996-2009
Mary Willis et al.
International Journal of Epidemiology, forthcoming
Methods:
We utilized a population-based retrospective birth cohort in Texas (1996-2009), where mothers reside <10 km from an active or future drilling site (n = 2 845 144.) Using full-address data, we linked each maternal residence at delivery to assign exposure and evaluate this exposure with respect to gestational hypertension and eclampsia. In a difference-in-differences framework, we model the interaction between maternal health before (unexposed) or after (exposed) the start of drilling activity (exposed) and residential proximity near (0-1, >1-2 or >2-3 km) or far (≥3-10 km) from an active or future drilling site.
Results:
Among pregnant women residing 0-1 km from an active oil or gas extraction site, we estimate 5% increased odds of gestational hypertension [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.00, 1.10] and 26% increased odds of eclampsia (95% CI: 1.05, 1.51) in adjusted models. This association dissipates in the 1- to 3-km buffer zones. In restricted models, we find elevated odds ratios among maternal ages ≤35 years at delivery, maternal non-Hispanic White race, ≥30 lbs gained during pregnancy, nulliparous mothers and maternal educational attainment beyond high school.
Sustainable Use of Groundwater May Dramatically Reduce Irrigated Production of Maize, Soybean, and Wheat
Jose Lopez et al.
Earth's Future, forthcoming
Abstract:
Groundwater extraction in the United States (US) is unsustainable, making it essential to understand the impacts of limited water use on irrigated agriculture. Here, we integrate a gridded crop model with satellite observations, recharge estimates, and water survey data to assess the effects of sustainable groundwater withdrawals on US irrigated agricultural production. Our model agrees with satellite-based estimates of evapotranspiration (R2 = 0.68), as well as survey production estimates from the United States Department of Agriculture (R2 = 0.82 - 0.94 for county-level production and 0.37 - 0.54 for county-level yield). Using the optimistic assumption that groundwater extraction equals estimated effective aquifer recharge rate, we find that sustainable groundwater use decreases US irrigated production of maize, soybean, and winter wheat by 20%, 6%, and 25%, respectively. Using a more conservative assumption of groundwater availability, US irrigated production of maize, soybean, and winter wheat decreases by 45%, 37%, and 36%, respectively. The wide range of simulated losses is driven by considerable uncertainty in surface water and groundwater interactions, as well as accounting for adaptation and the many aspects of sustainability, including environmental flows. These results demonstrate the vulnerability of US irrigated agriculture to unsustainable groundwater pumping, highlighting the difficulty of expanding or even maintaining irrigated food production in the face of climate change, population growth, and shifting dietary demands. Our findings are based on reducing pumping by fallowing irrigated farmland, so alternate pumping reduction strategies or technological advances in crop genetics and irrigation technologies could produce different results.
Smart Tech, Dumb Humans: The Perils of Scaling Household Technologies
Alec Brandon et al.
University of Chicago Working Paper, November 2021
Abstract:
Smart-home technology has been heralded as an important way to increase energy conservation, but causal evidence remains scarce. We estimate the causal impact of smart thermostats on energy use using data from two novel field experiments in which a random subset of treated households were given a smart thermostat that was installed in their home free of charge. We combine this experimental data with 18 months of high-frequency data on household energy consumption in the form of more than 16 million hourly electricity and daily natural gas observations. In contrast to advertised savings based on engineering models, we find little evidence that smart thermostats have a statistically or economically significant effect on energy use. This result is robust to the inclusion of numerous controls and when the model is estimated on various subsamples of relevance for grid managers and policymakers (e.g., by hour of the day). We explore potential mechanisms using almost four million observations of system events including human interactions with their smart thermostat. Results indicate that user behavior dampens energy savings and explains the discrepancy between estimates from engineering models and those observed in our field experiments.
Environmental Justice and Coasian Bargaining: The Role of Race and Income in Lease Negotiations for Shale Gas
Christopher Timmins & Ashley Vissing
NBER Working Paper, November 2021
Abstract:
Using a unique combination of datasets and estimation techniques, we test whether private lease negotiations to extract oil and natural gas exhibit features of Coasian efficiency. We demonstrate that measures of wealth (including income, house square footage, and land acreage), typically determinants of willingness to pay for environmental quality, do affect bargaining outcomes. However, race, ethnicity, and language also play important roles after conditioning upon these variables, suggesting an environmental injustice and a breakdown of efficient Coasian bargaining. We further demonstrate that failure to negotiate protections in leases leads to increased risk of future drilling violations, which are not offset by local ordinance restrictions.
Dust storms and violent crime
Benjamin Jones
Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, forthcoming
Abstract:
Dust storms are among the largest global sources of atmospheric particulate matter and have pronounced impacts on environmental conditions and can affect individual ways-of-life. In the US, dust storm activity is generally increasing in frequency due to ongoing climate change. I shed light on a previously unknown impact of these events (on violent crimes) by exploiting their periodic occurrences as a source of exogenous environmental shocks to air pollution and daily routines. Using high-frequency data and high-dimensional fixed effects, I find strong evidence that dust storm activity is associated with violent crimes. Importantly, I show that avoidance behaviors, triggered by dust storm warnings, can largely mitigate the observed violent crime impacts. Policy implications are discussed.
Does Water Scarcity Affect Environmental Performance? Evidence from Manufacturing Facilities in Texas
Suresh Muthulingam, Suvrat Dhanorkar & Charles Corbett
Management Science, forthcoming
Abstract:
It is well known that manufacturing operations can affect the environment, but hardly any research explores whether the natural environment shapes manufacturing operations. Specifically, we investigate whether water scarcity, which results from environmental conditions, influences manufacturing firms to lower their toxic releases to the environment. We created a data set that spans 2000-2016 and includes details on the toxic emissions of 3,092 manufacturing facilities in Texas. Additionally, our data set includes measures of the water scarcity experienced by these facilities. Our econometric analysis shows that manufacturing facilities reduce their toxic releases into the environment when they have experienced drought conditions in the previous year. We examine facilities that release toxics to water as well as facilities with no toxic releases to water. We find that the reduction in total releases (to all media) is driven mainly by those facilities that release toxic chemicals to water. Further investigation at a more granular level indicates that water scarcity compels manufacturing facilities to lower their toxic releases into media other than water (i.e., land or air). The impact of water scarcity on toxic releases to water is more nuanced. A full-sample analysis fails to link water scarcity to lower toxic releases to water, but a further breakdown shows that manufacturing facilities in counties with a higher incidence of drought do lower their toxic releases to water. We also find that facilities that release toxics to water undertake more technical and input modifications to their manufacturing processes when they face water scarcity.