Dirty
Coal and oil power plant retirements in California associated with reduced preterm birth among populations nearby
Joan Casey et al.
American Journal of Epidemiology, forthcoming
Abstract:
Coal and oil power plant retirements reduce air pollution nearby, but few studies have leveraged these natural experiments for public health research. We used California Department of Public Health birth records and Energy Information Administration data from 2001-2011 to evaluate the relationship between 8 coal and oil power plant retirements and nearby preterm births ( < 37 weeks gestational age). We conducted a difference-in-differences analysis using adjusted linear mixed models that included 57,005 births–6.5% of which were preterm–to compare the probability of preterm birth before and after power plant retirement among mothers residing within 0-5 km and 5-10 km of the 8 power plants. We found that power plant retirements were associated with a decrease in the proportion of preterm birth within 5 km (-0.019, 95% CI: -0.031, -0.008) and 5-10 km (-0.015, 95% CI: -0.024, -0.007) controlling for secular trends with mothers living 10-20 km away. For the 0-5 km area, this corresponds to a reduction in preterm birth from 7.0% to 5.1%. Subgroup analyses indicated a potentially larger association among non-Hispanic Black and Asian mothers compared to non-Hispanic White and Hispanic mothers and no differences in educational attainment. Future coal and oil power plant retirements may reduce preterm birth among nearby populations.
Methane in groundwater before, during, and after hydraulic fracturing of the Marcellus Shale
E. Barth-Naftilan, J. Sohng & J.E. Saiers
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, forthcoming
Abstract:
Concern persists over the potential for unconventional oil and gas development to contaminate groundwater with methane and other chemicals. These concerns motivated our 2-year prospective study of groundwater quality within the Marcellus Shale. We installed eight multilevel monitoring wells within bedrock aquifers of a 25-km2 area targeted for shale gas development (SGD). Twenty-four isolated intervals within these wells were sampled monthly over 2 years and groundwater pressures were recorded before, during, and after seven shale gas wells were drilled, hydraulically fractured, and placed into production. Perturbations in groundwater pressures were detected at hilltop monitoring wells during drilling of nearby gas wells and during a gas well casing breach. In both instances, pressure changes were ephemeral (<24 hours) and no lasting impact on groundwater quality was observed. Overall, methane concentrations ([CH4]) ranged from detection limit to 70 mg/L, increased with aquifer depth, and, at several sites, exhibited considerable temporal variability. Methane concentrations in valley monitoring wells located above gas well laterals increased in conjunction with SGD, but CH4 isotopic composition and hydrocarbon composition (CH4/C2H6) are inconsistent with Marcellus origins for this gas. Further, salinity increased concurrently with [CH4], which rules out contamination by gas phase migration of fugitive methane from structurally compromised gas wells. Collectively, our observations suggest that SGD was an unlikely source of methane in our valley wells, and that naturally occurring methane in valley settings, where regional flow systems interact with local flow systems, is more variable in concentration and composition both temporally and spatially than previously understood.
Toxic Truth: Lead and Fertility
Karen Clay, Margarita Portnykh & Edson Severnini
NBER Working Paper, May 2018
Abstract:
Using U.S county level data on lead in air for 1978-1988 and lead in topsoil in the 2000s, this paper examines the impact of lead exposure on a critical human function with societal implications – fertility. To provide causal estimates of the effect of lead on fertility, we use two sets of instruments: i) the interaction of the timing of implementation of Clean Air Act regulations and the 1944 Interstate Highway System Plan for the panel data and ii) the 1944 Interstate Highway System Plan for the cross sectional data. We find that reductions in airborne lead between 1978 and 1988 increased fertility rates and that higher lead in topsoil decreased fertility rates in the 2000s. The latter finding is particularly concerning, because it suggests that lead may continue to impair fertility today, both in the United States and in other countries that have significant amounts of lead in topsoil.
Local natural resources and crime: Evidence from oil price fluctuations in Texas
Rodney Andrews & Monica Deza
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, July 2018, Pages 123–142
Abstract:
We exploit plausibly exogenous changes in the value of reserves in Texas's giant oil fields to determine the impact of crime in Texas counties that have reserves. Texas provides an ideal setting for this research strategy. First, Texas has the largest number of giant oil fields. Second, Texas's giant oil fields possess the greatest remaining oil potential. Third, giant oil fields are dispersed throughout the state. We find that a 1% increase in the value of oil reserves increases murder by 0.16%, robbery by 0.55% and larceny by 0.18%. Using the estimated elasticities, an average increase in the value of oil reserves (26% increase in the value of reserves) results in a 4.15% increase in murder rates, 8% increase in robbery and 4.7% increase in larceny. These effects are not trivial. We explore potential mechanisms that could be driving this increase in crime and find that an increase in the value of local oil reserves improves the local economic conditions, increases the share of young males, and increases the share of individuals residing in group quarters (e.g. temporary worker housing) of its county with no effect on the local economic conditions, demographic changes or crime rates of adjacent counties.
The economics of fishing the high seas
Enric Sala et al.
Science Advances, June 2018
Abstract:
While the ecological impacts of fishing the waters beyond national jurisdiction (the “high seas”) have been widely studied, the economic rationale is more difficult to ascertain because of scarce data on the costs and revenues of the fleets that fish there. Newly compiled satellite data and machine learning now allow us to track individual fishing vessels on the high seas in near real time. These technological advances help us quantify high-seas fishing effort, costs, and benefits, and assess whether, where, and when high-seas fishing makes economic sense. We characterize the global high-seas fishing fleet and report the economic benefits of fishing the high seas globally, nationally, and at the scale of individual fleets. Our results suggest that fishing at the current scale is enabled by large government subsidies, without which as much as 54% of the present high-seas fishing grounds would be unprofitable at current fishing rates. The patterns of fishing profitability vary widely between countries, types of fishing, and distance to port. Deep-sea bottom trawling often produces net economic benefits only thanks to subsidies, and much fishing by the world’s largest fishing fleets would largely be unprofitable without subsidies and low labor costs. These results support recent calls for subsidy and fishery management reforms on the high seas.
Mines: The local wealth and health effects of mineral mining in developing countries
Jan von der Goltz & Prabhat Barnwal
Journal of Development Economics, forthcoming
Abstract:
We assess health and wealth impacts of mineral mining using micro-data from about 800 mines in 44 developing countries. Gains in asset wealth (0.3 standard deviations) coexist with a higher incidence of health conditions linked to heavy metal toxicity: anemia among women (ten percentage points), and stunting in young children (five percentage points). Consistent results emerge from a range of distinct identification strategies. Two difference-in-difference tests exploit information on mineral and pollutant characteristics to show that observed health effects are due to pollution: impacts arise only near mines where metal contamination is to be expected, and the recovery of blood hemoglobin levels in women after childbirth shows a characteristic signature of lead toxicity. Our results add to the nascent literature on health-wealth tradeoffs near industrial operations in developing countries.
Air Pollution and Mental Health: Evidence from China
Shuai Chen, Paulina Oliva & Peng Zhang
NBER Working Paper, June 2018
Abstract:
A large body of literature estimates the effect of air pollution on health. However, most of these studies have focused on physical health, while the effect on mental health is limited. Using the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) covering 12,615 urban residents during 2014-2015, we find significantly positive effect of air pollution – instrumented by thermal inversions – on mental illness. Specifically, a one-standard-deviation (18.04 μg/m3) increase in average PM2.5 concentrations in the past month increases the probability of having a score that is associated with severe mental illness by 6.67 percentage points, or 0.33 standard deviations. Based on average health expenditures associated with mental illness and rates of treatment among those with symptoms, we calculate that these effects induce a total annual cost of USD 22.88 billion in health expenditures only. This cost is on a similar scale to pollution costs stemming from mortality, labor productivity, and dementia.
Severe Air Pollution and Labor Productivity: Evidence from Industrial Towns in China
Jiaxiu He, Haoming Liu & Alberto Salvo
American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, forthcoming
Abstract:
We examine day-to-day fluctuations in worker-level output at two manufacturing sites in China. Ambient fine-particle (PM2.5) pollution is severe but significantly variable, largely due to exogenous atmospheric ventilation. We obtain an insignificant immediate output response from concurrent (same-shift) variation in particle pollution. We then allow worker outcomes to respond to day-to-day variation in pollution with up to 30 days of delay. We uncover statistically significant adverse output effects from more prolonged exposure, but effects are not large. A substantial +10 μg/m3 PM2.5 variation sustained over 25 days reduces daily output by 1%.
Wide open spaces: Estimating the willingness to pay for adjacent preserved open space
Katie Jo Black
Regional Science and Urban Economics, July 2018, Pages 110-121
Abstract:
Each year, millions of dollars are spent transitioning open space to protected status, yet we do not know the value that existing homeowners place on adjacency to these protected land parcels. Between 2000 and 2013, the Pennsylvania Game Commission acquired over 85,000 acres across the state of Pennsylvania, thereby providing a promise of future openness for adjacent homeowners. This paper exploits the timing and spatial variation of these acquisitions to identify the housing premium associated with open space preservation. Results suggest that preservation increases the average adjacent home value by between $22,326 and $31,178. I analyze various sources of this premium and conclude that it is driven by a preserved view and not new access to public land. Further, analysis comparing preservation of the land to continuing vacancy shows that preservation is tax-neutral for local governments.