Detention
Criminal Deterrence: Evidence from an Individual-Level Analysis of 24/7 Sobriety
Beau Kilmer & Greg Midgette
Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, forthcoming
Abstract:
Decisionmakers continue to search for new ways to deter criminal behavior that do not rely on increasing the severity of punishment. This paper evaluates South Dakota's 24/7 Sobriety Program — a novel, large‐scale intervention requiring those arrested for or convicted of an alcohol‐related offense to abstain from alcohol and submit to alcohol tests multiple times daily. Those testing positive or missing a test receive a swift, certain, and moderate sanction; typically, a night or two in jail. To estimate the causal effect of the 24/7 program on the probability of rearrest or probation revocation for those arrested for a second or third driving under the influence (DUI) offense, we instrument an individual's 24/7 participation with program availability in the county of arrest. We estimate that the individual‐level probability of rearrest or probation revocation is 13.7 percentage points (49 percent; p = 0.002) lower for 24/7 participants than non‐participants 12 months after their DUI arrest. We detect substantive decreases at 24 and 36 months, but the precision of those estimates depends on model specification. These findings provide empricial support for applying “swift‐certain‐fair” sanctions to deter noncompliance in community supervision settings. This paper also provides policymakers with evidence for a new approach to reduce criminal activity among those whose alcohol use leads them to repeatedly threaten public health and safety.
Private vs. public prisons? A dynamic analysis of the long-term tradeoffs between cost-efficiency and recidivism in the US prison system
Saleh Mamun et al.
Applied Economics, forthcoming
Abstract:
Compared with the rest of the world, the US prison system is characterized by high incarceration rates, high recidivism, and substantial incarceration costs. The US has increasingly turned to private prisons, resulting in a debate concerning the efficacy of these private prisons. While the private system may produce cost savings it may have also have negative consequences including increased recidivism. Although numerous studies have investigated the cost savings associated with private prisons and their effect on recidivism, to our knowledge no work has evaluated the joint impact. In this paper we evaluate these impacts jointly within a dynamic system model, utilizing cost, incarceration and recidivism estimates from the literature. Overall, considering the tradeoff between cost efficiency and recidivism rates, we find that public prisons are less costly in the long term than private prisons. Considering a 25-year time horizon, we find that total inflation-adjusted costs are approximately 1.5% higher for private prisons than public prisons. Considering a 40-year time horizon, we find that private prisons are 3% more costly than public prisons. Thus, results suggest that estimated short-term cost efficiency provided by private prisons may not be worth the long-term consequences of potential increases in recidivism.
The Heat: Temperature, Police Behavior and the Enforcement of Law
Matt Ryan
European Journal of Law and Economics, April 2020, Pages 187–203
Abstract:
Despite ample investigation into the influence of ambient temperature on behavior, and especially on criminal activity, little research exists on the impact of temperature on police behavior. As such, this analysis tests the “heat hypothesis” over 5 years of traffic stops by the City of Pittsburgh Police Department. Across a range of specifications, police officers are more likely to issue traffic citations when temperatures are warmer — holding constant driving behavior — and the magnitude of the increase is comparable to citation rate discrepancies between black and white drivers.
The “New Fiscal Criminology”: State-Level Changes in Crime Rates and the Structure of Tax Systems
Sylwia Piatkowska et al.
Justice Quarterly, forthcoming
Abstract:
Prior research has examined the effects of social welfare on levels of crime in the U.S. The emphasis has been on how governmental support in the form of social spending may influence crime levels because it serves as a mechanism to lessen the impact of adverse financial circumstances that may stimulate criminal behavior. This study builds on prior research by assessing the impact of another mechanism that affects the distribution of economic resources: the structure of the tax system. Specifically, we incorporate the “Suits Index,” a novel measure of the progressivity of the tax system. Our analysis examines the effects of changes in the Suits Index on changes in robbery and burglary rates using data for the 50 U.S. states between 1995 and 2017. Results indicate that movement towards greater progressivity in the tax structure was associated with decreases in robbery and burglary rates, net of changes in social spending.
Ambush Killings of the Police, 1970–2018: A Longitudinal Examination of the “War on Cops” Debate
Michael White
Police Quarterly, forthcoming
Abstract:
Over the last few years, there has been a series of high-profile, premeditated ambush attacks on police, which has led some to conclude there is a “war on cops.” Unfortunately, prior research has not examined the prevalence of police ambushes over an extended period of time, and the most recent study only analyzed the phenomenon through 2013. Moreover, the “war on cops” thesis implies a very specific motivation for an ambush: hatred of police or desire to seek vengeance in response to police killings of citizens. Prior research has not sufficiently explored the motivations of ambush attacks, or whether recent trends in ambushes are linked to a “war on cops” motive. I investigate ambush killings of police from 1970 to 2018 using data from the Officer Down Memorial Page in an attempt to address these research gaps. I apply a temporal coding scheme of when the attack occurred to isolate killings of police that are consistent with the International Association of Chiefs of Police definition of an ambush. Results from linear regression show that the annual rates of ambush killings of police have declined by more than 90% since 1970. Although ambushes spiked in 2016 and 2018 to the highest rates in 20 years, interrupted time series analysis indicates no statistically significant increase post-2013. Spikes have also occurred in nonambush killings since 2014. Police leaders and researchers should monitor trends in ambush and nonambush killings of police, as the recent spikes may presage the emergence of a chronic problem.
Using structural equation modeling to explore the role of early strain on later stress responses and aggression by police officers
Don Kurtz & Vivian Hughes
Police Practice and Research, forthcoming
Abstract:
Policing is frequently identified as one of the most stressful professions and police officers are often exposed to dangerous situations and traumatic experiences on the job. Exposure to these traumatic experiences, also referred to as critical incidents, may negatively influence the psychological and physiological wellbeing of officers. In extreme cases, these negative reactions can result in deviant and criminal behavior fitting within the theoretical conceptions of General Strain Theory (GST). Few studies have explored the role of prior trauma experiences on officers’ negative stress and behavioral outcomes. This research examines the influence of child abuse and inter-parental violence on officer psychological-physiological stress responses and officer-on-officer aggression. Using Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) and data from the Police Stress and Domestic Violence in Police Families in Baltimore, Maryland, the results indicate that emotional responses to critical incidents and prior childhood exposure to abuse and violence influence negative stress responses and use of violence by officers.
Dropping out of college and dropping into crime
Christopher Dennison
Justice Quarterly, forthcoming
Abstract:
Although researchers have examined whether dropping out of high school is related to crime, very few have studied college dropouts. It has been argued that dropping out of high school leads to minimal changes in crime since dropouts were already delinquent before leaving school. Among college dropouts, however, individuals who select into college are conceivably least delinquent; therefore, dropping out might indeed represent a negative life course transition. Against this backdrop, data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health are used to examine the relationship between dropping out of college and changes in crime between adolescence and young adulthood. Most broadly, results show that dropping out of college is positively related to crime across the life course. This association is also moderated by one’s propensity to complete college, whereby those most likely to attain a degree, but who ultimately drop out, exhibit the largest increases in crime.
The impact of reentry court on recidivism: A randomized controlled trial in Harlem, New York
Lama Hassoun Ayoub
Journal of Experimental Criminology, March 2020, Pages 101–117
Objectives: This randomized controlled trial evaluates the effectiveness of the Harlem Parole Reentry Court, an innovative reentry court model implemented by the Harlem Community Justice Center, examining its impact on recidivism.
Methods: After random assignment to either the treatment or control groups, the study compares recidivism (rearrest, reconviction, and revocation) among parolees released to Upper Manhattan between 2010 and 2013. Parolees were either assigned to report to the reentry court (N = 213) or to traditional parole for the control group (N = 291).
Results: Results from logistic regression models indicate that the court significantly reduced revocations within 18 months of release, when controlling for relevant covariates. Reentry court parolees demonstrated a significant 45% reduction in revocation. There was no evidence of significant differences on rearrest or reconviction. Moderator analysis showed no significant moderating effect for risk score, age, or sex.
Open Secrecy: How Police Crackdowns and Creative Problem-Solving Brought Illegal Markets out of the Shadows
Isak Ladegaard
Social Forces, forthcoming
Abstract:
Can organized illegal activities grow stronger and more advanced in response to legal pressure? In October 2013, the FBI shut down Silk Road, a thriving e-commerce market for illegal drugs. After the shock, market actors adopted a new identity verification method that enabled mass-migration to other markets, and created websites for information distribution that reduced post-shock uncertainties. The outcome was a decentralized market in which actors could operate in “open secrecy” across multiple websites. With verifiable pseudonyms and securely obfuscated real-world identities, actors could publicly discuss, plan, and participate in illegal activities. Threats from police and opportunistic criminals persisted but were no longer crippling concerns as buyers and sellers could reasonably expect that their exchange partners would be available for future business; the illegal market could operate more like a legal one. Drawing on quantitative and qualitative data, the author argues that advances in information technology have expanded the opportunity structure for cooperation and creative problem-solving in the underworld, and therefore that shocks did not hinder but rather stimulate development in digital drug markets. Data, collected in 2013–2017, include nearly one million transactions from three illicit e-commerce markets, three million messages from eight discussion forums, and website traffic from two market-independent websites.
Long term effects of drug court participation: Evidence from a 15-year follow-up of a randomized controlled trial
Brook Kearley & Denise Gottfredson
Journal of Experimental Criminology, March 2020, Pages 27–47
Objectives: This study compares 15-year recidivism and incarceration outcomes for individuals randomly assigned to Baltimore City’s Drug Treatment Court (BCDTC) or traditional adjudication. Additionally, the study examines the moderating effect of court of assignment.
Methods: This study is based on a randomized controlled trial. Participants include 235 drug-involved offenders with substantial criminal and substance use disorder histories who were adjudicated within Baltimore City’s District and Circuit Courts. Key measures include number of arrests; convictions; person, property, drug, and violation of probation (VOP) charges; and days of incarceration. A measure of exposure time is included to account for time spent free in the community. Negative binomial regression and growth curve models test for group differences on each dependent variable over the 15-year follow-up. Additional models assess whether or not originating court moderates the treatment effect.
Results: Participation in BCDTC resulted in significantly fewer arrests, charges, and convictions across the 15-year follow-up period, including several crime-specific differences. Originating court moderated the effect of participation for convictions, such that treatment participants in the Circuit drug court had significantly better outcomes than those in the District drug court relative to their controls. Participation in BCDTC did not have a significant effect on total days of sentenced incarceration.