Criminal Disposition
Gun ownership and gun violence: A comparison of the United States and Switzerland
Wolfgang Stroebe, Pontus Leander & Arie Kruglanski
Aggression and Violent Behavior, September-October 2024
Abstract:
There is a great deal of empirical evidence from the USA, but also internationally, that country-level gun ownership is positively associated with homicide and mass shooting rates. Because Switzerland appears to be an exception to this rule, having a high level of gun ownership but a very low homicide rate and practically no mass shootings, the Swiss situation is often used as evidence that firearm availability in the USA is not a cause of its high homicide and mass shooting rate. It is not surprising that the US National Rifle Association often points to Switzerland to argue that more rules on gun ownership are not necessary. Our psychological approach to gun violence acknowledges the sentiment that “guns don't kill people, people kill people”, by agreeing that guns are only means to an end -- to use a gun for murder or a mass shooting usually requires a willingness to shoot, an intention. We examine three major differences between these countries that could contribute to the difference in homicides and mass shootings -- namely, differences in gun laws, gun culture, and in relevant societal conditions. We argue that it is the greater role guns play as symbols of individual empowerment in the USA, the greater challenges facing American notions of masculinity and most importantly, the greater level of economic deprivation (i.e., poverty) suffered by large sections of the US population that are plausible causes of the higher rate of homicides and mass shootings.
Understanding the relationship between intergenerational mobility and community violence
Olivia Mann, Kathryn Edin & Luke Shaefer
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 13 August 2024
Abstract:
Violence is a key mechanism in the reproduction of community disadvantage. The existing evidence indicates that violence in a community impacts the intergenerational mobility of its residents. The current study explores the possibility of a reverse relationship. This study provisionally tests the hypothesis that depressed intergenerational mobility in a community may also spark subsequent community violence. We deploy a county measure of intergenerational mobility captured during early adulthood for a cohort of youth born between 1980 and 1986 and raised in low-income families [R. Chetty, N. Hendren, Quart. J. Econom. 133, 1163–1228 (2018)]. We model the relationship between county mobility scores and two county-level outcomes: violent crime and homicide. We find that a county’s level of intergenerational mobility as measured by the Chetty–Hendren data is a major predictor of its rate of violent crime and homicide in 2008, when the youth in Chetty’s mobility cohort were young adults (the same age the mobility measure was captured). In fact, mobility is a significantly stronger and more consistent predictor of community violent crime and homicide rates than more commonly used factors like poverty, inequality, unemployment, and law enforcement presence.
Implicit bias training for police: Evaluating impacts on enforcement disparities
Robert Worden et al.
Law and Human Behavior, forthcoming
Method: A cluster randomized controlled trial using the stepped wedge design was applied to 14,471 officers in the New York City Police Department, with a 1-day training delivered to clusters of police commands between May 2018 and April 2019 and outcomes measured with police records of individual events from April 2018 to May 2019. Police records were supplemented with survey data on 1,973 officers matched to administrative data. For each type of enforcement action, the likelihood that the action involved or was taken against Black or Hispanic suspects, respectively, relative to White suspects was estimated, controlling for potential confounders. Additional analysis allowed for estimating training effects of different magnitudes for Black, Hispanic, and White officers and for officers with greater motivation to act without prejudice or greater concern about discrimination.
Results: None of the estimated training effects achieved statistical significance at the .05 level.
Life after life: Recidivism among individuals formerly sentenced to mandatory juvenile life without parole
Colleen Sbeglia et al.
Journal of Research on Adolescence, forthcoming
Abstract:
In Miller v. Alabama (2012), the Supreme Court abolished mandatory juvenile life without parole (JLWOP) sentences and subsequently decided that the ruling applied retroactively (Montgomery v. Louisiana, 2016), effectively rendering thousands of inmates eligible for resentencing and potential release from prison. In its decisions, the Court cited developmental science, noting that youth, by virtue of their transient immaturity, are less culpable and more amenable to rehabilitation relative to their adult counterparts. Specifically, the Court notes adolescents' propensity for impulsive action, sensitivity to social influence, and difficulty understanding long-term consequences. Even so, these rulings raised concerns regarding the consequences of releasing prisoners who had committed heinous crimes as juveniles. Several years after the Court's decision, preliminary data are now available to shed light on rates of recidivism among those released. The current paper comprises three goals. First, we discuss the science of adolescent development and how it intersects with legal practice, contextualizing the Court's decision. Second, we present recidivism data from a sample of individuals formerly sentenced to JLWOP in Pennsylvania who were resentenced and released under Miller and Montgomery (N = 287). Results indicate that 15 individuals received new criminal charges up to 7 years postrelease (5.2%), the majority of which were nonviolent offenses. This low rate of recidivism is consistent with the developmental science documenting compromised decision-making during the adolescent years, followed by desistance from criminal behavior in adulthood. Lastly, we discuss the importance of interdisciplinary collaborations between researchers and legal practitioners, as well as critical future avenues of research in this area.
Whose Help Is on the Way? The Importance of Individual Police Officers in Law Enforcement Outcomes
Emily Weisburst
Journal of Human Resources, July 2024, Pages 1122-1149
Abstract:
Police discretion has large potential consequences for public trust and safety; however, little is known about the extent of this discretion. I show that arrests critically depend on which officer responds to a 911 call. One standard deviation increase in officer arrest propensity raises arrest likelihood by 40 percent. High‐arrest officers are more likely to be white and have less experience. I find mixed evidence that arrest propensity is related to arrest quality. High‐arrest officers use force more often and make more low‐level arrests, while they also have a higher share of low‐level arrests that result in conviction.
Crime and the EITC
Brigham Brau et al.
University of North Carolina Working Paper, August 2024
Abstract:
We examine the effects of an annual government social safety net payment on crime by leveraging geographic and intertemporal variation in the magnitude and timing of earned income tax credit (EITC) payments, combined with crime micro-data. We find that drug-related crimes increase somewhat whereas burglary and robbery decrease substantially within three weeks following peak EITC payments. Non-economic crimes, such as arson and sexual offenses, remain unchanged. Leveraging additional temporal variation in EITC disbursements induced by the PATH Act in 2017 confirms our findings.
Agency Incentives and Disparate Revenue Collection: Evidence from Chicago Parking Tickets
Benjamin Pyle, James Reeves & Elizabeth Luh
Boston University Working Paper, July 2024
Abstract:
We leverage a sharp 2012 parking fine increase for failing to purchase vehicle registration to examine disparate ticketing patterns across enforcement agencies in Chicago. Using an event-study framework, we find that Chicago police increased their enforcement of car registration non-compliance in Black relative to non-Black neighborhoods, with no observed disparate response for non-police enforcement agencies. This disparity is unexplained by differences in non-compliance and is instead driven by departmental revenue incentives and lower marginal search costs in Black neighborhoods. Disparate enforcement also exacerbated existing gaps in financial instability, including increased rates of ticket non-payment and bankruptcy filings in Black neighborhoods.
An experimental test of the contagious fire thesis in policing
John DeCarlo, Eric Dlugolenski & David Myers
Journal of Criminal Justice, July-August 2024
Methods: Officers were randomly assigned to one of two conditions: a treatment group, where the officers were exposed to simulated gunfire from fellow officers (confederates), and a control group, which did not have this stimulus. One hundred and sixty-nine officers from police departments in Arizona, Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico participated in the experiment.
Results: Peer officer gunfire significantly and substantially influenced participant shooting behaviors -- participants were over 11 times more likely to fire their weapons and discharged approximately 72% more rounds in the presence of gunfire.
Finding the path of least resistance: An examination of officer communication tactics and their impact on suspect compliance
Jacob Foster et al.
Criminology & Public Policy, August 2024, Pages 639-662
Abstract:
This study investigated the impact of patrol officer communication tactics on suspect compliance by using Systematic Social Observation (SSO) to code 438 body-worn camera and dashcam video recordings from two police agencies. Specifically, we examined officer tenor/demeanor, use of noncoercive directives, use of verbal coercion, and accusations, while controlling for a host of suspect and situational factors. Results showed that when officers presented a positive tenor/demeanor or employed noncoercive verbal tactics, suspects were significantly more likely to comply. Conversely, use of coercive verbal tactics and accusatory language did not have a significant impact on suspect compliance. In addition, negative suspect demeanor, suspect impairment, and suspect elevated emotional state negatively affected compliance.
The particular and diffuse effects of negative interactions on participation: Evidence from responses to police killings
Cody Drolc & Kelsey Shoub
Policy Studies Journal, August 2024, Pages 623-646
Abstract:
The relationship between the public and local government is crucial for the success of government in carrying out its duties. Despite this, the public is not always willing to engage with government. Previous research tells us that negative personal bureaucratic interactions can politically demobilize. However, little is known about whether feedback effects on participation are particular to offending government agencies or similarly felt by other organizations in a community. Building on studies of policy feedback, this study investigates how police killings, a form of community police contact, influence the public's willingness to engage with both local police and other local public services. Negative events, even when not directly experienced, disempower the public and undermine legitimacy, depressing participation. We test the effects of policing killings on participation using both observational data on 911 calls and 311 requests and a survey experiment where we manipulate exposure to a community police killing. We find evidence of decreased participation with local police and local government more broadly, contributing to our understanding of policy feedback, policing, and provision of public services.