Crime Sprees
The Birth Lottery of History: Arrest over the Life Course of Multiple Cohorts Coming of Age, 1995-2018
Roland Neil & Robert Sampson
American Journal of Sociology, March 2021, Pages 1127-1178
Abstract:
This article advances and tests hypotheses on arrest in the lives of 1,057 individuals from an original longitudinal study of multiple birth cohorts who came of age during a period of considerable social change in the last quarter-century. The authors show that large cohort differences in the course of arrest arise from changing macrohistorical environments rather than dispositional, demographic, socioeconomic, or neighborhood differences in childhood. Further, the impact of two leading explanations of crime -- socioeconomic disadvantage and low self-control -- depends on the historical timing of when children reach late adolescence and early adulthood. Cohort fortunes diverge mainly as a result of when both crime rates and police enforcement -- especially for drug offenses -- unexpectedly fell. The results quantify the power of social change and contribute a new understanding of inter- and intracohort inequalities in growing up during the era of mass incarceration and the great American crime decline.
Endogenous Driving Behavior in Tests of Racial Profiling
Jesse Kalinowski, Matthew Ross & Stephen Ross
NBER Working Paper, May 2021
Abstract:
African-American motorists may adjust their driving in response to increased scrutiny by police. In daylight, when their race is more easily observable, minority motorists are the only group less likely to have fatal motor vehicle accidents. In Massachusetts and Tennessee, we find that African-Americans are the only group of stopped motorists with slower speeds in daylight. Consistent with an illustrative model, these speed shifts are concentrated at higher percentiles of the distribution. Calibration of this model indicates this behavior creates substantial bias in conventional tests of discrimination that rely on changes in the odds a stopped motorist is a minority.
Crossroads in juvenile justice: The impact of initial processing decision on youth 5 years after first arrest
Elizabeth Cauffman et al.
Development and Psychopathology, May 2021, Pages 700-713
Abstract:
The current study advances past research by studying the impact of juvenile justice decision making with a geographically and ethnically diverse sample (N = 1,216) of adolescent boys (ages 13-17 years) for the 5 years following their first arrest. Importantly, all youth in the study were arrested for an eligible offense of moderate severity (e.g., assault, theft) to evaluate whether the initial decision to formally (i.e., sentenced before a judge) or informally (i.e., diverted to community service) process the youth led to differences in outcomes. The current study also advanced past research by using a statistical approach that controlled for a host of potential preexisting vulnerabilities that could influence both the processing decision and the youth's outcomes. Our findings indicated that youth who were formally processed during adolescence were more likely to be re-arrested, more likely to be incarcerated, engaged in more violence, reported a greater affiliation with delinquent peers, reported lower school enrollment, were less likely to graduate high school within 5 years, reported less ability to suppress aggression, and had lower perceptions of opportunities than informally processed youth. Importantly, these findings were not moderated by the age of the youth at his first arrest or his race and ethnicity. These results have important implications for juvenile justice policy by indicating that formally processing youth not only is costly, but it can reduce public safety and reduce the adolescent's later potential contributions to society.
Impacts of California Proposition 47 on crime in Santa Monica, California
Jennifer Crodelle et al.
PLoS ONE, May 2021
Abstract:
We examine patterns of reported crime in Santa Monica, California before and after the passage of Proposition 47, a 2014 initiative that reclassified some non-violent felonies as misdemeanors. We also investigate impacts of the opening of four new light rail stations in 2016 and of increased community-based policing starting in late 2018. Our statistical analyses of reclassified crimes - larceny, fraud, possession of narcotics, forgery, receiving/possessing stolen property - and non-reclassified ones are based on publicly available reported crime data from 2006 to 2019. These analyses examine reported crime at various levels: city-wide, within eight neighborhoods, and within a 450-meter radius of the new transit stations. Monthly reported reclassified crimes increased city-wide by approximately 15% after enactment of Proposition 47, with a significant drop observed in late 2018. Downtown exhibited the largest overall surge. Reported non-reclassified crimes fell overall by approximately 9%. Areas surrounding two new train stations, including Downtown, saw significant increases in reported crime after train service began. While reported reclassified crimes increased after passage of Proposition 47, non-reclassified crimes, for the most part, decreased or stayed constant, suggesting that Proposition 47 may have impacted reported crime in Santa Monica. Reported crimes decreased in late 2018 concurrent with the adoption of new community-based policing measures. Follow-up studies needed to confirm long-term trends may be challenging due to the COVID-19 pandemic that drastically changed societal conditions. While our research detects changes in reported crime, it does not provide causative explanations. Our work, along with other considerations relevant to public utility, respect for human rights, and existence of socioeconomic disparities, may be useful to law enforcement and policymakers to assess the overall effect of Proposition 47.
Have U.S. Gun Buyback Programs Misfired?
Toshio Ferrazares, Joseph Sabia & Mark Anderson
NBER Working Paper, May 2021
Abstract:
Gun buyback programs (GBPs), which use public funds to purchase civilians' privately-owned firearms, aim to reduce gun violence. However, little is known about their effects on firearm-related crime or deaths. Using data from the National Incident Based Reporting System, we find no evidence that GBPs reduce gun crime. Given our estimated null findings, with 95 percent confidence, we can rule out decreases in firearm-related crime of greater than 1.3 percent during the year following a buyback. Using data from the National Vital Statistics System, we also find no evidence that GBPs reduce suicides or homicides where a firearm was involved.
Ban-the-Box Measures Help High-Crime Neighborhoods
Daniel Shoag & Stan Veuger
Journal of Law and Economics, February 2021, Pages 85-105
Abstract:
Many localities have in recent years regulated the use of questions about criminal history in hiring, or "banned the box." We show that these regulations increased employment of residents in high-crime neighborhoods by up to 4 percent, consistent with the central objective of these measures. This effect can be seen in both aggregate employment patterns for high-crime neighborhoods and commuting patterns to workplace destinations with this type of ban. The increases are particularly large in the public sector and in lower-wage jobs. This is the first nationwide evidence that these policies do indeed increase employment opportunities in neighborhoods with many ex-offenders.
How Cohorts Changed Crime Rates, 1980-2016
William Spelman
Journal of Quantitative Criminology, forthcoming
Methods: Use a panel of state age-arrest data and frequently used economic, social, and criminal justice system covariates to estimate a proxy or characteristic function for current period effects. Combine these results with national age-arrest data to estimate nationwide age, current period, and birth cohort effects on crime rates for 1980-2016.
Results: Criminal activity steadily declined between the 1916 and 1945 birth cohorts. It increased among Baby Boomers and Generation X, then dropped rapidly among Millennials, born after 1985. The pattern was similar for all index crimes. Period effects were mostly responsible for the late 1980s crack boom and the 1990s crime drop, but age and cohort effects were primarily responsible for crime rate reductions after 2000. In general, birth cohort and current period effects are about equally important in determining crime rates.
Data-informed crime prevention at convenience stores in Atlantic City
Leslie Kennedy, Joel Caplan & Grant Drawve
Police Practice and Research, forthcoming
Abstract:
The Atlantic City Police Department intervened to reduce robberies with an evidence-based approach grounded in problem-oriented policing. Informed by risk terrain modeling and hot spot analysis, police commanders implemented a place-based intervention focused around convenience stores. Target areas throughout the city were reprioritized each month to create a dynamic deployment strategy that efficiently allocated resources to the most vulnerable places. Risk reduction actions, such as business checks, were favored over law enforcement against people. Robberies significantly decreased by over 37% within four months. There was a significant spatial diffusion of benefits and there were fewer arrests, as should be expected with fewer crimes and a tactical place-based, not person-oriented, approach. Implications for policy and practice are discussed within the contexts of rapid evidence-based police responses to urgent crime problems, police culture, and data analytics.
Supporting social hierarchy is associated with White police officers' use of force
Jillian Swencionis, Enrique Pouget & Phillip Atiba Goff
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 4 May 2021
Abstract:
Three studies translate social dominance theory to policing, testing the relationship between individual officers' endorsement of social hierarchies and their tendency to use force against residents. This article demonstrates a link between officer psychological factors and force. Because police are empowered to use force to maintain social order, and because White officers hold a dominant racial identity, we hypothesized social dominance orientation (SDO) would relate to force positively for White officers. For Black officers, we hypothesized a weak relationship between SDO and force, if any. To test these predictions, we examined the relationships between SDO and force using negative binomial regression models stratified by officer race. In an eastern city, SDO relates to force incidents positively for White officers and negatively for Black officers. In a southern city, SDO relates to force positively for White officers, and not significantly for Black officers. Stratified by race and rank, a second eastern city shows a marginally significant, positive SDO/force relationship for White patrol officers, and no significant SDO/force relationship for Black patrol officers. Finally, testing our hypotheses on a dataset pooled across these cities revealed a positive SDO/force relationship among White officers, and no significant SDO/force relationship among Black officers. These findings are consistent with our hypotheses and suggest a need to examine the role that maintaining social hierarchies plays in police behaviors. Future research must continue to investigate these relationships, especially with larger samples of non-White officers, and information about officers' patrol environments.
Acoustic gunshot detection systems: A quasi-experimental evaluation in St. Louis, MO
Dennis Mares & Emily Blackburn
Journal of Experimental Criminology, June 2021, Pages 193-215
Methods: The study design is a quasi-experimental longitudinal panel study. We measure a variety of gun-related offenses across multiple treatment and control neighborhoods using a difference-in-difference approach. Because treatment neighborhoods were added to the experiment over time, changing experimental conditions, three separate study periods were examined.
Results: Results indicate AGDS has a mixed relationship to police response time and does not significantly reduce violent crime levels in any of the study periods. We do find consistent and substantial reductions (around 30%) in citizen-initiated calls for service for shots fired, but once new calls for AGDS are added, an overall 80% increase in gunshot responses is found.
A Beastly Bargain: A Cost-Benefit Analysis of Prison-Based Dog-Training Programs in Florida
Barbara Cooke et al.
Prison Journal, June 2021, Pages 239-261
Abstract:
Dog-training programs have become a popular form of alternative prison programming. One of the reported benefits of these programs is their low cost to the criminal justice system. Very little research has been conducted on their effects on offenders, and, to date, no cost-benefit analyses have been reported. This article presents a cost-benefit analysis using program cost and updated recidivism results from an evaluation of dog-training programs. The analyses projected that, for every criminal justice system dollar spent on the dog-training programs, between $2,877 and $5,353 were saved. These findings suggest that dog-training programs could be cost-beneficial.