Findings

Counterfactual

Kevin Lewis

June 09, 2012

The Wizard of Oil: Abraham James, the Harmonial Wells, and the Psychometric History of the Oil Industry

Rochelle Raineri Zuck
Journal of American Studies, May 2012, Pages 313-336

Abstract:
American spiritualism and the oil industry developed around the same time and in relatively close geographic proximity. Both nineteenth-century phenomena were invested in a belief in the unseen, whether in the form of deceased loved ones or of underground oil reserves. Spiritualists such as Abraham James turned to the oil industry because of its lucrative financial opportunities and because of its potential to demonstrate the "practical" applications of spiritualism and Harmonial philosophy. Spiritualism offered an alternative to evangelical Christian and classical republican conceptions of industry, and a vibrant communication network through which events in the oil fields could be related to the general public. Reading accounts of James's work as an "oil wizard" reveals the industrial aspirations of spiritualism and the psychometric aspects of the oil industry, both of which have been largely erased in twentieth-century historiography. Spiritualist publications, newspapers, technical manuals, and popular accounts of the oil industry throughout the nineteenth century produced James as a new kind of male medium, capable of meeting the exigencies of the oil fields. He proved infinitely reproducible as an agent of "practical spiritualism" and was discussed alongside the other drillers, operators, laborers, teamsters, and investors at work in the oil region. As petroleum geology began to establish itself as a discipline in the early twentieth century, accounts of the early oil industry reframed James, along with other practitioners of divination, as an amusing, if somewhat embarrassing, anomaly in an attempt to distinguish the modern "scientific" oil industry from its chaotic and superstitious beginnings. While later historians have offered a more sympathetic reading of divination's role in the oil fields, James and his Harmonial wells have largely disappeared from the historical record. Yet, despite scientific innovation and revisionist history, the oil industry still bears traces of its psychometric past and must contend with the ways in which its future is dependent on successfully channeling the unseen.

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Sweeping dishonesty under the rug: How unethical actions lead to forgetting of moral rules

Lisa Shu & Francesca Gino
Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, June 2012, Pages 1164-1177

Abstract:
Dishonest behavior can have various psychological outcomes. We examine whether one consequence could be the forgetting of moral rules. In 4 experiments, participants were given the opportunity to behave dishonestly, and thus earn undeserved money, by over-reporting their performance on an ability-based task. Before the task, they were exposed to moral rules (i.e., an honor code). Those who cheated were more likely to forget the moral rules after behaving dishonestly, even though they were equally likely to remember morally irrelevant information (Experiment 1). Furthermore, people showed moral forgetting only after cheating could be enacted but not before cheating (Experiment 2), despite monetary incentives to recall the rules accurately (Experiment 3). Finally, moral forgetting appears to result from decreased access to moral rules after cheating (Experiment 4).

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An Experimental Investigation of Possible Memory Biases Affecting Support for Racial Health Care Policy

Philip Mazzocco & Ryan Brunner
American Journal of Public Health, May 2012, Pages 1002-1005

Objectives: We aimed to test the theory that estimates of racial disparities may be based on small recalled samples of specific individuals (Black vs White), a strategy likely to lead to underestimates of true racial disparities and a corresponding opposition to race-focused health care policies.

Methods: We asked a sample of White adults to list the first 5 Black and White individuals who came to mind, and then measured support for various race-focused health care policies.

Results: Analyses indicated that the Black individuals recalled by participants tended to be more famous and wealthy than their White counterparts. Furthermore, the tendency to list wealthier Black individuals predicted opposition to progressive racial health care programs. A follow-up study demonstrated that support for certain race-focused health care policies could be increased by informing Whites of potential memory biases.

Conclusions: The survival and success of minority health care policies depend partially on public acceptance. Education regarding continuing racial disparities may help to increase support for race-focused health care policies.

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Evaluating ritual efficacy: Evidence from the supernatural

Cristine Legare & André Souza
Cognition, July 2012, Pages 1-15

Abstract:
Rituals pose a cognitive paradox: although widely used to treat problems, rituals are causally opaque (i.e., they lack a causal explanation for their effects). How is the efficacy of ritual action evaluated in the absence of causal information? To examine this question using ecologically valid content, three studies (N = 162) were conducted in Brazil, a cultural context in which rituals called simpatias are used to treat a great variety of problems ranging from asthma to infidelity. Using content from existing simpatias, experimental simpatias were designed to manipulate the kinds of information that influences perceptions of efficacy. A fourth study (N = 68) with identical stimuli was conducted with a US sample to assess the generalizability of the findings across two different cultural contexts. The results provide evidence that information reflecting intuitive causal principles (i.e., repetition of procedures, number of procedural steps) and transcendental influence (i.e., presence of religious icons) affects how people evaluate ritual efficacy.

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Steps, Stages, and Structure: Finding Compensatory Order in Scientific Theories

Bastiaan Rutjens et al.
Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, forthcoming

Abstract:
Stage theories are prominent and controversial in science. One possible reason for their appeal is that they provide order and predictability. Participants in Experiment 1 rated stage theories as more orderly and predictable (but less credible) than continuum theories. In Experiments 2-5, we showed that order threats increase the appeal of stage theories of grief (Experiment 2) and moral development (Experiments 4 and 5). Experiment 3 yielded similar results for a stage theory on Alzheimer's disease characterized by predictable decline, suggesting that preference for stage theories is independent of valence. Experiment 4 showed that the effect of threat on theory preference was mediated by the motivated perception of order, and Experiment 5 revealed that it is particularly the fixed order of stages that increases their appeal.

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Cognitive Sophistication Does Not Attenuate the Bias Blind Spot

Richard West, Russell Meserve & Keith Stanovich
Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, forthcoming

Abstract:
The so-called bias blind spot arises when people report that thinking biases are more prevalent in others than in themselves. Bias turns out to be relatively easy to recognize in the behaviors of others, but often difficult to detect in one's own judgments. Most previous research on the bias blind spot has focused on bias in the social domain. In 2 studies, we found replicable bias blind spots with respect to many of the classic cognitive biases studied in the heuristics and biases literature (e.g., Tversky & Kahneman, 1974). Further, we found that none of these bias blind spots were attenuated by measures of cognitive sophistication such as cognitive ability or thinking dispositions related to bias. If anything, a larger bias blind spot was associated with higher cognitive ability. Additional analyses indicated that being free of the bias blind spot does not help a person avoid the actual classic cognitive biases. We discuss these findings in terms of a generic dual-process theory of cognition.

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Geographic Memory Bubbles: Recall of the Fifty United States

James Reffel & Kelly Wells
Current Psychology, June 2012, Pages 212-220

Abstract:
The participants (N = 180) in this study resided in two different states (i.e., North Dakota (ND) and Georgia (GA)). Each participant completed two tasks in a counterbalanced order: 1) free recall of the fifty United States and 2) recall of the fifty United States using a numbered map of the United States where they matched the state name to the actual state on the map. There were significant differences in recall by task. Also, there were significant chi-square values and a significant interaction for the states recalled by ND participants and GA participants. Participants demonstrated high recall (70 % or higher) for the 5-7 states surrounding their state of residence (e.g., primary geographic memory bubble). All participants had high recall for the states of WA, CA, NV, TX, FL, ME, AK and HI (e.g., secondary geographic memory bubble). The implications of these results relating to geographic illiteracy, instruction, and memory are discussed.

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Unrecognized Changes in the Self Contribute to Exaggerated Judgments of External Decline

Richard Eibach, Lisa Libby & Joyce Ehrlinger
Basic and Applied Social Psychology, May/June 2012, Pages 193-203

Abstract:
People commonly perceive social conditions as declining. We propose that perceptions of social decline are often a consequence of a bias whereby people mistake change in themselves for change in the world. The present research demonstrates that common personal changes such as the parenthood transition (Studies 1-2) and physical aging (Study 3) may increase a person's sensitivity to dangers and thereby contribute to an illusory perception that external dangers are increasing. We use experimental models of the hypothesized change processes to test whether these common personal changes may contribute to judgments of social decline.

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Caffeine increases false memory in nonhabitual consumers

Caroline Mahoney et al.
Journal of Cognitive Psychology, June 2012, Pages 420-427

Abstract:
Insight into caffeine's equivocal effects on memory can be derived from work suggesting both emotional arousal and psychosocial stress increase false memory rates without increasing veridical memory. This study investigated how a range of caffeine doses affect veridical and false memory formation in nonhabitual consumers. A double-blind, repeated-measures design with caffeine (0 mg, 100 mg, 200 mg, 400 mg caffeine) was used to examine memory using the Deese-Roediger-McDermott (DRM) paradigm. Results showed that caffeine modulated arousal levels, peaking at 200 mg and returning to near baseline levels at 400 mg. Main effects of caffeine demonstrated higher critical lure recall and recognition ratings (i.e., false memory) as a function of dose, again peaking at 200 mg. Those who showed the highest arousal increases as a function of caffeine also tended to produce the highest false recall and recognition rates. Veridical memory was not affected. Results demonstrate that consumption of as little as 100 mg of caffeine elicits reliable inverted-U shape changes in arousal and, in turn, false memories in individuals who do not habitually consume caffeine.

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Inferring facts from fiction: Reading correct and incorrect information affects memory for related information

Andrew Butler, Nancy Dennis & Elizabeth Marsh
Memory, forthcoming

Abstract:
People can acquire both true and false knowledge about the world from fictional stories. The present study explored whether the benefits and costs of learning about the world from fictional stories extend beyond memory for directly stated pieces of information. Of interest was whether readers would use correct and incorrect story references to make deductive inferences about related information in the story, and then integrate those inferences into their knowledge bases. Participants read stories containing correct, neutral, and misleading references to facts about the world; each reference could be combined with another reference that occurred in a later sentence to make a deductive inference. Later they answered general knowledge questions that tested for these deductive inferences. The results showed that participants generated and retained the deductive inferences regardless of whether the inferences were consistent or inconsistent with world knowledge, and irrespective of whether the references were placed consecutively in the text or separated by many sentences. Readers learn more than what is directly stated in stories; they use references to the real world to make both correct and incorrect inferences that are integrated into their knowledge bases.

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Scenting movie theatre commercials: The impact of scent and pictures on brand evaluations and ad recall

May Lwin & Maureen Morrin
Journal of Consumer Behaviour, forthcoming

Abstract:
We utilize a novel advertising context - commercials seen in a simulated movie theater setting while ambient scent is emitted into the atmosphere - to explore the effects of multisensory cues on brand evaluation and advertising recall. Although both pictorial and olfactory cues enhance brand evaluations and ad recall overall, we find that olfactory (vs pictorial) cues generate more positive feelings toward the brand and enhance recall to a greater extent. We also find that, after a long time delay, re-experiencing the scent activates pictures' ability to facilitate recall. Theoretical and managerial implications are discussed.

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On Near Misses and Completed Tasks: The Nature of Relief

Kate Sweeny & Kathleen Vohs
Psychological Science, May 2012, Pages 464-468

Abstract:
What is the nature and function of relief? Relief has been studied little in psychological science despite its familiarity and pervasiveness. Two studies revealed that relief can result from two distinct situations: the narrow avoidance of an aversive outcome (near-miss relief) and completion of an onerous or aversive event (task-completion relief). Study 1 found that recollections of near-miss relief were marked by more downward counterfactual thoughts and greater feelings of social isolation than recollections of task-completion relief. Study 2 experimentally elicited the two types of relief and found mediational evidence that relief following near misses elicits feelings of social isolation via its stimulation of counterfactual thinking. That near-miss relief is characterized by counterfactual thinking suggests that it prompts people to contemplate how to avert similar experiences in the future, whereas task-completion relief may serve to reinforce endurance during difficult tasks.

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Inconsistent vs consistent right-handers' performance on an episodic memory task: Evidence from the California Verbal Learning Test

Olivia Chu, Christopher Abeare & Matthew Bondy
Laterality: Asymmetries of Body, Brain and Cognition, May/June 2012, Pages 306-317

Abstract:
Inconsistent handedness is associated with better memory performance on episodic memory tasks than consistent handedness. The present study further explored this difference in memory related to handedness by administering a measure that is used in clinical settings to assess different aspects of long-term memory. The results indicated that inconsistent right-handed individuals recalled and recognised more words on the California Verbal Learning Test-II than consistent right-handed individuals. Inconsistent right-handers also showed better performance than consistent right-handers on measures of source recognition. The results of this study further extend the effects of handedness on memory to the clinical setting because the CVLT-II is a measure used extensively in clinical neuropsychology.

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It's Not Whether You Win or Lose; It's How The Game is Played: The Influence of Suspenseful Sports Programming on Advertising

Colleen Bee & Robert Madrigal
Journal of Advertising, Spring 2012, Pages 47-58

Abstract:
The current research investigates the interplay of program suspense, game outcome, advertisement placement, and ad execution on viewer reactions to advertising embedded in sports programming. In support of excitation transfer theory, results indicate that ad emotional response, attitude toward the ad, and attitude toward the brand are heightened immediately following a suspenseful sporting event. In addition, when considering both program suspense and game outcome, only program suspense was found to influence ad responses. Findings also indicate that congruency between program suspense and ad suspense moderates the influence of programming on responses to advertising such that an effect is found only in the context of suspenseful programming with suspenseful advertising.

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Lights, Camera, Music, Interaction! Interactive Persuasion in E-commerce

Qian Xu & Shyam Sundar
Communication Research, forthcoming

Abstract:
Heightened interactivity and excitement characterize much of our online browsing, especially when it involves shopping on e-commerce websites. Interactivity is said to affect users' engagement with the website by expanding their perceptual bandwidth (Sundar, 2007), much like the effect of optimal physiological arousal on cognitive functioning (Kahneman, 1973). We examine the direct and combinatory effects of interactivity and arousal on consumers' engagement, attitudes, and behavioral intentions in an e-commerce website through a 3 (interactivity: low, medium, high) × 3 (arousal: control, low, high) between-participants experiment (N = 186). Higher levels of interactivity were found to generate more favorable attitudes and behavioral intentions toward both the website and the product. Interactivity and arousal differed in their effects on various aspects of website engagement. The study also identified several mediators explicating the theoretical mechanism underlying the influence of interactivity on purchase likelihood.

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Newspaper Reports and Consumer Choice: Evidence from the Do Not Call Registry

Khim-Yong Goh, Kai-Lung Hui & Ivan Png
Management Science, September 2011, Pages 1640-1654

Abstract:
Despite annual expenditures on public relations exceeding $19.42 billion, U.S. businesses lack practical guidance about the effectiveness of publicity in mass media. Here, we assemble a rich and novel data set to gauge the impact of news reports on consumer sign-ups with the U.S. Do Not Call (DNC) Registry. Using multiple identification strategies, we found robust evidence that news reports increased consumer registrations. Specifically, a 1% increase in the number of news reports increased DNC registrations by 0.018%. The impact increased with mention of the toll-free telephone number and URL, but decreased with the length of the headline and main text. Furthermore, we found evidence that reports affect behavior through persuasion as well as information - the impact on registration was higher for reports that mentioned the number of other people registering. Finally, the impact of news reports on consumer registration was stronger in national than local newspapers and in politically neutral and Democrat than Republican newspapers.


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