Clueless
Your Understanding Is My Understanding: Evidence for a Community of Knowledge
Steven Sloman & Nathaniel Rabb
Psychological Science, forthcoming
Abstract:
In four experiments, we tested the community-of-knowledge hypothesis, that people fail to distinguish their own knowledge from other people’s knowledge. In all the experiments, despite the absence of any actual explanatory information, people rated their own understanding of novel natural phenomena as higher when they were told that scientists understood the phenomena than when they were told that scientists did not yet understand them. In Experiment 2, we found that this occurs only when people have ostensible access to the scientists’ explanations; the effect does not occur when the explanations exist but are held in secret. In Experiment 3, we further ruled out two classes of alternative explanations (one appealing to task demands and the other proposing that judgments were mediated by inferences about a phenomenon’s understandability). In Experiment 4, we ruled out the possibility that the effect could be attributed to a pragmatic inference.
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Weather and the Psychology of Purchasing Outdoor Movie Tickets
Lukas Buchheim & Thomas Kolaska
Management Science, forthcoming
Abstract:
The consequences of many economic decisions materialize only in the future. To make informed choices in such decision problems, consumers need to anticipate the likelihood of future states of the world, the state dependence of their preferences, and the choice alternatives that may become relevant. This complex task may expose consumers to psychological biases like extrapolative expectations, projection bias, or salience. We test whether customers are affected by such biases when they buy advance tickets for an outdoor movie theater, a real-world situation that, because of the availability of reliable weather forecasts, closely resembles a stylized decision problem under risk. We find that customers’ decisions are heavily influenced by the weather at the time of purchase, even though the latter is irrelevant for the experience of visiting the theater in the future. The empirical evidence cannot be fully explained by a range of candidate rational explanations, but is consistent with the presence of the aforementioned psychological mechanisms.
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Welton Chang et al.
Judgment and Decision Making, September 2016, Pages 509–526
Abstract:
The heuristics-and-biases research program highlights reasons for expecting people to be poor intuitive forecasters. This article tests the power of a cognitive-debiasing training module (“CHAMPS KNOW”) to improve probability judgments in a four-year series of geopolitical forecasting tournaments sponsored by the U.S. intelligence community. Although the training lasted less than one hour, it consistently improved accuracy (Brier scores) by 6 to 11% over the control condition. Cognitive ability and practice also made largely independent contributions to predictive accuracy. Given the brevity of the training tutorials and the heterogeneity of the problems posed, the observed effects are likely to be lower-bound estimates of what could be achieved by more intensive interventions. Future work should isolate which prongs of the multipronged CHAMPS KNOW training were most effective in improving judgment on which categories of problems.
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How Traumatic Violence Permanently Changes Shopping Behavior
Ozge Sigirci, Marc Rockmore & Brian Wansink
Frontiers in Psychology, September 2016
Abstract:
Traumatic experiences – such as combat, living in a conflict country or war-torn nation, or experiencing a violent crime or natural disaster – change social relationships and may also influence a life-time of consumer relationships with brands and shopping. Our focus on this previously overlooked area is centered on an analysis of the long-term shopping habits of 355 combat veterans. We show that those who experienced heavy trauma (e.g., heavy combat) exhibited similar disconnection from brands as others have experienced in social relationships. They became more transactional in that they were more open to switching brands, to trying new products, and buying the least expensive alternative (p < 0.01). In contrast, those who had experienced a light trauma were more influenced by ads and more open to buying brands even when they cost more (p < 0.00). Trauma, such as combat, may change one’s decision horizon. Functionality and price become more important, which is consistent with the idea that they are more focused on the present moment than on building on the past or saving for the future.
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Adaptation and Fallibility in Experts’ Judgments of Novice Performers
Jeffrey Larson & Darron Billeter
Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, forthcoming
Abstract:
Competition judges are often selected for their expertise, under the belief that a high level of performance expertise should enable accurate judgments of the competitors. Contrary to this assumption, we find evidence that expertise can reduce judgment accuracy. Adaptation level theory proposes that discriminatory capacity decreases with greater distance from one’s adaptation level. Because experts’ learning has produced an adaptation level close to ideal performance standards, they may be less able to discriminate among lower-level competitors. As a result, expertise increases judgment accuracy of high-level competitions but decreases judgment accuracy of low-level competitions. Additionally, we demonstrate that, consistent with an adaptation level theory account of expert judgment, experts systematically give more critical ratings than intermediates or novices. In summary, this work demonstrates a systematic change in human perception that occurs as task learning increases.
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Remember Hard But Think Softly: Metaphorical Effects of Hardness/Softness on Cognitive Functions
Jiushu Xie et al.
Frontiers in Psychology, September 2016
Abstract:
Previous studies have found that bodily stimulation, such as hardness biases social judgment and evaluation via metaphorical association; however, it remains unclear whether bodily stimulation also affects cognitive functions, such as memory and creativity. The current study used metaphorical associations between “hard” and “rigid” and between “soft” and “flexible” in Chinese, to investigate whether the experience of hardness affects cognitive functions whose performance depends prospectively on rigidity (memory) and flexibility (creativity). In Experiment 1, we found that Chinese-speaking participants performed better at recalling previously memorized words while sitting on a hard-surface stool (the hard condition) than a cushioned one (the soft condition). In Experiment 2, participants sitting on a cushioned stool outperformed those sitting on a hard-surface stool on a Chinese riddle task, which required creative/flexible thinking, but not on an analogical reasoning task, which required both rigid and flexible thinking. The results suggest the hardness experience affects cognitive functions that are metaphorically associated with rigidity or flexibility. They support the embodiment proposition that cognitive functions and representations can be grounded in bodily states via metaphorical associations.
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Frédéric Vallée-Tourangeau et al.
Acta Psychologica, October 2016, Pages 195–205
Abstract:
Two experiments examined whether different task ecologies influenced insight problem solving. The 17 animals problem was employed, a pure insight problem. Its initial formulation encourages the application of a direct arithmetic solution, but its solution requires the spatial arrangement of sets involving some degree of overlap. Participants were randomly allocated to either a tablet condition where they could use a stylus and an electronic tablet to sketch a solution or a model building condition where participants were given material with which to build enclosures and figurines. In both experiments, participants were much more likely to develop a working solution in the model building condition. The difference in performance elicited by different task ecologies was unrelated to individual differences in working memory, actively open-minded thinking, or need for cognition (Experiment 1), although individual differences in creativity were correlated with problem solving success in Experiment 2. The discussion focuses on the implications of these findings for the prevailing metatheoretical commitment to methodological individualism that places the individual as the ontological locus of cognition.
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Wild and free: Unpredictability and spaciousness as predictors of creative performance
Thomas van Rompay & Tineke Jol
Journal of Environmental Psychology, December 2016, Pages 140–148
Abstract:
Inspired by research that demonstrates the positive effects of nature-based imagery on wellbeing and cognitive performance, the current research aims to study to what extent nature imagery can also enhance creative performance. To this end, imagery presenting green settings varying in unpredictability and spaciousness was displayed before and during a creative drawing task in a high school classroom. After completion participants additionally filled out a questionnaire comprising self-report measures for perceived creativity and positive affect. Both unpredictability and spaciousness enhanced creative performance, with images combining these two factors being particularly inspiring. Furthermore, spaciousness resulted in higher self-reported creativity. The effects of unpredictability and spaciousness on positive affect were not significant. These findings demonstrate that nature imagery has the potential to increase creativity in individuals and warrant follow-up studies that may further clarify the role of spaciousness, unpredictability, and potentially other creativity-enhancing features of nature imagery.
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Direct Speaker Gaze Promotes Trust in Truth-Ambiguous Statements
Helene Kreysa, Luise Kessler & Stefan Schweinberger
PLoS ONE, September 2016
Abstract:
A speaker’s gaze behaviour can provide perceivers with a multitude of cues which are relevant for communication, thus constituting an important non-verbal interaction channel. The present study investigated whether direct eye gaze of a speaker affects the likelihood of listeners believing truth-ambiguous statements. Participants were presented with videos in which a speaker produced such statements with either direct or averted gaze. The statements were selected through a rating study to ensure that participants were unlikely to know a-priori whether they were true or not (e.g., “sniffer dogs cannot smell the difference between identical twins”). Participants indicated in a forced-choice task whether or not they believed each statement. We found that participants were more likely to believe statements by a speaker looking at them directly, compared to a speaker with averted gaze. Moreover, when participants disagreed with a statement, they were slower to do so when the statement was uttered with direct (compared to averted) gaze, suggesting that the process of rejecting a statement as untrue may be inhibited when that statement is accompanied by direct gaze.
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Verbal Ability, Argument Order, and Attitude Formation
Mindaugas Mozuraitis, Craig Chambers & Meredyth Daneman
Frontiers in Psychology, September 2016
Abstract:
The current study explored the interaction of verbal ability and presentation order on readers’ attitude formation when presented with two-sided arguments. Participants read arguments for and against compulsory voting and genetic engineering, and attitudes were assessed before and after reading the passages. Participants’ verbal ability was measured, combining vocabulary knowledge and reading comprehension skill. Results suggested that low verbal-ability participants were more persuaded by the most recent set of arguments whereas high verbal-ability participants formed attitudes independent of presentation order. Contrary to previous literature, individual differences in the personality trait need for cognition did not interact with presentation order. The results suggest that verbal ability is an important moderator of the effect of presentation order when formulating opinions from complex prose.
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Elizabeth Goldfarb et al.
Journal of Cognitive Neuroscience, forthcoming
Abstract:
Acute stress has frequently been shown to impair cognitive flexibility. Most studies have examined the effect of stress on cognitive flexibility by measuring how stress changes performance in paradigms that require participants to switch between different task demands. These processes typically implicate pFC function, a region known to be impaired by stress. However, cognitive flexibility is a multifaceted construct. Another dimension of flexibility, updating to incorporate relevant information, involves the dorsal striatum. Function in this region has been shown to be enhanced by stress. Using a within-subject design, we tested whether updating flexibility in a DMS task would be enhanced by an acute stress manipulation (cold pressor task). Participants' cortisol response to stress positively correlated with a relative increase in accuracy on updating flexibility (compared with trials with no working memory interference). In contrast, in line with earlier studies, cortisol responses correlated with worse performance when switching between trials with different task demands. These results demonstrate that stress-related increases in cortisol are associated with both increases and decreases in cognitive flexibility, depending on task demands.
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Maria Hellenthal, Mark Howe & Lauren Knott
Applied Cognitive Psychology, forthcoming
Abstract:
We examined whether memories for personally chosen brands could be altered by retroactive exposure to less-liked competitor brands embedded in manipulated photographs. In addition, we investigated whether memory errors would lead to preference change for falsely remembered brands. Fifty participants were asked to compile their personal ‘brand lifestyle basket’, which was then captured in a photo showing the basket and participant. After 1 week, participants were exposed to the photograph in which some of the originally chosen brands were replaced by different brands of the same category. Results of a memory test revealed a robust misinformation effect. The analysis of premanipulation and postmanipulation preference ratings indicated a positive shift in attitude and behaviour towards falsely accepted misinformation brands. Our findings contribute to what we know about the behavioural consequences of false memories and extend the generalizability of false memory effects to what might be considered a futuristic advertising measure.
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Kao Si, Robert Wyer & Xianchi Dai
Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, forthcoming
Abstract:
Past events are perceived to be temporally more distant when they are unlikely rather than likely to reoccur in the future. This can be because (a) future events that are unlikely to occur are perceived to be temporally remote and (b) these feelings of remoteness can generalize and influence subjective distance judgments of the events’ occurrences in the past. Six studies confirmed this effect and provided insights into the processes that underlie it. Alternative interpretations and implications of the current findings are discussed.
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Seeing What You Want to See: How Imprecise Uncertainty Ranges Enhance Motivated Reasoning
Nathan Dieckmann et al.
Risk Analysis, forthcoming
Abstract:
In this article, we consider a novel criterion for evaluating representations of uncertainty ranges, namely, the extent to which a representation enhances motivated reasoning. In two studies, we show that perceptions of the distribution underlying ambiguous numerical ranges are affected by the motivations and worldviews of end users. This motivated reasoning effect remained after controlling for objective numeracy and fluid intelligence but was attenuated when the correct interpretation was made clear. We suggest that analysts and communicators explicitly consider the potential for motivated evaluation when evaluating uncertainty displays.