Clean break
Toxic Emissions and Executive Migration
Ross Levine, Chen Lin & Zigan Wang
NBER Working Paper, March 2018
Abstract:
We study the impact of toxic emissions on the migration of corporate executives. We link data on the opening of industrial plants emitting toxic air pollutants with information on the career paths of executives at all S&P 1500 firms over the 1996-2014 period. We find that (1) the opening of toxic emitting plants increases the rate at which executives leave geographically close firms and move to firms in less polluted areas, (2) stock returns fall when these “treated” executives announce their departures, and (3) the replacement executives have less experience than the departing executives.
The Broad Impact of a Narrow Conflict: How Natural Resource Windfalls Shape Policy and Politics
Jasper Cooper, Sung Eun Kim & Johannes Urpelainen
Journal of Politics, forthcoming
Abstract:
Access to natural resources creates a political conflict between the expected economic winners and their environmental opponents, but the effects of such conflict on policy and politics remain unclear. To examine the scope of such effects, we exploit the rapid and unanticipated technological breakthroughs in the “fracking” of shale gas. During the past decade, shale gas production around the Marcellus Shale formation in the Northeastern United States expanded rapidly. Using a quasi-experimental design, we examine how access to shale gas in electoral districts changed the voting record of House Representatives on environmental policy relative to neighboring districts without access. Votes become 15–20 percentage points less likely to be in favor of the environment. The best explanation for this effect is the strong electoral performance of (anti-environmental) Republicans in shale-affected districts. The narrow conflict has a broad impact: access to natural resources puts downward pressure on environmental policy across the board.
Consumption of Fish and Shrimp from Southeast Louisiana Poses No Unacceptable Lifetime Cancer Risks Attributable to High‐Priority Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons
Jeffrey Wickliffe et al.
Risk Analysis, forthcoming
Abstract:
Following oil spills such as the Deepwater Horizon accident (DWH), contamination of seafood resources and possible increased health risks attributable to consumption of seafood in spill areas are major concerns. In this study, locally harvested finfish and shrimp were collected from research participants in southeast Louisiana and analyzed for polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs). PAHs are some of the most important chemicals of concern regarding oil‐spill‐contaminated seafood resources during and following oil spills. Some PAHs are considered carcinogens for risk assessment purposes, and currently, seven of these can be combined in lifetime cancer risk assessments using EPA approaches. Most PAHs were not detected in these samples (minimum detection limits ranged from 1.2 to 2.1 PPB) and of those that were detected, they were generally below 10 PPB. The pattern of detected PAHs suggested that the source of these chemicals in these seafood samples was not a result of direct contact with crude oil. Lifetime cancer risks were assessed using conservative assumptions and models in a probabilistic framework for the seven carcinogenic PAHs. Lifetime health risks modeled using this framework did not exceed a 1/10,000 cancer risk threshold. Conservative, health‐protective deterministic estimates of the levels of concern for PAH chemical concentration and seafood intake rates were above the concentrations and intake rates modeled under this probabilistic framework. Taken together, consumption of finfish and shrimp harvested from southeast Louisiana following the DWH does not pose unacceptable lifetime cancer risks from these seven carcinogenic PAHs even for the heaviest possible consumers.
The health implications of unconventional natural gas development in Pennsylvania
Lizhong Peng, Chad Meyerhoefer & Shin-Yi Chou
Health Economics, forthcoming
Abstract:
We investigate the health impacts of unconventional natural gas development of Marcellus shale in Pennsylvania between 2001 and 2013 by merging well permit data from the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection with a database of all inpatient hospital admissions. After comparing changes in hospitalization rates over time for air pollution-sensitive diseases in counties with unconventional gas wells to changes in hospitalization rates in nonwell counties, we find a significant association between shale gas development and hospitalizations for pneumonia among the elderly, which is consistent with higher levels of air pollution resulting from unconventional natural gas development. We note that the lack of any detectable impact of shale gas development on younger populations may be due to unobserved factors contemporaneous with drilling, such as migration.
Induced earthquakes and housing markets: Evidence from Oklahoma
Ron Cheung, Daniel Wetherell & Stephan Whitaker
Regional Science and Urban Economics, March 2018, Pages 153-166
Abstract:
This paper examines the impact of earthquakes on residential property values using sales data from Oklahoma from 2006 to 2014. Before 2010, Oklahoma had only a couple of earthquakes per year that were strong enough to be felt by residents. Since 2010, seismic activity has increased, bringing potentially damaging quakes several times each year and perceptible quakes every few days. Using repeat-sales and difference-in-differences models, we estimate that prices decline by 3–4 percent after a home has experienced a moderate earthquake measuring 4 or 5 on the Modified Mercalli Intensity Scale. Prices can decline 9 percent or more after a potentially damaging earthquake with intensity above 6. We also find significant increases in the time-on-market after earthquake exposures. Our findings are consistent with the experience of an earthquake revealing a new disamenity and risk that is then capitalized into house values.
The effects of public transit supply on the demand for automobile travel
Justin Beaudoin & Cynthia Lin Lawell
Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, March 2018, Pages 447-467
Abstract:
Public transit is often advocated as a means to address traffic congestion within urban transportation networks. We estimate the effect of past public transit investment on the demand for automobile transportation by applying an instrumental variable approach that accounts for the potential endogeneity of public transit investment, and that distinguishes between the substitution effect and the equilibrium effect, to a panel dataset of 96 urban areas across the U.S. over the years 1991–2011. The results show that, owing to the countervailing effects of substitution and induced demand, the effects of increases in public transit supply on auto travel depend on the time horizon. In the short run, when accounting for the substitution effect only, we find that on average a 10% increase in transit capacity leads to a 0.7% reduction in auto travel. However, transit has no effect on auto travel in the medium run, as latent and induced demand offset the substitution effect. In the long run, when accounting for both substitution and induced demand, we find that on average a 10% increase in transit capacity is associated with a 0.4% increase in auto travel. We also find that public transit supply does not have a significant effect on auto travel when traffic congestion is below a threshold level. Additionally, we find that there is substantial heterogeneity across urban areas, with public transit having significantly different effects on auto travel demand in smaller, less densely populated regions with less-developed public transit networks than in larger, more densely populated regions with more extensive public transit networks.
Congestion Pricing, Air Pollution and Children's Health
Emilia Simeonova et al.
NBER Working Paper, March 2018
Abstract:
This study examines the effects of implementing a congestion tax in central Stockholm on both ambient air pollution and the population health of local children. We demonstrate that the tax reduced ambient air pollution by 5 to 15 percent, and that this reduction in air pollution was associated with a significant decrease in the rate of acute asthma attacks among young children. The change in health was more gradual than the change in pollution suggesting that it may take time for the full health effects of changes in pollution to be felt. Given the sluggish adjustment of health to pollution changes, short-run estimates of the pollution reduction programs may understate the long-run health benefits.
Low-level lead exposure and mortality in US adults: A population-based cohort study
Bruce Lanphear et al.
Lancet Public Health, forthcoming
Methods: Our study population comprised a nationally representative sample of adults aged 20 years or older who were enrolled in the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES-III) between 1988 and 1994 and followed up to Dec 31, 2011. Participants had completed a medical examination and home interview and had results for concentrations of lead in blood, cadmium in urine, and other relevant covariates. Individuals were linked with the National Death Index. This study presents extended follow-up of an earlier analysis.
Findings: We included 14 289 adults in our study. The geometric mean concentration of lead in blood was 2•71 μg/dL (geometric SE 1•31). 3632 (20%) participants had a concentration of lead in blood of at least 5 μg/dL (≥0•24 μmol/L). During median follow-up of 19•3 years (IQR 17•6–21•0), 4422 people died, 1801 (38%) from cardiovascular disease and 988 (22%) from ischaemic heart disease. An increase in the concentration of lead in blood from 1•0 μg/dL to 6•7 μg/dL (0•048 μmol/L to 0•324 μmol/L), which represents the tenth to 90th percentiles, was associated with all-cause mortality (hazard ratio 1•37, 95% CI 1•17–1•60), cardiovascular disease mortality (1•70, 1•30–2•22), and ischaemic heart disease mortality (2•08, 1•52–2•85). The population attributable fraction of the concentration of lead in blood for all-cause mortality was 18•0% (95% CI 10•9–26•1), which is equivalent to 412 000 deaths annually. Respective fractions were 28•7% (15•5–39•5) for cardiovascular disease mortality and 37•4% (23•4–48•6) for ischaemic heart disease mortality, which correspond to 256 000 deaths a year from cardiovascular disease and 185 000 deaths a year from ischaemic heart disease.
Air pollution exposure during fetal life, brain morphology, and cognitive function in school-age children
Mònica Guxens et al.
Biological Psychiatry, forthcoming
Method: We used data from a population-based birth cohort set up in Rotterdam, The Netherlands (2002-2006). Residential levels of air pollution during the entire fetal period were calculated using land-use regression models. Structural neuroimaging and cognitive function were performed at age 6-10 years (n=783). Models were adjusted for several socioeconomic and life-style characteristics.
Results: Mean fine particle levels were 20.2μg/m3 (range 16.8-28.1). Children exposed to higher particulate matter levels during fetal life had thinner cortex in several brain regions of both hemispheres (e.g. cerebral cortex of the precuneus region in the right hemisphere was 0.045mm thinner (95% Confidence Interval 0.028-0.062) for each 5μg/m3 increase in fine particles). The reduced cerebral cortex in precuneus and rostral middle frontal regions partially mediated the association between exposure to fine particles and impaired inhibitory control. Air pollution exposure was not associated with global brain volumes.
Volatile chemical products emerging as largest petrochemical source of urban organic emissions
Brian McDonald et al.
Science, 16 February 2018, Pages 760-764
Abstract:
A gap in emission inventories of urban volatile organic compound (VOC) sources, which contribute to regional ozone and aerosol burdens, has increased as transportation emissions in the United States and Europe have declined rapidly. A detailed mass balance demonstrates that the use of volatile chemical products (VCPs) — including pesticides, coatings, printing inks, adhesives, cleaning agents, and personal care products — now constitutes half of fossil fuel VOC emissions in industrialized cities. The high fraction of VCP emissions is consistent with observed urban outdoor and indoor air measurements. We show that human exposure to carbonaceous aerosols of fossil origin is transitioning away from transportation-related sources and toward VCPs. Existing U.S. regulations on VCPs emphasize mitigating ozone and air toxics, but they currently exempt many chemicals that lead to secondary organic aerosols.
An Empirical Study of US Environmental Federalism: RCRA Enforcement From 1998 to 2011
Eric Sjöberg & Jing Xu
Ecological Economics, May 2018, Pages 253–263
Abstract:
State enforcement of federal environmental legislation has long been associated with the fear of environmental freeriding and states being too lenient, potentially leading to a race-to-the bottom in enforcement. This paper analyzes the effect of enforcement decentralization from 1998 to 2011 on a range of enforcement outcomes across US states as they have been authorized to implement their own programs aligning with the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA). In this study, we look at the association between enforcement decentralization and corresponding outcomes, namely the number of evaluations, number of detected violations, and the amount of monetary penalties. Results showed that enforcement behaviors have not changed significantly as states have assumed more enforcement responsibilities; hence, we found no evidence of a race-to-the-bottom scenario associated with RCRA decentralization.
The Light and the Heat: Productivity Co-benefits of Energy-saving Technology
Achyuta Adhvaryu, Namrata Kala & Anant Nyshadham
NBER Working Paper, February 2018
Abstract:
Measurement of the full costs and benefits of energy-saving technologies is often difficult, confounding adoption decisions. We study consequences of the adoption of energy-efficient LED lighting in garment factories around Bangalore, India. We combine daily production line-level data with weather data and estimate a negative, nonlinear productivity-temperature gradient. We find that LED lighting, which emits less heat than conventional bulbs, decreases the temperature on factory floors, and thus raises productivity, particularly on hot days. Using the firm’s costing data, we estimate the pay-back period for LED adoption is nearly one-sixth the length after accounting for productivity co-benefits.
Talking in the Present, Caring for the Future: Language and Environment
Astghik Mavisakalyan, Yashar Tarverdi & Clas Weber
Journal of Comparative Economics, forthcoming
Abstract:
This paper identifies a new source that explains environmental behaviour: the presence of future tense marking in language. We predict that languages that grammatically mark the future affect speakers’ intertemporal preferences and thereby reduce their willingness to address environmental problems. We first show that speakers of languages with future tense marking are less likely to adopt environmentally responsible behaviours and to support policies to prevent environmental damage. We then document that this effect holds across countries: future tense marking is an important determinant of climate change policies and global environmental cooperation. The results suggest that there may be deep and surprising obstacles for attempts to address climate change.
Poisoned Development: Assessing Childhood Lead Exposure as a Cause of Crime in a Birth Cohort Followed through Adolescence
Robert Sampson & Alix Winter
Criminology, forthcoming
Abstract:
The consequences of lead exposure for later crime are theoretically compelling, but direct evidence from representative, longitudinal samples is sparse. By capitalizing on an original follow-up of more than 200 infants from the birth cohort of the Project on Human Development in Chicago Neighborhoods matched to their blood lead levels from around age 3 years, we provide several tests. Through the use of four waves of longitudinal data that include measures of individual development, family background, and structural inequalities in how lead becomes embodied, we assess the hypothesized link between early childhood lead poisoning and both parent-reported delinquent behavior and official arrest in late adolescence. We also test for mediating developmental processes of impulsivity and anxiety or depression. The results from multiple analytic strategies that make different assumptions reveal a plausibly causal effect of childhood lead exposure on adolescent delinquent behavior but no direct link to arrests. The results underscore lead exposure as a trigger for poisoned development in the early life course and call for greater integration of the environment into theories of individual differences in criminal behavior.
Analyzing the Risk of Transporting Crude Oil by Rail
Charles Mason
NBER Working Paper, February 2018
Abstract:
In this paper, I combine data on incidents associated with rail transportation of crude oil and detailed data on rail shipments to appraise the relation between increased use of rail to transport crude oil and the risk of safety incidents associated with those shipments. I find a positive link between the accumulation of minor incidents and the frequency of serious incidents, and a positive relation between increased rail shipments of crude oil and the occurrence of minor incidents. I also find that increased shipments are associated with a rightward shift in the distribution of economic damages associated with these shipments; the implied marginal impact of an additional 1,000 rail cars carrying oil between two states in a given month is $1,836. In addition, I find larger average effects associated with states that represent the greatest source of tight oil production.
The heterogeneous impacts of low natural gas prices on consumers and the environment
Joshua Linn & Lucija Muehlenbachs
Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, May 2018, Pages 1-28
Abstract:
We show that low natural gas prices increase gas-fired electricity generation, reduce coal-fired electricity generation, and reduce wholesale electricity prices. However, not all regions experience the same degree of coal-to-gas generation switching or electricity price declines. Specifically, regions experiencing more coal-to-gas switching experience smaller electricity price drops. We provide intuition that may explain this pattern. This finding also has environmental and welfare consequences: coal-fired plants emit more pollutants, and therefore regions that benefit more from greater emissions reductions experience lower benefits from declining electricity prices. The finding highlights a mechanism through which a carbon price would have heterogeneous impacts across regions.
The changing value of the ‘green’ label on the US municipal bond market
Andreas Karpf & Antoine Mandel
Nature Climate Change, February 2018, Pages 161–165
Abstract:
Green bonds are seen as a key instrument to unlock climate finance. While their volume has grown steadily in recent years, the impact of the ‘green’ label on the bond market is poorly understood. Here, we investigate the differences between the yield term structures of green and conventional bonds in the US municipal bond market. We show that, although returns on conventional bonds are on average higher than for green bonds, the differences can largely be explained by the fundamental properties of the bonds. Historically, green bonds have been penalized on the municipal market, being traded at lower prices and higher yields than expected by their credit profiles. In recent years, however, the credit quality of municipal green bonds has increased and the premium turned positive. Green bonds are thus becoming an increasingly attractive investment, with scope to bridge the climate finance gap for mitigation and adaptation.