Chill
Entangled histories: Climate science and nuclear weapons research
Paul Edwards
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, July/August 2012, Pages 28-40
Abstract:
Climate science and nuclear weapons testing have a long and surprisingly intimate relationship. The global networks that monitored the Fukushima radiation plume and forecasted its movement are the direct descendants of systems and computer models developed to trace fallout from weapons tests. Tracing radioactive carbon as it cycles through the atmosphere, the oceans, and the biosphere has been crucial to understanding anthropogenic climate change. The earliest global climate models relied on numerical methods very similar to those developed by nuclear weapons designers for solving the fluid dynamics equations needed to analyze shock waves produced in nuclear explosions. The climatic consequences of nuclear war also represent a major historical intersection between climate science and nuclear affairs. Without the work done by nuclear weapons designers and testers, scientists would know much less than they now do about the atmosphere. In particular, this research has contributed enormously to knowledge about both carbon dioxide, which raises Earth's temperature, and aerosols, which lower it. Without climate models, scientists and political leaders would not have understood the full extent of nuclear weapons' power to annihilate not only human beings, but other species as well. In the post-Cold War era, US national laboratories built to create the most fearsome arsenal in history are now using their powerful supercomputers, their expertise in modeling, and their skills in managing very large data sets to address the threat of catastrophic climate change.
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Robert Ames et al.
Yale Working Paper, June 2012
Abstract:
Academic and professional assessments of shale gas (also known as frac gas) from vast shale formations in the US have focused on the social costs of shale gas development. Using the economic tools of traditional cost benefit analysis, we demonstrate that for one given year, 2010, the consumer surplus from shale gas is in excess of $100 billion to the US economy. The benefit to the US economy of replacing 1.0 million bbls per day of oil consumption with the BTU equivalent of natural gas is in excess of $25 billion.
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The moral circle as a common motivational cause of cross-situational pro-environmentalism
Boyka Bratanova, Steve Loughnan & Birgitta Gatersleben
European Journal of Social Psychology, August 2012, Pages 539-545
Abstract:
Public engagement in pro-environmental behavior and support for pro-environmental policy are essential for achieving sustainable living. We propose that the "moral circle" is a common motivational source for engagement in environmentally beneficial activities across situations and may be thus drawn upon to efficiently promote these activities. Study 1 established an association between chronic moral circle size and nine pro-environmental activities from different domains. Via experimental manipulation of the moral circle size, Studies 2a-d demonstrated its causal effect on intentions to engage in pro-environmental activities. Together, these studies offer an important initial demonstration of the beneficial consequences of more expansive moral circle in the domain of pro-environmentalism. Routes for expanding the moral circle and thus promoting pro-environmental activities are discussed.
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Earthquake triggering and large-scale geologic storage of carbon dioxide
Mark Zoback & Steven Gorelick
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 26 June 2012, Pages 10164-10168
Abstract:
Despite its enormous cost, large-scale carbon capture and storage (CCS) is considered a viable strategy for significantly reducing CO2 emissions associated with coal-based electrical power generation and other industrial sources of CO2 [Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2005) IPCC Special Report on Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage. Prepared by Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, eds Metz B, et al. (Cambridge Univ Press, Cambridge, UK); Szulczewski ML, et al. (2012) Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 109:5185-5189]. We argue here that there is a high probability that earthquakes will be triggered by injection of large volumes of CO2 into the brittle rocks commonly found in continental interiors. Because even small- to moderate-sized earthquakes threaten the seal integrity of CO2 repositories, in this context, large-scale CCS is a risky, and likely unsuccessful, strategy for significantly reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
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Hotspot of accelerated sea-level rise on the Atlantic coast of North America
Asbury Sallenger, Kara Doran & Peter Howd
Nature Climate Change, forthcoming
Abstract:
Climate warming does not force sea-level rise (SLR) at the same rate everywhere. Rather, there are spatial variations of SLR superimposed on a global average rise. These variations are forced by dynamic processes, arising from circulation and variations in temperature and/or salinity, and by static equilibrium processes, arising from mass redistributions changing gravity and the Earth's rotation and shape. These sea-level variations form unique spatial patterns, yet there are very few observations verifying predicted patterns or fingerprints. Here, we present evidence of recently accelerated SLR in a unique 1,000-km-long hotspot on the highly populated North American Atlantic coast north of Cape Hatteras and show that it is consistent with a modelled fingerprint of dynamic SLR. Between 1950-1979 and 1980-2009, SLR rate increases in this northeast hotspot were ~ 3-4 times higher than the global average. Modelled dynamic plus steric SLR by 2100 at New York City ranges with Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change scenario from 36 to 51 cm; lower emission scenarios project 24-36 cm. Extrapolations from data herein range from 20 to 29 cm. SLR superimposed on storm surge, wave run-up and set-up will increase the vulnerability of coastal cities to flooding, and beaches and wetlands to deterioration.
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Public Perceptions of Hurricane Modification
Kelly Klima et al.
Risk Analysis, July 2012, Pages 1194-1206
Abstract:
If hurricane modification were to become a feasible strategy for potentially reducing hurricane damages, it would likely generate public discourse about whether to support its implementation. To facilitate an informed and constructive discourse, policymakers need to understand how people perceive hurricane modification. Here, we examine Florida residents' perceptions of hurricane modification techniques that aim to alter path and wind speed. Following the mental models approach, we conducted a survey study about public perceptions of hurricane modification that was guided by formative interviews on the topic. We report a set of four primary findings. First, hurricane modification was perceived as a relatively ineffective strategy for damage reduction, compared to other strategies for damage reduction. Second, hurricane modification was expected to lead to changes in projected hurricane path, but not necessarily to the successful reduction of projected hurricane strength. Third, more anger was evoked when a hurricane was described as having changed from the initially forecasted path or strength after an attempted modification. Fourth, unlike what we expected, participants who more strongly agreed with statements that recognized the uncertainty inherent in forecasts reported more rather than less anger at scientists across hurricane modification scenarios. If the efficacy of intensity-reduction techniques can be increased, people may be willing to support hurricane modification. However, such an effort would need to be combined with open and honest communications to members of the general public.
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Can cities become self-reliant in energy? A technological scenario analysis for Cleveland, Ohio
Parbir Grewal & Parwinder Grewal
Cities, forthcoming
Abstract:
This study applied the concept of local self-reliance in energy for a North American city, Cleveland, Ohio. Results revealed that while nearly all of Cleveland's energy is imported, there is potential to meet the demand entirely using local, renewable sources of energy. Four scenarios were constructed. The first scenario included planned renewable energy developments: the 20 MW Municipal Solid Waste to Energy (MSWE) facility by Cleveland Public Power and a 20 MW offshore wind project by the Lake Erie Energy Development Corporation (LEEDCo). These resulted in 1% energy self-reliance for the city. The second scenario, in which the contribution of offshore wind power was increased to 1000 MW (LEEDCo's target for 2020), solar power was provided using 10% efficient solar panels on one-quarter of all rooftop area and biodiesel was produced on one-half of the city's vacant land using algae of moderate productivity, produced 17.6% self-reliance. In Scenario 3, the level of energy self-reliance jumped to 70% when LEEDCo's 2030 target of 5000 MW was considered together with solar panels of 20% efficiency and high-productivity algae. In Scenario 4, 100% self-reliance was attained by further increasing offshore wind power. The analysis also revealed that enhanced energy self-reliance could result in $28.7 M to $1.76 bn being retained in Cleveland annually. Although consumer behavior, market forces, and political dynamics can shape the production and use of energy, it is concluded that cities have the potential to substantially increase their energy self-reliance, which may bolster their economic resilience and reduce their ecological footprint.
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Howard Kunreuther & Geoffrey Heal
NBER Working Paper, June 2012
Abstract:
A principal reason that losses from catastrophic risks have been increasing over time is that more individuals and firms are locating in harm's way while not taking appropriate protective measures. Several behavioural biases lead decision-makers not to invest in adaptation measures until after it is too late. In an interdependent world with no intervention by the public sector, it may be economically rational for those at risk not to invest in protective measures. Risk management strategies that involve private-public partnerships that address these issues may help in reducing future catastrophic losses. These may include multi-year insurance contracts, well-enforced regulations, third-party inspections, and alternative risk transfer instruments such as catastrophe bonds.
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Assessing the greenhouse impact of natural gas
L.M. Cathles
Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems, June 2012
Abstract:
The global warming impact of substituting natural gas for coal and oil is currently in debate. We address this question here by comparing the reduction of greenhouse warming that would result from substituting gas for coal and some oil to the reduction which could be achieved by instead substituting zero carbon energy sources. We show that substitution of natural gas reduces global warming by 40% of that which could be attained by the substitution of zero carbon energy sources. At methane leakage rates that are ∼1% of production, which is similar to today's probable leakage rate of ∼1.5% of production, the 40% benefit is realized as gas substitution occurs. For short transitions the leakage rate must be more than 10 to 15% of production for gas substitution not to reduce warming, and for longer transitions the leakage must be much greater. But even if the leakage was so high that the substitution was not of immediate benefit, the 40%-of-zero-carbon benefit would be realized shortly after methane emissions ceased because methane is removed quickly from the atmosphere whereas CO2 is not. The benefits of substitution are unaffected by heat exchange to the ocean. CO2 emissions are the key to anthropogenic climate change, and substituting gas reduces them by 40% of that possible by conversion to zero carbon energy sources. Gas substitution also reduces the rate at which zero carbon energy sources must eventually be introduced.
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On a Fundamental Advantage of Permits Over Taxes for the Control of Pollution
Andrew Yates
Environmental and Resource Economics, April 2012, Pages 583-598
Abstract:
We extend the tax versus permits literature by considering permit supply functions and pollution tax functions that are generalizations of the usual constant permit supply and constant pollution tax rate. In our model, pollution is not uniformly mixed and the regulator is uncertain about the polluting firms' abatement costs. We determine the optimal permit supply functions and the optimal pollution tax functions. Using these functions, we show that permits lead unambiguously to lower total expected costs than taxes. We analyze the magnitude of this difference for a simple model of climate change. By relating the optimal permit supply functions to Weitzman (Am Econ Rev 68:683-691, 1978) we provide a new interpretation of his results.
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Robert Pindyck
NBER Working Paper, July 2012
Abstract:
Climate policy poses a dilemma for environmental economists. The economic argument for stringent GHG abatement is far from clear. There is disagreement among both climate scientists and economists over the likelihood of alternative climate outcomes, over the nature and extent of the uncertainty over those outcomes, and over the framework that should be used to evaluate potential benefits from GHG abatement, including key policy parameters. I argue that the case for stringent abatement cannot be based on the kinds of modeling exercises that have permeated the literature, but instead must be based on the possibility of a catastrophic outcome. I discuss how an analysis that incorporates such an outcome might be conducted.
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Response of corn markets to climate volatility under alternative energy futures
Noah Diffenbaugh et al.
Nature Climate Change, July 2012, Pages 514-518
Abstract:
Recent price spikes have raised concern that climate change could increase food insecurity by reducing grain yields in the coming decades. However, commodity price volatility is also influenced by other factors, which may either exacerbate or buffer the effects of climate change. Here we show that US corn price volatility exhibits higher sensitivity to near-term climate change than to energy policy influences or agriculture-energy market integration, and that the presence of a biofuels mandate enhances the sensitivity to climate change by more than 50%. The climate change impact is driven primarily by intensification of severe hot conditions in the primary corn-growing region of the United States, which causes US corn price volatility to increase sharply in response to global warming projected to occur over the next three decades. Closer integration of agriculture and energy markets moderates the effects of climate change, unless the biofuels mandate becomes binding, in which case corn price volatility is instead exacerbated. However, in spite of the substantial impact on US corn price volatility, we find relatively small impact on food prices. Our findings highlight the critical importance of interactions between energy policies, energy-agriculture linkages and climate change.
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ENSO Drove 2500-Year Collapse of Eastern Pacific Coral Reefs
Lauren Toth et al.
Science, 6 July 2012, Pages 81-84
Abstract:
Cores of coral reef frameworks along an upwelling gradient in Panamá show that reef ecosystems in the tropical eastern Pacific collapsed for 2500 years, representing as much as 40% of their history, beginning about 4000 years ago. The principal cause of this millennial-scale hiatus in reef growth was increased variability of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and its coupling with the Intertropical Convergence Zone. The hiatus was a Pacific-wide phenomenon with an underlying climatology similar to probable scenarios for the next century. Global climate change is probably driving eastern Pacific reefs toward another regional collapse.
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Michael Chenoweth & Dmitry Divine
Climatic Change, August 2012, Pages 583-598
Abstract:
The history of tropical cyclone activity in the Lesser Antilles since 1638 is described using a recently created data set first described in Chenoweth and Divine (Geochem Geophys Geosyst 9: Q08013, 2008). We examine through descriptive statistics the seasonality of tropical cyclones in the Lesser Antilles for tropical depressions, tropical storms and hurricanes since 1690 and for hurricanes only since 1638. In addition, the maximum estimated wind speed (expressed in knots) (Vmax2) for each tropical cyclone passing through 61.5°W is used to produce "Lesser Antilles accumulated Cyclone Energy" (LACE) for each year along the 61.5°W meridian. LACE is positively correlated with basin-wide Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) since 1899 with the highest correlations from 10 to 25°N. There is no evidence of long-term trend in LACE, which is in accord with previously-documented absence of long-term trends in the numbers of tropical cyclones passing through the Lesser Antilles. There is pronounced ~50-70 year variability in LACE from 18 to 25°N most likely associated with multi-decadal variations in the North Atlantic sea surface temperature. The LACE variations at the shorter time scales of ~3 to 8 years are coherent with correspondent fluctuations in ENSO with its effect more pronounced at lower latitudes.
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Orbital forcing of tree-ring data
Jan Esper et al.
Nature Climate Change, forthcoming
Abstract:
Solar insolation changes, resulting from long-term oscillations of orbital configurations, are an important driver of Holocene climate. The forcing is substantial over the past 2,000 years, up to four times as large as the 1.6 W m-2 net anthropogenic forcing since 1750, but the trend varies considerably over time, space and with season. Using numerous high-latitude proxy records, slow orbital changes have recently been shown to gradually force boreal summer temperature cooling over the common era. Here, we present new evidence based on maximum latewood density data from northern Scandinavia, indicating that this cooling trend was stronger (-0.31 °C per 1,000 years, ±0.03 °C) than previously reported, and demonstrate that this signature is missing in published tree-ring proxy records. The long-term trend now revealed in maximum latewood density data is in line with coupled general circulation models indicating albedo-driven feedback mechanisms and substantial summer cooling over the past two millennia in northern boreal and Arctic latitudes. These findings, together with the missing orbital signature in published dendrochronological records, suggest that large-scale near-surface air-temperature reconstructions relying on tree-ring data may underestimate pre-instrumental temperatures including warmth during Medieval and Roman times.
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Ice Volume and Sea Level During the Last Interglacial
A. Dutton & K. Lambeck
Science, 13 July 2012, Pages 216-219
Abstract:
During the last interglacial period, ~125,000 years ago, sea level was at least several meters higher than at present, with substantial variability observed for peak sea level at geographically diverse sites. Speculation that the West Antarctic ice sheet collapsed during the last interglacial period has drawn particular interest to understanding climate and ice-sheet dynamics during this time interval. We provide an internally consistent database of coral U-Th ages to assess last interglacial sea-level observations in the context of isostatic modeling and stratigraphic evidence. These data indicate that global (eustatic) sea level peaked 5.5 to 9 meters above present sea level, requiring smaller ice sheets in both Greenland and Antarctica relative to today and indicating strong sea-level sensitivity to small changes in radiative forcing.
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Economic costs of ocean acidification: A look into the impacts on global shellfish production
Daiju Narita, Katrin Rehdanz & Richard Tol
Climatic Change, August 2012, Pages 1049-1063
Abstract:
Ocean acidification is increasingly recognized as a major global problem. Yet economic assessments of its effects are currently almost absent. Unlike most other marine organisms, mollusks, which have significant commercial value worldwide, have relatively solid scientific evidence of biological impact of acidification and allow us to make such an economic evaluation. By performing a partial-equilibrium analysis, we estimate global and regional economic costs of production loss of mollusks due to ocean acidification. Our results show that the costs for the world as a whole could be over 100 billion USD with an assumption of increasing demand of mollusks with expected income growths combined with a business-as-usual emission trend towards the year 2100. The major determinants of cost levels are the impacts on the Chinese production, which is dominant in the world, and the expected demand increase of mollusks in today's developing countries, which include China, in accordance with their future income rise. Our results have direct implications for climate policy. Because the ocean acidifies faster than the atmosphere warms, the acidification effects on mollusks would raise the social cost of carbon more strongly than the estimated damage adds to the damage costs of climate change.
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The effect of the Kyoto Protocol on carbon dioxide emissions
Risa Kumazawa & Michael Callaghan
Journal of Economics and Finance, January 2012, Pages 201-210
Abstract:
In this paper, we investigate the impact of the Kyoto Protocol on world emissions of a greenhouse gas, carbon dioxide. We use a large unbalanced panel data consisting of 177 countries from 1980 to 2006. The key finding of this paper is that there are structural breaks in the data that demonstrate the effects of the international agreement. While carbon dioxide emissions declined for industrialized (Annex B) countries since the signing of the international agreement, the effect of income per capita is much larger during these years. However in the same period, the effect of industrial production has declined not just for industrialized countries but for developing countries as well. The results are robust to the exclusion of the US and Australia as Annex B countries since they had not ratified the protocol by 2006.
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Global Warming and Endogenous Technological Change: Revisiting the Green Paradox
Luca Spinesi
Environmental and Resource Economics, April 2012, Pages 545-559
Abstract:
One of the most pressing policy challenges facing the world today concerns how to mitigate global warming while improving people's well-being. The green paradox argues that increasing taxes on CO2 emissions exacerbates global warming in the present because firms have the incentive to bring forward the extraction and sale of fossil fuels. This paper shows that whenever technological progress allows the extraction costs of fossil fuels to be reduced over time and a positive R&D subsidy is paid, a growing tax on CO2 emissions reveals a welfare maximizing policy.
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Julia Pongratz & Ken Caldeira
Environmental Research Letters, July-September 2012
Abstract:
The historical contribution of each country to today's observed atmospheric CO2 excess and higher temperatures has become a basis for discussions around burden-sharing of greenhouse gas reduction commitments in political negotiations. However, the accounting methods have considered greenhouse gas emissions only during the industrial era, neglecting the fact that land use changes (LUC) have caused emissions long before the Industrial Revolution. Here, we hypothesize that considering preindustrial LUC affects the attribution because the geographic pattern of preindustrial LUC emissions differs significantly from that of industrial-era emissions and because preindustrial emissions have legacy effects on today's atmospheric CO2 concentrations and temperatures. We test this hypothesis by estimating CO2 and temperature increases based on carbon cycle simulations of the last millennium. We find that accounting for preindustrial LUC emissions results in a shift of attribution of global temperature increase from the industrialized countries to less industrialized countries, in particular South Asia and China, by up to 2-3%, a level that may be relevant for political discussions. While further studies are needed to span the range of plausible quantifications, our study demonstrates the importance of including preindustrial emissions for the most scientifically defensible attribution.
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Storm surge frequency reduction in Venice under climate change
Alberto Troccoli et al.
Climatic Change, August 2012, Pages 1065-1079
Abstract:
Increased tidal levels and storm surges related to climate change are projected to result in extremely adverse effects on coastal regions. Predictions of such extreme and small-scale events, however, are exceedingly challenging, even for relatively short time horizons. Here we use data from observations, ERA-40 re-analysis, climate scenario simulations, and a simple feature model to find that the frequency of extreme storm surge events affecting Venice is projected to decrease by about 30% by the end of the twenty-first century. In addition, through a trend assessment based on tidal observations we found a reduction in extreme tidal levels. Extrapolating the current +17 cm/century sea level trend, our results suggest that the frequency of extreme tides in Venice might largely remain unaltered under the projected twenty-first century climate simulations.