Findings

Causal Relationships

Kevin Lewis

May 26, 2024

The California Effect: The Challenges of Identifying the Impact of Social Policies during an Era of Social Change
Lauren Hoehn-Velasco et al.
Georgia State University Working Paper, April 2024

Abstract:
This paper reexamines the role of social policy in the doubling of divorce rates. We demonstrate that the short-run rise in divorce rates formerly attributed to unilateral divorce solely depends on the state of California. California receives considerable weight in national analyses and adopted several policies simultaneously. When we examine the independent effects of these social policies, we find that legal abortion leads to a clear and immediate rise in divorce rates. However, legal abortion's impact also hinges on California and may be contaminated by concurrently adopted policies. We then demonstrate that California's influence extends to the broader unilateral divorce literature. We conclude by describing best practices to confront the challenges of simultaneous policy adoption.


Coming out in America: Thirty years of cultural change
Raquel Fernández, Sahar Parsa & Martina Viarengo
Journal of Law, Economics, and Organization, forthcoming

Abstract:
The last few decades witnessed a dramatic change in public opinion toward gay people. We show that this process was initiated by a sharp increase in the approval of same-sex relationships in 1992–93, following the debate on whether gay people could serve openly in the military. We study the hypothesis that the greater salience of gay-related issues during this period initiated a process of cultural change. Using a difference-in-difference empirical strategy, we show that greater exposure to the gay population, measured in a variety of ways, led to a greater increase in approval. Furthermore, media attention and campaign contributions increased by more in high exposure locations. Our results, we show, cannot be explained simply by a process of expanding liberal views of civil liberties.


A tale of two marital stressors: Comparing proinflammatory responses to partner distress and marital conflict
Stephanie Wilson et al.
Brain, Behavior, and Immunity, July 2024, Pages 898-907

Abstract:
Marital quality shares ties to inflammatory conditions like cardiovascular disease and diabetes. For decades, research has focused on marital conflict as a primary mechanism given its potential to trigger inflammatory responses. However, longitudinal evidence suggests that marital conflict declines over time, and little attention has been paid to the inflammatory aftermath of other types of marital exchanges. A spouse’s emotional distress is an important but overlooked marital context, as partners are exposed to each other’s upsetting emotions throughout adulthood. To directly compare reactivity in proinflammatory gene expression to these two marital stressors and to examine differences by age and marital satisfaction, 203 community adults ages 25–91 (N = 102 couples) provided blood samples and rated their negative mood before and after they 1) watched their partner relive an upsetting personal memory and, in a separate visit 1–2 weeks later, 2) discussed a conflictual topic in their relationship. Controlling for age, sex, race/ethnicity, BMI, alcohol use, smoking, and comorbidities, increases in proinflammatory gene expression were significantly larger after the partner’s upsetting disclosure than after marital conflict (B = 0.073, SE = 0.031, p = .018). This pattern paralleled emotional reactivity to the tasks, wherein negative mood rose more in response to the partner’s disclosure than to marital conflict (B = 4.305, SE = 1.468, p = .004). In sum, proinflammatory and mood reactivity to spousal distress exceeded reactivity to marital conflict, a well-established marital stressor. Findings reveal spousal distress as a novel mechanism that may link marriage to inflammation-related diseases, and even pose risks for both happy and unhappy couples across adulthood.


Thank You for Changing: Gratitude Promotes Autonomous Motivation and Successful Partner Regulation
Natalie Sisson et al.
Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, forthcoming

Abstract:
Romantic partners often attempt to improve their relationship by changing each other’s traits and behaviors, but such partner regulation is often unsuccessful. We examined whether gratitude expressed by agents (i.e., partners requesting change) facilitates greater regulation success from targets (i.e., partners making change) by encouraging targets’ autonomous motivation. Across studies, including observational (Study 1, N = 111 couples), preregistered longitudinal (Study 2, N = 150 couples), and experimental (Study 3a, N = 431; Study 3b, N = 725) designs, agents’ gratitude for targets’ efforts was linked to greater targets’ -- and less consistently agents’ -- reported regulation success. These effects were consistently mediated by greater target autonomous motivation, and generally persisted when accounting for how agents communicated their change request and other positive responses to targets’ efforts (e.g., positivity and support). Gratitude for targets’ efforts appears to be an important tool for promoting change success.


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