Carnage
Is the Number of Citizens Fatally Shot by Police Increasing in the Post-Ferguson Era?
Bradley Campbell, Justin Nix & Edward Maguire
Crime & Delinquency, forthcoming
Abstract:
This study examines whether the number of citizens fatally shot by police in the United States has changed significantly since the shooting of Michael Brown in Ferguson, Missouri. Using longitudinal data compiled by killedbypolice.net, we use an interrupted time-series design to test the effect of events in Ferguson on fatal shootings by police. Our analyses reveal that the number of citizens killed by police is temporally unstable, exhibiting random short-term fluctuations that are often misinterpreted as evidence of substantively meaningful trends. However, after testing a variety of model specifications, we find no evidence that the number of fatal police shootings either increased or decreased post-Ferguson. Claims to the contrary are based on weak analyses of short-term trends.
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Local Labor Markets and Criminal Recidivism
Crystal Yang
Journal of Public Economics, forthcoming
Abstract:
This paper estimates the impact of local labor market conditions on criminal recidivism using administrative prison records on four million offenders released from 43 states between 2000 and 2013. Exploiting the timing of each offender’s release from prison, I find that being released to a county with higher low-skilled wages significantly decreases the risk of recidivism. The impact of higher wages on recidivism is larger for both black offenders and first-time offenders, and in sectors that report being more willing to hire ex-offenders. These results are robust to individual- and county-level controls, such as policing and corrections activity, and do not appear to be driven by changes in the composition of released offenders during good or bad economic times.
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Paul Liu & Marco Fabbri
Google Working Paper, February 2016
Abstract:
This work studies the effect of unarmed private security patrols on crime. We make use of an initiative, triggered by an arguably exogenous event, consisting in hiring unarmed private security agents to patrol, observe and report to ordinary police criminal activities within a well-defined city area. Our identification strategy capitalizes on the fact that the portions of the city outside the arbitrarily defined intervention area remain unaffected by the patrolling activity. To estimate the effects of the security patrols, we use both a difference-in-difference approach and we additionally propose the first application in Law & Economics of a Bayesian structural time-series model (Brodersen et al., 2015). This model overcomes some limitations and provides a generalization to the time-series setting of the standard difference-in-difference approach. Results show that unarmed private security patrolling decreases crime in the treated area by 30-43%. Our results suggest that a large share of the police-crime elasticity estimated by prior work is due to perceptual deterrence.
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Missing person alerts: Does repeated exposure decrease their effectiveness?
James Michael Lampinen & Kara Moore
Journal of Experimental Criminology, December 2016, Pages 587–598
Methods: Some participants saw three different mock missing person videos, depicting three different target individuals, with one video being shown on each of 3 days (Monday, Wednesday, Friday). Other participants engaged in unrelated tasks on the first 2 days and saw a single mock missing person video on the third day. All participants were told that if they saw a person from a mock missing person video and contacted the experimenters they would win a cash prize. On the final day of the study, the target individual was located in the hallway a short distance from the experiment room in a location that participants had to pass on their way out of the building.
Results: Correct sightings of the target individual were significantly lower in the multiple video condition than in the single video condition.
Conclusions: The results suggest that overuse of missing person alert systems can decrease their effectiveness in a manner consistent with a “car alarm” effect.
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American Monsters: Tabloid Media and the Satanic Panic, 1970–2000
Sarah Hughes
Journal of American Studies, forthcoming
Abstract:
“American Monsters” analyzes the satanic panic, an episode of national hysteria that dominated the media throughout the 1980s. It involved hundreds of accusations that devil-worshipping pedophiles were operating America's white middle-class suburban daycare centers. Communities around the country became embroiled in trials against center owners, the most publicized of which was the McMartin Preschool trial in Manhattan Beach, California, still the longest and most expensive criminal trial in the nation's history. This article explores how the panic both reflected and shaped a cultural climate dominated by the overlapping worldviews of politically active conservatives. Their ideology was incorporated into the panic and reinforced through tabloid media. Infotainment expanded dramatically in the 1980s, selling conservative-defined threats as news. The panic unfolded mostly through infotainment, lending appeal to subgenres like talk shows. In the 1990s, judges overturned the life sentences of defendants in most major cases, and several prominent journalists and lawyers condemned the phenomenon as a witch hunt. They analyzed it as a powerful delusion, or what contemporary cultural theorist Jean Baudrillard termed a “hyperreality,” in which audiences confuse the media universe for real life. Integral to the development, influence, and success of tabloid television, the panic was a manifestation of the hyperreal.
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Michael Mueller-Smith & Kevin Schnepel
University of Michigan Working Paper, December 2016
Abstract:
This paper studies the causal impact of court deferrals, a legal strategy to help defendants avoid a felony conviction record, on the future criminal and labor market outcomes of first-time felony drug offenders. To accomplish this, we exploit two natural experiments in Harris County, Texas, in which defendants appearing in court one day versus the next experienced abruptly different likelihoods of deferral. In 1994 deferral rates dropped by 34 percentage points the day following the implementation of a penal code reform; in 2007 deferral rates increased by 22 percentage points the day after the unexpected failure of a ballot initiative to expand the county jail. Using administrative data and local polynomial regression discontinuity methods, we find robust evidence consistent across both experiments that regimes with expanded use of court deferrals generated substantially lower rates of reoffending and unemployment over a five-year follow-up period. Additional analysis delves further into the timing, nature and incidence of these impacts. Together our results suggest that increasing the use of deferral programs may be an attractive and feasible option for a jurisdiction seeking to reduce the fiscal cost and community impact of its criminal justice system.
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Race, Ethnicity, and Prison Disciplinary Misconduct
Heidi Bonner, Frank Rodriguez & Jon Sorensen
Journal of Ethnicity in Criminal Justice, Winter 2017, Pages 36-51
Abstract:
It is well known that racial and ethnic minorities (both male and female) have felt the effect of increased incarceration more than Whites, and a large amount of prior research has investigated the factors that influence higher levels of inmate misconduct, including the influence of race/ethnicity. This body of research has produced mixed results. Using recent data from one of the largest state prison systems, this study sought to determine the level of racial and ethnic disparity in the commission of inmate misconduct. Results indicate that Black inmates were significantly more likely than other inmates to commit general rule violations, serious rule violations, and assaultive rule violations. Correlates of inmate misconduct and policy implications stemming from the findings are discussed.
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Street Prostitution Zones and Crime
Paul Bisschop, Stephen Kastoryano & Bas van der Klaauw
American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, forthcoming
Abstract:
This paper studies the effects of legal street prostitution zones on registered and perceived crime. We exploit a unique setting in the Netherlands where these tippelzones were opened in nine cities under different regulation systems. Our difference-in-differences analysis of 25 Dutch cities between 1994-2011 shows that opening a tippelzone decreases registered sexual abuse and rape by about 30%−40% in the first two years. For cities which enforced licensing in tippelzones, we also find reductions in drug-related crime and long-term effects on sexual assaults. Effects on perceived drug nuisance depend on the regulation system and the proximity of respondents to the tippelzone.
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Chris Rissel et al.
Sexuality Research and Social Policy, March 2017, Pages 81–86
Abstract:
It has been claimed that the decriminalization of sex work may result in its proliferation, but there is no evidence to prove or disprove this claim. We investigated whether decriminalization was associated with the prevalence of paying for sex. A representative national sample of 8074 Australian men interviewed by telephone reported whether they had paid for sex ever and in the last 12 months. Cross-sectional associations between paying for sex in the last 12 months and their jurisdiction’s legal approach to sex work (criminalized, licensed, or decriminalized), were examined with logistic regression analysis, controlling for demographic variables and relationship status. Overall, 2.2 % of the men reported paying for sex in the past year — a proportion that was not statistically different by state or territory (P = 0.26). The only variable that was associated with paying for sex was not having a regular sexual partner, or to a lesser extent, not living with a regular partner. Being aged 16–19 years was associated with lower odds of paying for sex. Being a male without a regular partner was associated with paying for sex. The legal approach to sex work in the respondent’s state of residence was not associated with having paid for sex.
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Sexual Violence Against Marginalized Victims: Choice of Victim or Victim of Choice?
Loren Horan & Eric Beauregard
Victims & Offenders, forthcoming
Abstract:
Research shows that sex trade workers and homeless populations are at a high risk of severe violence and homicide. Based on a sample of 229 violent sex offenders, we investigate the differences between sexual crimes committed against marginalized (n = 73) and nonmarginalized victims (n = 156). Findings from logistic regression analyses show that offenders who target marginalized victims are more likely to degrade their victim and use a variety of torture methods. However, offenders who target nonmarginalized victims are more likely to use a weapon, and kill the victim by strangulation. Implications for future research are discussed.
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Self-Control Versus Psychopathy: A Head-to-Head Test of General Theories of Antisociality
Matt DeLisi et al.
Youth Violence and Juvenile Justice, forthcoming
Abstract:
Self-control and psychopathy are prominent general theories of antisociality that, although present a very similar type of individual, have not often been studied in tandem, and few studies have conducted a head-to-head test of their association with serious delinquency and youth violence. Using a near census of institutionalized delinquents from Missouri, the current study found that both low self-control and psychopathy were significantly associated with various forms of delinquency and severe/chronic delinquency as measured by 90th percentile on the distribution. However, low self-control was associated with more forms of delinquency, and victimization and youth with the lowest levels of self-control were at greatest risk for pathological delinquency relative to those with the most psychopathic personality. Both self-control and psychopathy are essential for understanding the most severe variants of delinquency, and more head-to-head tests are encouraged to assess the strength of criminological theories.
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There Will Be Blood: Crime Rates in Shale-Rich U.S. Counties
Alexander James & Brock Smith
Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, forthcoming
Abstract:
Over the past decade the production of tight oil and shale gas significantly increased in the United States. This paper examines how this energy boom has affected regional crime rates throughout the country. We find positive effects on rates of various property and violent crimes in shale-rich counties. In 2013, the cost of the additional crimes in the average treatment county was roughly $2 million. These results are not easily explained by shifts in observed demographics like gender and age. There is however evidence that people with criminal records (registered sex offenders) moved disproportionally to shale-boom towns in North Dakota. We also document a rise in income inequality (a postulated determinant of criminal activity) that coincides with the timing of the energy boom. Policy makers in boom towns should anticipate these crime effects and invest in public infrastructure accordingly.
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Matt Vogel, Lauren Porter & Timothy McCuddy
Social Forces, forthcoming
Abstract:
Residential mobility is often implicated as a risk factor for delinquency. While many scholars attribute this to causal processes spurred by moving, recent research suggests that much of the relationship is due to differences between mobile and non-mobile adolescents. However, studies in this area often operationalize mobility as a single move, limiting researchers to comparing outcomes between mobile and non-mobile adolescents. This approach is rather broad, considering heterogeneity in mobility frequency as well as variation in sending and receiving neighborhood characteristics. We propose a more nuanced framework to help anticipate how characteristics of mobility experiences may mitigate, exacerbate, or fail to influence adolescent behavior. Drawing on data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health (Add Health) and the National Longitudinal Study of Youth 1997 (NLSY97), we demonstrate that “hypermobility” has detrimental behavioral consequences, increases in neighborhood disadvantage between sending and receiving neighborhoods are associated with reductions in self-reported offending, and long-distance moves reduce delinquency, but only among adolescents with prior behavioral problems. These results underscore the complex association between residential mobility and delinquency during adolescence.
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Meghan Ogle & Jillian Turanovic
Criminal Justice Policy Review, forthcoming
Abstract:
Although the juvenile justice system has adopted many alternatives to detention, the practice of detaining youth for failing to appear in court remains common. Despite its widespread use, it is unclear whether this form of detainment is harmful to juvenile offenders — especially to those who pose no credible threat to public safety. Accordingly, using data from the Florida Department of Juvenile Justice (FDJJ) and propensity score matching, we assess whether failure to appear (FTA) detention increases recidivism for low-risk youth. The results indicate that FTA detention increases official recidivism, technical recidivism, and re-detainment, and suggest that alternate policies be considered for low-risk juvenile offenders.
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Karen Abram et al.
JAMA Pediatrics, forthcoming
Design, Setting, and Participants: In the Northwestern Juvenile Project, a longitudinal US study of long-term outcomes of delinquent youth after detention, participants were interviewed in detention between November 20, 1995, and June 14, 1998, and reinterviewed up to 9 times during the 12-year study period, through May 12, 2011. Data analysis was conducted between November 18, 2013, and July 25, 2016.
Results: The study included 1829 youth at baseline (1172 males and 657 females; mean [SD] age, 14.9 [1.4] years). At the end of the study, 1520 (83.1%) of the original sample remained (944 males and 576 females; mean [SD] age, 27.6 [1.4] years). Twelve years after detention, females were more likely than males to have positive outcomes for gainful activity (odds ratio [OR], 2.53; 95% CI, 1.86-3.44), desistance from criminal activity (OR, 5.89; 95% CI, 4.38-7.92), residential independence (OR, 3.41; 95% CI, 2.57-4.52), parenting responsibility (OR, 18.65; 95% CI, 12.29-28.30), and mental health (OR, 1.48; 95% CI, 1.13-1.92). Twelve years after detention, only 21.9% of males and 54.7% of females had achieved more than half of the outcomes. As youth aged, the number of positive outcomes increased only modestly (mean increase for males, 0.37; 95% CI, 0.13-0.62; for females, 0.29; 95% CI, 0.13-0.45). Among males, non-Hispanic white individuals were significantly more likely to achieve most positive outcomes compared with minorities, but less likely to abstain from substance abuse. For example, 12 years after detention, non-Hispanic white males had nearly 3 times the odds of educational attainment compared with African American (OR, 2.82; 95% CI, 1.77-4.50) and Hispanic males (OR, 2.91; 95% CI, 1.75-4.82), and 2 to 5 times the odds of gainful activity compared with African American (OR, 5.17; 95% CI, 3.16-8.45) and Hispanic males (OR, 2.58; 95% CI, 1.56-4.26). Latent class analysis shows that African American males fared the worst, with lives characterized by incarceration, criminal activity, and few positive outcomes.
Conclusions and Relevance: Our findings highlight racial/ethnic disparities among youth in achieving positive outcomes after detention. To improve outcomes, pediatric health care professionals should recognize the importance of psychosocial health, partner with on-site psychosocial services in their practices, and facilitate access to services in the community.
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Jeffrey Sandler et al.
Psychology, Public Policy, and Law, forthcoming
Abstract:
National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS) data on juvenile sexual crime reports originating in 4 states were used to assess the association between 4 different juvenile sex offender registration policies and juvenile sexual crime reports. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) analyses revealed no significant changes from before to after the implantation of juvenile registry requirements, suggesting that none of the tested policies influenced juvenile sexual crime reports. These results are commensurate with the only study evaluating juvenile sex offender registration on first-time sexual crimes and with the broader literature evaluating (and failing to find) an association between juvenile sex offender registration enactment and juvenile sexual offense recidivism rates. Juvenile sex offender registration policies were implemented with the primary aim of improving public safety. To date, no published studies support any public safety effect associated with juvenile sex offender registration policies. The current findings, when coupled with the larger literature base, support efforts to exclude juveniles from state and federal registration policies.
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Beyond Profiling: The Institutional Sources of Racial Disparities in Policing
Charles Epp, Steven Maynard-Moody & Donald Haider-Markel
Public Administration Review, forthcoming
Abstract:
American policing faces a crisis of legitimacy. A key source of this crisis is a widespread police practice commonly endorsed by police leaders to fight crime. This is the investigatory stop, used to check out people who seem suspicious and to seize illegal drugs and guns and make arrests. Using data from an original scientific survey of drivers in the Kansas City metropolitan area, the authors show that racial disparities in police stops are concentrated in investigatory vehicle stops. In these stops, but not others, officers disproportionately stop African Americans and question and search them. The overwhelming majority of people stopped in this way are innocent, and the experience causes psychological harm and erodes trust in and cooperation with the police. Many of the most controversial police shootings during the past two years occurred in these stops. Reforming this practice is an essential step toward restoring trust in the police.
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Phillip Kopp
Criminal Justice Policy Review, forthcoming
Abstract:
Traditionally considered a non-violent property offense, burglary is nonetheless classified as a violent crime under the federal Armed Career Criminal Act (ACCA). The ACCA, a three-strikes law that provides a mandatory minimum sentence of 15 years, is triggered when an offender, who has been previously convicted for a crime classified under the ACCA as either a “violent felony” or “serious drug offense,” is convicted at the federal level for any felony committed while in possession of a firearm. The present study investigated the ACCA’s classification of burglary as violent through analysis of National Crime Victimization Survey data for the period of 2009 to 2014. Results showed that burglary is overwhelmingly a non-violent offense. The national incidence of actual violence or threats of violence during a burglary was 7.9%. At most, 2.7% of burglaries involved actual acts of violence. Legislative reform of the ACCA classification to match the empirical description of burglary is discussed.
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A city-level analysis of property crime clearance rates
Jeffrey Roth
Criminal Justice Studies, Winter 2017, Pages 45-62
Abstract:
Theft, burglary, and vehicle theft are among the most frequently committed and least commonly cleared Part I offenses in the United States, but have received disproportionately little attention in the clearance literature. This study contributes to recent efforts to remedy this shortage by presenting offense-specific analyses of burglary, larceny, and vehicle theft clearance rates in a sample of 110 large US cities. Data were gathered from the Uniform Crime Report, the Law Enforcement Management and Administrative Statistics survey, and the American Community Survey. Independent variables comprised social disorganization measures (e.g. residential instability, poverty, etc.) and policing variables, including the use of broken windows policing. Although broken windows policing is related to higher clearance rates in a few prior studies, that effect was not observed in the present work. Racial diversity and police spending per capita (which were negatively associated with clearance rates) were the only variables that were significantly associated with the clearance of all three crimes.
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Graduated response policies to digital piracy: Do they increase box office revenues of movies?
Jordi McKenzie
Information Economics and Policy, March 2017, Pages 1–11
Abstract:
This study investigates the impact of six countries’ graduated response policies to digital piracy — sometimes referred to as ‘three-strike’ policies — on film-level theatrical box office revenues. Applying a quasi-three-way effects difference-in-difference model, no compelling evidence of increasing revenues is observed in any of the markets considered. This finding brings into question the efficacy of graduated response laws if one of the primary objectives is to increase sales in legitimate markets.