Calculated Risks
Reopening Scenarios
David Baqaee et al.
NBER Working Paper, May 2020
Abstract:
We use a five-age epidemiological model, combined with 66-sector economic accounting, to address a variety of questions concerning the economic reopening. We calibrate/estimate the model using contact survey data and data on weekly historical individual actions and non-pharmaceutical interventions in the weeks ending March 8 – May 16, 2020. Going forward, we model a decision-maker (governor) as following reopening guidelines like those proposed by the White House and the CDC. The sectoral accounting, combined with information on personal proximity and ability to work from home by sector, make it possible to construct a GDP-to-Risk index of which sectors provide the greatest increment in GDP per marginal increase in R0. Through simulations, we find that: a strong economic reopening is possible; a “smart” reopening, preferencing some sectors over others, makes only modest improvements over a broad reopening; and all this hinges on retaining strong restrictions on non-work social contacts. If non-work contacts – going to bars, shopping without social distancing and masks, large group gatherings, etc. – return only half-way to the pre-COVID-19 baseline, the current decline in deaths reverses leading to a second wave of business closures.
Stay-at-Home Orders Were Issued Earlier in Economically Unfree States
Bryan McCannon
West Virginia University Working Paper, April 2020
Abstract:
Stay-at-Home orders curtailed the individual liberty of those across the United States. Governors of some states move swiftly to impose the lockdowns. Others delayed and a few even refused to implement these policies. I explore common narratives of what determines the speed of implementation, namely partisanship and virus exposure. While correlation exists, I show that the most-consistent explanation for the speed of the implementation of these orders is the state's economic freedom. It was the economically unfree who issued the Stay-at-Home orders earlier.
The Relationship between In-Person Voting, Consolidated Polling Locations, and Absentee Voting on COVID-19: Evidence from the Wisconsin Primary
Chad Cotti et al.
NBER Working Paper, May 2020
Abstract:
On April 7, 2020, Wisconsin held a major election for state positions and presidential preferences for both major parties. News reports showed pictures of long lines of voters due to fewer polling locations and suggested that the election may further the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. A contract-tracing analysis by the Wisconsin Department of Health identified 52 confirmed cases of COVID-19 to in-person voting, but no research has conducted a broader analysis of the extent to which in-person voting increased the number of COVID-19 cases. We use county level data on voting and COVID-19 tests to connect the election to the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. We find a statistically and economically significant association between in-person voting and the spread of COVID-19 two to three weeks after the election. Furthermore, we find the consolidation of polling locations, and relatively fewer absentee votes, increased positive testing rates two to three weeks after the election. Our results offer estimates of the potential increased costs of in-person voting as well as potential benefits of absentee voting during a pandemic.
The Persuasive Effect of Fox News: Non-Compliance with Social Distancing During the Covid-19 Pandemic
Andrey Simonov et al.
NBER Working Paper, May 2020
Abstract:
We test for and measure the effects of cable news in the US on regional differences in compliance with recommendations by health experts to practice social distancing during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic. We use a quasi-experimental design to estimate the causal effect of Fox News viewership on stay-at-home behavior by using only the incremental local viewership due to the quasi-random assignment of channel positions in a local cable line-up. The average partial effect of Fox News viewership in a zipcode implies that 1 percentage point increase in cable viewership reduces the propensity to stay at home by 8.9 percentage points compared to the pre-pandemic average. We find a persuasion rate of Fox News on non-compliance with stay-at-home behavior during the crisis of about 33.5%-50% across our various social distancing metrics.
Fatalism, Beliefs, and Behaviors During the COVID-19 Pandemic
Jesper Akesson et al.
NBER Working Paper, May 2020
Abstract:
Little is known about individual beliefs concerning the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). Still less is known about how these beliefs influence the spread of the virus by determining social distancing behaviors. To shed light on these questions, we conduct an online experiment (n = 3,610) with participants in the US and UK. Participants are randomly allocated to a control group, or one of two treatment groups. The treatment groups are shown upper- or lower-bound expert estimates of the infectiousness of the virus. We present three main empirical findings. First, individuals dramatically overestimate the infectiousness of COVID-19 relative to expert opinion. Second, providing people with expert information partially corrects their beliefs about the virus. Third, the more infectious people believe that COVID-19 is, the less willing they are to take social distancing measures, a finding we dub the “fatalism effect”. We estimate that small changes in people's beliefs can generate billions of dollars in mortality benefits. Finally, we develop a theoretical model that can explain the fatalism effect.
NIH funding and the pursuit of edge science
Mikko Packalen & Jay Bhattacharya
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, forthcoming
Abstract:
The National Institutes of Health (NIH) plays a critical role in funding scientific endeavors in biomedicine. Funding innovative science is an essential element of the NIH’s mission, but many have questioned the NIH’s ability to fulfill this aim. Based on an analysis of a comprehensive corpus of published biomedical research articles, we measure whether the NIH succeeds in funding work with novel ideas, which we term edge science. We find that edge science is more often NIH funded than less novel science, but with a delay. Papers that build on very recent ideas are NIH funded less often than are papers that build on ideas that have had a chance to mature for at least 7 y. We have three further findings. First, the tendency to fund edge science is mostly limited to basic science. Papers that build on novel clinical ideas are not more often NIH funded than are papers that build on well-established clinical knowledge. Second, novel papers tend to be NIH funded more often because there are more NIH-funded papers in innovative areas of investigation, rather than because the NIH funds innovative papers within research areas. Third, the NIH’s tendency to have funded papers that build on the most recent advances has declined over time. In this regard, NIH funding has become more conservative despite initiatives to increase funding for innovative projects. Given our focus on published papers, the results reflect both the funding preferences of the NIH and the composition of the applications it receives.
The Impact of Open Access Mandates on Invention
Kevin Bryan & Yasin Ozcan
Review of Economics and Statistics, forthcoming
Abstract:
How do barriers to the diffusion of academic research affect innovation? In 2008, the NIH mandated free online availability of funded research. This policy caused a 50 percentage point increase in free access to funded articles. We introduce a novel measure, in-text patent citations, to study how this mandate affected industry use of academic science. After 2008, patents cite NIH-funded research 12-27% more often. Non-funded research, funded research in journals unaffected by the mandate, and academic citations see no change. These estimates are consistent with a model of search for useful knowledge. Inefficiency caused by academic publishing may be substantial.
Effect of a Federal Paid Sick Leave Mandate on Working and Staying at Home: Evidence from Cellular Device Data
Martin Andersen et al.
NBER Working Paper, May 2020
Abstract:
We study the effects of the temporary federal paid sick leave mandate that became effective April 1st, 2020 on ‘social distancing,’ as proxied by physical mobility behavior gleaned from cellular devices. The national paid leave policy was implemented in response to the COVID-19 outbreak and provided many private and many public employees, including individuals employed in the gig economy, with up to two weeks of paid leave. We study the early impact of the federal paid sick leave policy using interrupted time series analyses and difference-in-differences methods leveraging pre-FFCRA county-level differences in mobility. Our proxies for the ability to social distance are the share of cellular devices that are located in the workplace eight or more hours per day (‘full-time work’) and leave the home for less than one hour per day (‘at home’) in each county. Our findings suggest that the federal mandate decreased our full-time work proxy and increased our at home proxy. In particular, we find an initial decrease in working full-time of 17.7% and increase in staying home of 7.5%, with effects dissipating within three weeks. Given that up to 47% of employees are covered by the federal mandate, our effect sizes are arguably non-trivial.
A Note on Long-Run Persistence of Public Health Outcomes in Pandemics
Peter Zhixian Lin & Christopher Meissner
NBER Working Paper, May 2020
Abstract:
Covid-19 is the single largest threat to global public health since the Spanish Influenza pandemic of 1918-20. Was the world better prepared in 2020 than it was in 1918? After a century of public health and basic science research, pandemic response and mortality outcomes should be better than in 1918-20. We ask whether historical mortality from pandemics has any predictive content for mortality in the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic. We find a strong persistence in public health performance in the early days of the Covid-19 pandemic. Places that performed poorly in terms of mortality in 1918 were more likely to have higher mortality today. This is true across countries and across a sample of US cities. Experience with SARS is associated with lower mortality today. Distrust of expert advice, lack of cooperation at many levels, over-confidence, and health care supply shortages have likely promoted higher mortality today as in the past.
Fracking and Risky Sexual Activity
Scott Cunningham, Gregory DeAngelo & Brock Smith
Journal of Health Economics, forthcoming
Abstract:
This paper examines the impact of the U.S. fracking boom on local STI transmission rates and prostitution activity as measured by online prostitution review counts. We first document significant and robust positive effects on gonorrhea rates in fracking counties at the national level. But we find no evidence that fracking increases prostitution when using our national data, suggesting sex work may not be the principal mechanism linking fracking to gonorrhea growth. To explore mechanisms, we then focus on remote, high-fracking production areas that experienced large increases in sex ratios due to male in-migration. For this restricted sample we find enhanced gonorrhea transmission effects and moderate evidence of extensive margin effects on prostitution markets. This study highlights public health concerns relating to economic shocks and occupational conditions that alter the local demographic composition.
Etiology of Autism Spectrum Disorders and Autistic Traits Over Time
Mark Taylor et al.
JAMA Psychiatry, forthcoming
Importance: The frequency with which autism spectrum disorders (ASDs) are diagnosed has shown a marked increase in recent years. One suggestion is that this is partly because of secular changes in the environment, yet to our knowledge this hypothesis lacks evidence.
Design, Setting, and Participants: A twin design was used to assess whether the heritability of ASD and autistic traits has changed over time. Data from 2 nationwide Swedish twin cohorts was used: the Swedish Twin Registry (STR; participants born between January 1982 and December 2008) and the Child and Adolescent Twin Study in Sweden (CATSS; participants born between January 1992 and December 2008). Autism spectrum disorder diagnoses were identified for twins in the STR, with follow-up to 2013. Questionnaires assigned screening diagnoses of ASD to CATSS participants and assessed autistic traits. Analyses were performed from September 1, 2018, to March 31, 2019.
Results: Data were available for 22 678 twin pairs (5922 female same-sex pairs [26.1%], 5563 male same-sex pairs [24.5%], and 11193 opposite-sex pairs [49.4%]) in the STR and 15 280 pairs (4880 female same-sex pairs [31.9%], 5092 male same-sex pairs [33.3%], and 5308 opposite-sex pairs [34.7%]) in CATSS. The heritability of ASD diagnoses in the STR ranged from 0.88 (95% CI, 0.74-0.96) to 0.97 (95% CI, 0.89-0.99). The heritability of screening diagnoses in CATSS varied from 0.75 (95% CI, 0.58-0.87) to 0.93 (95% CI, 0.84-0.98). Autistic traits showed a modest variance increase over time that was associated with increases in genetic and environmental variance, with the total variance increasing from 0.95 (95% CI, 0.92-0.98) to 1.17 (95% CI, 1.13-1.21) over time.
Conclusions and Relevance: Weak evidence was found for changes in the genetic and environmental factors underlying ASD and autistic traits over time. Genetic factors played a consistently larger role than environmental factors. Environmental factors are thus unlikely to explain the increase in the prevalence of ASD.
The Relative Contribution of Socioeconomic and Genetic Factors to Variation in Body Mass Index among Young Adults
Rockli Kim et al.
American Journal of Epidemiology, forthcoming
Abstract:
In light of recent findings on the small proportion of variance in body mass index (BMI) explained by shared environment, and growing interests in the role of genetic susceptibility, we assess the relative contribution of socioeconomic status (SES) and genome-wide polygenic score for BMI to explaining variation in BMI. Our final analytic sample included 4,918 white and 1,546 black individuals from the US National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health Wave IV (2007-2008) who had complete measures on BMI, demographics, SES, genetic data, and health behaviors. We employed ordinary least-squares regression to assess variation in log(BMI) as a function of the aforementioned predictors, independently and mutually adjusted. All analyses were stratified by race/ethnicity and further by sex. The age-adjusted variation in log(BMI) was 0.055 among whites and 0.066 among blacks. The contribution of SES and polygenic score ranged from <1%-6% and 2-8%, respectively, and majority of the variation (87-96%) in log(BMI) remained unexplained. Differential distribution of socioeconomic resources, stressors and buffers may interact to produce systematically larger variation in vulnerable populations. Further understanding on the contribution of biological, genetic and environmental factors as well as stochastic elements in diverse phenotypic variance is needed in population health sciences.
Decomposing Trends in Child Obesity
Ashley Wendell Kranjac & Robert Wagmiller
Population Research and Policy Review, April 2020, Pages 375–388
Abstract:
We unravel the absolute level and relative prominence of two demographic processes that are relevant for childhood obesity, and that will ultimately determine the long-term course and pace of change in child obesity rates. We leverage data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey to decompose change in child obesity from 1971 to 2012. We partition change into that attributable to (1) healthier, more nutritionally and economically advantaged cohorts in the population being replaced by cohorts of children who are less advantaged (between-cohort change), and (2) the health habits, nutrition, and social and economic circumstances of all cohorts of children worsening over time (within-cohort change). The rise in obesity among children aged 2 to 19 years is solely due to intracohort change driven by variation in food security composition and in the diet of the population over time. Child obesity in the population rose largely because of individual increases in weight status that are broadly distributed across age and cohort groups. Smaller but significant cohort replacement effects slightly attenuated these intracohort change effects over the study period, leading to a more gradual increase in obesity. Our results provide some reasons for optimism. Given that population estimates of child obesity rose because the typical member of all cohorts became heavier over time at all stages of the early life course, successful policy and health interventions that focus on changing health habits across all ages and generations have the potential to quickly slow or reverse the upward trend in child obesity.
The Impact of Information Disclosure on Consumer Behavior: Evidence from a Randomized Field Experiment of Calorie Labels on Restaurant Menus
John Cawley, Alex Susskind & Barton Willage
Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, forthcoming
Abstract:
In 2018, the U.S. adopted a nationwide law requiring that chain restaurants post calorie counts on their menus and menu boards. This has led to considerable interest in the extent to which providing calorie information leads consumers to choose healthier diets. To estimate the impact of calorie labeling, we conducted a randomized controlled field experiment in two full‐service restaurants, in which the control group received menus without calorie counts and the treatment group received the same menus but with calorie counts. We estimate that the calorie labels resulted in a 3.0 percent reduction in calories ordered, with the reduction occurring in appetizers and entrées but not drinks or desserts. Exposure to the information also increased consumers’ support for requiring calorie labels by 9.6 percent. These results are informative about the impact of the new nationwide menu label requirement, and more generally contribute to the literature on the impact of information disclosure on consumer behavior.
Nudging while online grocery shopping: A randomized feasibility trial to enhance nutrition in individuals with food insecurity
Jaime Coffino, Tomoko Udo & Julia Hormes
Appetite, forthcoming
Abstract:
Food insecurity, the inability to acquire adequate food due to insufficient resources for food, is associated with an increased risk for obesity and associated health problems. This study assessed the feasibility and initial efficacy of a prefilled online grocery shopping cart (i.e., default option) in promoting healthier grocery purchases in individuals with food insecurity. Fifty participants recruited from food pantries in New York in 2018 were randomized to review nutrition information before purchasing groceries online (n = 23) or modify a prefilled, nutritionally balanced online shopping cart (n = 27) based on a budget corresponding to Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program benefits. Compared to nutrition education, the default shopping cart resulted in the purchase of significantly more ounces of whole grains (Mean Difference [Mdiff] = −4.05; 95% Confidence Interval [CI] = −6.14, −1.96; p < .001), cups of fruits (Mdiff = −1.51; 95% CI = −2.51, −0.59; p = .002) and vegetables (Mdiff = −2.21; 95% CI = −4.01, −0.41; p = .02), foods higher in fiber (mg; Mdiff = −15.65; 95% CI = −27.43, −3.87; p = .01), and lower in sodium (mg; Mdiff = 1642.66; 95% CI = 660.85, 2624.48; p = .002), cholesterol (mg; Mdiff = 463.86; 95% CI = 198.76, 728.96; p = .001), and grams of fat (Mdiff = 75.42; 95% CI = 42.81, 108.03; p < .001) and saturated fat (Mdiff = 26.20; 95% CI = 14.07, 38.34; p < .001). The use of a default online shopping cart appears to improve nutritional quality of food purchases in individuals facing financial constraints.