Burn notice
The Value of Climate Amenities: Evidence from US Migration Decisions
Paramita Sinha & Maureen Cropper
NBER Working Paper, February 2013
Abstract:
We value climate amenities by estimating a discrete location choice model for households that changed metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) between 1995 and 2000. The utility of each MSA depends on location-specific amenities, earnings opportunities, housing costs, and the cost of moving to the MSA from the household's 1995 location. We use the estimated trade-off between wages and climate amenities to value changes in mean winter and summer temperatures. At median temperatures for 1970 to 2000, a 1°F increase in winter temperature is worth less than a 1° decrease in summer temperature; however, the reverse is true at winter temperatures below 25°F. These results imply an average welfare loss of 2.7 percent of household income in 2020 to 2050 under the B1 (climate-friendly) scenario from the special report on emissions scenarios (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2000), although some cities in the Northeast and Midwest benefit. Under the A2 (more extreme) scenario, households in 25 of 26 cities suffer an average welfare loss equal to 5 percent of income.
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Saving Mr. Nature: Anthropomorphism Enhances Connectedness To and Protectiveness Toward Nature
Kim-Pong Tam, Sau-Lai Lee & Melody Manchi Chao
Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, May 2013, Pages 514-521
Abstract:
Nature is often anthropomorphized in the environmental discourse. However, whether anthropomorphism of nature has any impact on the way people relate to and behave toward nature has rarely been examined. With three experiments, the present research addresses this issue. It shows that in general anthropomorphism of nature fosters conservation behavior. Moreover, when nature is anthropomorphized, people feel more connected to it; this sense of connectedness mediates the association between anthropomorphism of nature and conservation behavior. These findings contribute to the understanding of anthropomorphism and that of human-nature relationship. They also bear practical implications for environmental promotion. Future research directions are identified.
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Do liberal home owners consume less electricity? A test of the voluntary restraint hypothesis
Dora Costa & Matthew Kahn
Economics Letters, forthcoming
Abstract:
Using a unique data set that merges an electric utility's residential customer monthly electricity consumption in 2008 with household level data on demographics, structure and neighborhood characteristics and the political party of registration for the head of household, this paper documents that liberal households consume less electricity than observationally identical households. In the absence of first best carbon pricing, such "voluntary restraint" helps to mitigate the challenge of climate change.
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Dust and Biological Aerosols from the Sahara and Asia Influence Precipitation in the Western U.S.
Jessie Creamean et al.
Science, forthcoming
Abstract:
Winter storms in California's Sierra Nevada increase seasonal snowpack and provide critical water resources for the state. Thus, the mechanisms influencing precipitation in this region have been the subject of research for decades. Previous studies suggest Asian dust enhances cloud ice and precipitation (1), while few studies consider biological aerosols as an important global source of ice nuclei (IN). Here, we show that dust and biological aerosols transported from as far as the Sahara were present in glaciated high-altitude clouds coincident with elevated IN concentrations and ice-induced precipitation. This study presents the first direct cloud and precipitation measurements showing that Saharan and Asian dust and biological aerosols likely serve as IN and play an important role in orographic precipitation processes over the western United States.
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New Trans-Arctic shipping routes navigable by midcentury
Laurence Smith & Scott Stephenson
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, forthcoming
Abstract:
Recent historic observed lows in Arctic sea ice extent, together with climate model projections of additional ice reductions in the future, have fueled speculations of potential new trans-Arctic shipping routes linking the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. However, numerical studies of how projected geophysical changes in sea ice will realistically impact ship navigation are lacking. To address this deficiency, we analyze seven climate model projections of sea ice properties, assuming two different climate change scenarios [representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5] and two vessel classes, to assess future changes in peak season (September) Arctic shipping potential. By midcentury, changing sea ice conditions enable expanded September navigability for common open-water ships crossing the Arctic along the Northern Sea Route over the Russian Federation, robust new routes for moderately ice-strengthened (Polar Class 6) ships over the North Pole, and new routes through the Northwest Passage for both vessel classes. Although numerous other nonclimatic factors also limit Arctic shipping potential, these findings have important economic, strategic, environmental, and governance implications for the region.
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Fracturing Over Creation Care? Shifting Environmental Beliefs Among Evangelicals, 1984-2010
Sabrina Danielsen
Journal for the Scientific Study of Religion, March 2013, Pages 198-215
Abstract:
While evangelicals have been popularly portrayed as caring primarily about social issues including abortion and homosexuality, there have been more reports in recent years of evangelical leaders, congregations, and institutions shifting focus to environmental issues. Are evangelicals shifting attention to and becoming more progressive in their views on the environment? Moreover, are evangelicals fracturing over the issue of environmentalism, as some have suggested? Using content analysis of three evangelical periodicals (Christianity Today, Sojourners, and World) from 1984 to 2010, I find not only that attention to environmental issues has increased over time, but also that the discussion has grown increasingly polarized and politicized. This change represents a potentially important break with the Republican Party and the Christian Right, as moderate evangelicals have moved to the left on environmental issues. Even among highly religious, self-identified evangelical political elites, there is more diversity in views and political leanings than is commonly assumed. I conclude with a discussion of the implications of a lack of alignment between evangelical elites, traditional Christian Right leaders, and the Republican Party.
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Hurricane Forecast Revisions and Petroleum Refiner Equity Returns
Jason Fink & Kristin Fink
Energy Economics, forthcoming
Abstract:
We test the return reaction of an index of petroleum refining firms to the official forecast revisions for major tropical storms in the refinery-dense region of the northwest Gulf of Mexico. First, we find that improvements in official hurricane forecasts over the last twenty years have had a direct effect on when asset prices react in anticipation of tropical storms. In the 1990s, traders react to forecasts at the 24-hour horizon. A decade later they react earlier - price movements in the 2000s react to forecast information at the 48-hour horizon. Second, we find that the effect of upward revisions in storm intensity is associated with increases in the returns to our index. These increases only accrue to large firms, perhaps due to these firms' ability to utilize geographic diversification and previously idle capacity to take advantage of storm-induced increases in refined petroleum prices.
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Low-Probability Flood Risk Modeling for New York City
Jeroen Aerts et al.
Risk Analysis, forthcoming
Abstract:
The devastating impact by Hurricane Sandy (2012) again showed New York City (NYC) is one of the most vulnerable cities to coastal flooding around the globe. The low-lying areas in NYC can be flooded by nor'easter storms and North Atlantic hurricanes. The few studies that have estimated potential flood damage for NYC base their damage estimates on only a single, or a few, possible flood events. The objective of this study is to assess the full distribution of hurricane flood risk in NYC. This is done by calculating potential flood damage with a flood damage model that uses many possible storms and surge heights as input. These storms are representative for the low-probability/high-impact flood hazard faced by the city. Exceedance probability-loss curves are constructed under different assumptions about the severity of flood damage. The estimated flood damage to buildings for NYC is between US$59 and 129 millions/year. The damage caused by a 1/100-year storm surge is within a range of US$2 bn-5 bn, while this is between US$5 bn and 11 bn for a 1/500-year storm surge. An analysis of flood risk in each of the five boroughs of NYC finds that Brooklyn and Queens are the most vulnerable to flooding. This study examines several uncertainties in the various steps of the risk analysis, which resulted in variations in flood damage estimations. These uncertainties include: the interpolation of flood depths; the use of different flood damage curves; and the influence of the spectra of characteristics of the simulated hurricanes.
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The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-pandemic Influenza connection: Coincident or causal?
Jeffrey Shaman & Marc Lipsitch
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 26 February 2013, Pages 3689-3691
Abstract:
We find that the four most recent human influenza pandemics (1918, 1957, 1968, and 2009), all of which were first identified in boreal spring or summer, were preceded by La Niña conditions in the equatorial Pacific. Changes in the phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation have been shown to alter the migration, stopover time, fitness, and interspecies mixing of migratory birds, and consequently, likely affect their mixing with domestic animals. We hypothesize that La Niña conditions bring divergent influenza subtypes together in some parts of the world and favor the reassortment of influenza through simultaneous multiple infection of individual hosts and the generation of novel pandemic strains. We propose approaches to test this hypothesis using influenza population genetics, virus prevalence in various host species, and avian migration patterns.
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Self-interest and pro-environmental behavior
Laurel Evans et al.
Nature Climate Change, February 2013, Pages 122-125
Abstract:
Inspired by the principles used to market physical products, campaigns to promote pro-environmental behaviour have increasingly emphasized self-interested (for example, economic) reasons for engaging with a self-transcendent cause (that is, protecting the environment). Yet, psychological evidence about values and behaviour suggests that giving self-interested reasons, rather than self-transcending reasons, to carry out a self-transcending action should be ineffective at increasing self-transcending behaviour more generally. In other words, such a campaign may fail to cause spillover, or an increase in other, different environmental behaviours. Here we show that recycling rates are dependent on the information participants receive about a separate environmental behaviour, car-sharing (carpooling in the USA). In two experiments, we found that recycling was significantly higher than control when participants received environmental information about car-sharing, but was no different from control when they received financial information or (in experiment 2) received both financial and environmental information. Our results suggest that, congruent with value theory, positive spillover from one environmental message to another behaviour (car-sharing to recycling) may occur primarily when self-transcending reasons alone are made salient.
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Lion Hirth
Energy Economics, forthcoming
Abstract:
This paper provides a comprehensive discussion of the market value of variable renewable energy (VRE). The inherent variability of wind speeds and solar radiation affects the price that VRE generators receive on the market (market value). During wind and sunny times the additional electricity supply reduces the prices. Because the drop is larger with more installed capacity, the market value of VRE falls with higher penetration rate. This study aims to develop a better understanding how the market value with penetration, and how policies and prices affect the market value. Quantitative evidence is derived from a review of published studies, regression analysis of market data, and the calibrated model of the European electricity market EMMA. We find the value of wind power to fall from 110 percent of the average power price to 50-80 percent as wind penetration increases from zero to 30 percent of total electricity consumption. For solar power, similarly low values levels are reached already at 15 percent penetration. Hence, competitive large-scale renewables deployment will be more difficult to accomplish than many anticipate.
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A tale of three counties: Understanding wind development in the rural Midwestern United States
Kate Mulvaney, Patrick Woodson & Linda Stalker Prokopy
Energy Policy, forthcoming
Abstract:
Understanding the context in which local wind farm development has been accepted by the local community is important for meeting the United States' wind energy goals. To further this understanding in the rural Midwest, we investigated three counties in Indiana with varying levels of wind farm development using a mail survey, stakeholder interviews and a review of local newspaper articles and government documents. We found high levels of acceptance for wind energy in general and for local wind farms in all three counties despite the differences in actual development. Multiple statistical methods were employed to identify factors leading to support of wind turbines within the community, but support was so high that no individual factors were identified as statistically significant. The survey and interviews showed that reasons for support of wind energy include economic benefits to the local community, environmental benefits and the protection of the agricultural lifestyle and landscape. Reasons for opposition include concerns about setback distances, impacts on rural lifestyles, and impacts on other types of development. Despite overall community support, the support of the local county governments varied and appears to have greatly impacted wind farm development within their jurisdictions.
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Strategic incentives for climate geoengineering coalitions to exclude broad participation
Katharine Ricke, Juan Moreno-Cruz & Ken Caldeira
Environmental Research Letters, January-March 2013
Abstract:
Solar geoengineering is the deliberate reduction in the absorption of incoming solar radiation by the Earth's climate system with the aim of reducing impacts of anthropogenic climate change. Climate model simulations project a diversity of regional outcomes that vary with the amount of solar geoengineering deployed. It is unlikely that a single small actor could implement and sustain global-scale geoengineering that harms much of the world without intervention from harmed world powers. However, a sufficiently powerful international coalition might be able to deploy solar geoengineering. Here, we show that regional differences in climate outcomes create strategic incentives to form coalitions that are as small as possible, while still powerful enough to deploy solar geoengineering. The characteristics of coalitions to geoengineer climate are modeled using a 'global thermostat setting game' based on climate model results. Coalition members have incentives to exclude non-members that would prevent implementation of solar geoengineering at a level that is optimal for the existing coalition. These incentives differ markedly from those that dominate international politics of greenhouse-gas emissions reduction, where the central challenge is to compel free riders to participate.
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The Indirect Effect of Fine Particulate Matter on Health through Individuals' Life-style
Cinzia Di Novi
Journal of Socio-Economics, June 2013, Pages 27-36
Abstract:
Limited literature has been published on the association between environmental health indicators, life-style habits and ambient air pollution. We have examined the association of asthma prevalence and the amount of health investment with daily mean concentrations of particulate matter (PM) with a mass median aerodynamic diameter less than 2.5 mm (PM2.5) in 16 metropolitan areas in U.S. using the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (2001) data in conjunction with the Air Quality System data collected by the Environmental Protection Agency. A multivariate probit approach has been used to estimate recursive systems of equations for environmental health outcome and life-styles. A piecewise linear relationship has been postulated to describe the association between health outcome, health investment and pollution. We have assumed one change point at AQI value of 100 which corresponds to the US national air quality standard. The most interesting result concerns the influence of pollution on health-improving life-style choices: below a specified threshold concentration (AQI = 100) a positive linear association exists between exposure to PM2.5 and health investments; above the threshold the association becomes negative. Hence, only if ambient pollution is in the ‘satisfactory range' (AQI level at or below 100), individuals will have incentive to invest in health.
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Gaming in Air Pollution Data? Lessons from China
Yuyu Chen et al.
B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, December 2012
Abstract:
Protecting the environment during economic growth is a challenge facing every country. This paper focuses on two regulatory measures that China has adopted to incentivize air quality improvement: publishing a daily air pollution index (API) for major cities since 2000 and linking the API to performance evaluations of local governments. In particular, China defines a day with an API at or below 100 as a blue sky day. Starting in 2003, a city with at least 80% blue sky days in a calendar year (among other criteria) qualified for the "national environmental protection model city" award. This cutoff was increased to 85% in 2007. Using officially reported API data from 37 large cities during 2000-2009, we find a significant discontinuity at the threshold of 100 and this discontinuity is of a greater magnitude after 2003. Moreover, we find that the model cities were less likely to report API right above 100 when they were close to the targeted blue sky days in the fourth quarter of the year when or before they won the model city award. That being said, we also find significant correlation of API with two alternative measures of air pollution - namely visibility as reported by the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) and Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD), corrected for meteorological conditions, from NASA satellites. The discontinuity around 100 suggests that count of blue sky days could have been subject to data manipulation; nevertheless, API does contain useful information about air pollution.
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Increased greenhouse-gas intensity of rice production under future atmospheric conditions
Kees Jan van Groenigen, Chris van Kessel & Bruce Hungate
Nature Climate Change, March 2013, Pages 288-291
Abstract:
Increased atmospheric CO2 and rising temperatures are expected to affect rice yields and greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions from rice paddies. This is important, because rice cultivation is one of the largest human-induced sources of the potent GHG methane (CH4) and rice is the world's second-most produced staple crop. The need for meeting a growing global food demand argues for assessing GHG emissions from croplands on the basis of yield rather than land area, such that efforts to reduce GHG emissions take into consideration the consequences for food production. However, it is unclear whether or how the GHG intensity (that is, yield-scaled GHG emissions) of cropping systems will be affected by future atmospheric conditions. Here we show, using meta-analysis, that increased atmospheric CO2 (ranging from 550 to 743 ppmV) and warming (ranging from +0.8 °C to +6 °C) both increase the GHG intensity of rice cultivation. Increased atmospheric CO2 increased GHG intensity by 31.4%, because CH4 emissions are stimulated more than rice yields. Warming increased GHG intensity by 11.8% per 1 °C, largely owing to a decrease in yield. This analysis suggests that rising CO2 and warming will approximately double the GHG intensity of rice production by the end of the twenty-first century, stressing the need for management practices that optimize rice production while reducing its GHG intensity as the climate continues to change.
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Do urbanization and industrialization affect energy intensity in developing countries?
Perry Sadorsky
Energy Economics, May 2013, Pages 52-59
Abstract:
Against a backdrop of concerns about climate change, peak oil, and energy security issues, reducing energy intensity is often advocated as a way to at least partially mitigate these impacts. This study uses recently developed heterogeneous panel regression techniques like mean group estimators and common correlated effects estimators to model the impact that income, urbanization and industrialization has on energy intensity for a panel of 76 developing countries. In the long-run, a 1% increase in income reduces energy intensity by - 0.45% to - 0.35%. Long-run industrialization elasticities are in the range 0.07 to 0.12. The impact of urbanization on energy intensity is mixed. In specifications where the estimated coefficient on urbanization is statistically significant, it is slightly larger than unity. The implications of these results for energy policy are discussed.
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Continental arc-island arc fluctuations, growth of crustal carbonates, and long-term climate change
Cin-Ty Lee et al.
Geosphere, February 2013, Pages 21-36
Abstract:
The Cretaceous to early Paleogene (ca. 140-50 Ma) was characterized by a greenhouse baseline climate, driven by elevated concentrations of atmospheric CO2. Hypotheses for the elevated CO2 concentrations invoke an increase in volcanic CO2 production due to higher oceanic crust production rates, higher frequency of large igneous provinces, or increases in pelagic carbonate deposition, the last leading to enhanced carbonate subduction into the mantle source regions of arc volcanoes. However, these are not the only volcanic sources of CO2 during this time interval. We show here that ocean-continent subduction zones, manifested as a global chain of continental arc volcanoes, were as much as 200% longer in the Cretaceous and early Paleogene than in the late Paleogene to present, when a cooler climate prevailed. In particular, many of these continental arcs, unlike island arcs, intersected ancient continental platform carbonates stored on the continental upper plate. We show that the greater length of Cretaceous-Paleogene continental arcs, specifically carbonate-intersecting arcs, could have increased global production of CO2 by at least 3.7-5.5 times that of the present day. This magmatically driven crustal decarbonation flux of CO2 through continental arcs exceeds that delivered by Cretaceous oceanic crust production, and was sufficient to drive Cretaceous-Paleogene greenhouse conditions. Thus, carbonate-intersecting continental arc volcanoes likely played an important role in driving greenhouse conditions in the Cretaceous-Paleogene. If so, the waning of North American and Eurasian continental arcs in the Late Cretaceous to early Paleogene, followed by a fundamental shift in western Pacific subduction zones ca. 52 Ma to an island arc-dominated regime, would have been manifested as a decline in global volcanic CO2 production, prompting a return to an icehouse baseline in the Neogene. Our analysis leads us to speculate that long-term (>50 m.y.) greenhouse-icehouse oscillations may be linked to fluctuations between continental- and island arc-dominated states. These tectonic fluctuations may result from large-scale changes in the nature of subduction zones, changes we speculate may be tied to the assembly and dispersal of continents. Specifically, dispersal of continents may drive the leading edge of continents to override subduction zones, resulting in continental arc volcanism, whereas assembly of continents or closing of large ocean basins may be manifested as large-scale slab rollback, resulting in the development of intraoceanic volcanic arcs. We suggest that greenhouse-icehouse oscillations are a natural consequence of plate tectonics operating in the presence of continental masses, serving as a large capacitor of carbonates that can be episodically purged during global flare-ups in continental arcs. Importantly, if the global crustal carbonate reservoir has grown with time, as might be expected because platform carbonates on continents do not generally subduct, the greenhouse-driving potential of continental arcs would have been small during the Archean, but would have increased in the Neoproterozoic and Phanerozoic after a significant reservoir of crustal carbonates had formed in response to the evolution of life and the growth of continents.
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The Effects of Bailouts and Soft Budget Constraints on the Environment
Joel Wood
Environmental and Resource Economics, January 2013, Pages 127-137
Abstract:
This paper investigates the effects of financial relief programs, commonly referred to as ‘bailouts', on pollution. A partial equilibrium soft budget constraint model of the firm is developed to identify the effect of bailouts on the emission decisions of firms. The results from the model indicate that the expectation of bailouts increases ex ante emissions. A more stringent emissions tax is required to achieve the same level of emissions if bailouts are available than if bailouts are not available; however, a tradable permit system will maintain the same emissions level if bailouts are available as when bailouts are not available.
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Climate change may cause severe loss in the economic value of European forest land
Marc Hanewinkel et al.
Nature Climate Change, March 2013, Pages 203-207
Abstract:
European forests, covering more than 2 million km2 or 32% of the land surface, are to a large extent intensively managed and support an important timber industry. Climate change is expected to strongly affect tree species distribution within these forests. Climate and land use are undergoing rapid changes at present, with initial range shifts already visible. However, discussions on the consequences of biome shifts have concentrated on ecological issues. Here we show that forecasted changes in temperature and precipitation may have severe economic consequences. On the basis of our model results, the expected value of European forest land will decrease owing to the decline of economically valuable species in the absence of effective countermeasures. We found that by 2100 - depending on the interest rate and climate scenario applied - this loss varies between 14 and 50% (mean: 28% for an interest rate of 2%) of the present value of forest land in Europe, excluding Russia, and may total several hundred billion Euros. Our model shows that - depending on different realizations of three climate scenarios - by 2100, between 21 and 60% (mean: 34%) of European forest lands will be suitable only for a Mediterranean oak forest type with low economic returns for forest owners and the timber industry and reduced carbon sequestration.
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Green-up dates in the Tibetan Plateau have continuously advanced from 1982 to 2011
Geli Zhang et al.
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, forthcoming
Abstract:
As the Earth's third pole, the Tibetan Plateau has experienced a pronounced warming in the past decades. Recent studies reported that the start of the vegetation growing season (SOS) in the Plateau showed an advancing trend from 1982 to the late 1990s and a delay from the late 1990s to 2006. However, the findings regarding the SOS delay in the later period have been questioned, and the reasons causing the delay remain unknown. Here we explored the alpine vegetation SOS in the Plateau from 1982 to 2011 by integrating three long-term time-series datasets of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI): Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS, 1982-2006), SPOT VEGETATION (SPOT-VGT, 1998-2011), and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS, 2000-2011). We found GIMMS NDVI in 2001-2006 differed substantially from SPOT-VGT and MODIS NDVIs and may have severe data quality issues in most parts of the western Plateau. By merging GIMMS-based SOSs from 1982 to 2000 with SPOT-VGT-based SOSs from 2001 to 2011 we found the alpine vegetation SOS in the Plateau experienced a continuous advancing trend at a rate of ∼1.04 d•y-1 from 1982 to 2011, which was consistent with observed warming in springs and winters. The satellite-derived SOSs were proven to be reliable with observed phenology data at 18 sites from 2003 to 2011; however, comparison of their trends was inconclusive due to the limited temporal coverage of the observed data. Longer-term observed data are still needed to validate the phenology trend in the future.
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A Sustainable Building Promotes Pro-Environmental Behavior: An Observational Study on Food Disposal
David W.-L. Wu, Alessandra DiGiacomo & Alan Kingstone
PLoS ONE, January 2013
Abstract:
In order to develop a more sustainable society, the wider public will need to increase engagement in pro-environmental behaviors. Psychological research on pro-environmental behaviors has thus far focused on identifying individual factors that promote such behavior, designing interventions based on these factors, and evaluating these interventions. Contextual factors that may also influence behavior at an aggregate level have been largely ignored. In the current study, we test a novel hypothesis - whether simply being in a sustainable building can elicit environmentally sustainable behavior. We find support for our hypothesis: people are significantly more likely to correctly choose the proper disposal bin (garbage, compost, recycling) in a building designed with sustainability in mind compared to a building that was not. Questionnaires reveal that these results are not due to self-selection biases. Our study provides empirical support that one's surroundings can have a profound and positive impact on behavior. It also suggests the opportunity for a new line of research that bridges psychology, design, and policy-making in an attempt to understand how the human environment can be designed and used as a subtle yet powerful tool to encourage and achieve aggregate pro-environmental behavior.