Bull run
Ballot Access Laws and the Decline of American Third-Parties
Bernard Tamas & Matthew Dean Hindman
Election Law Journal, June 2014, Pages 260-276
Abstract:
Party and legal scholars often argue that ballot access requirements and other state-level election laws are primary reasons that third-parties have declined in importance in the United States. According to this argument, as ballot access laws got more difficult over the twentieth century, fewer minor parties were able to run, and those that overcame these onerous restrictions had few resources left to run effective campaigns. We traced the ballot access laws of each state from the enactment of the Australian ballot to the present and analyzed their impact on elections to the House of Representatives from 1890 to 2010. We found that while these laws got more difficult over the twentieth century, they had little impact on the electoral fortunes of third-parties. We conclude that these state election laws did not cause the dramatic decline of third-parties over the past 100 years.
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The Financial Incumbency Advantage: Causes and Consequences
Alexander Fouirnaies & Andrew Hall
Journal of Politics, July 2014, Pages 711-724
Abstract:
In this article, we use a regression discontinuity design to estimate the causal effect of incumbency on campaign contributions in the U.S. House and state legislatures. In both settings, incumbency causes approximately a 20–25 percentage-point increase in the share of donations flowing to the incumbent’s party. The effect size does not vary with legislator experience and does not appear to depend on incumbent office-holder benefits. Instead, as we show, the effect is primarily the result of donations from access-oriented interest groups, especially donors from industries under heavy regulation and those with less ideological ties. Given the role of money in elections, the findings suggest that access-oriented interest groups are an important driver of the electoral security of incumbents.
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Accuracy of Vote Expectation Surveys in Forecasting Elections
Andreas Graefe
Public Opinion Quarterly, Summer 2014, Pages 204-232
Abstract:
Simple surveys that ask people who they expect to win are among the most accurate methods for forecasting US presidential elections. The majority of respondents correctly predicted the election winner in 193 (89 percent) of 217 surveys conducted from 1932 to 2012. Across the last 100 days prior to the seven elections from 1988 to 2012, vote expectation surveys provided more accurate forecasts of election winners and vote shares than four established methods (vote intention polls, prediction markets, quantitative models, and expert judgment). Gains in accuracy were particularly large compared to polls. On average, the error of expectation-based vote-share forecasts was 51 percent lower than the error of polls published the same day. Compared to prediction markets, vote expectation forecasts reduced the error on average by 6 percent. Vote expectation surveys are inexpensive and easy to conduct, and the results are easy to understand. They provide accurate and stable forecasts and thus make it difficult to frame elections as horse races. Vote expectation surveys should be more strongly utilized in the coverage of election campaigns.
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Rodrigo Praino, Daniel Stockemer & James Ratis
American Politics Research, forthcoming
Abstract:
A whole array of studies has shown that the physical appearance of candidates running for elective office matters. However, it is unclear whether attractiveness or perceived competence is the source of such electoral advantage. In addition, the gender of candidates might interact with perceptions of physical appearance. With the help of Canadian student coders and through the use of a web-based survey, we measure the threefold link between physical attractiveness, perceived competence, and gender for all races in the 2008 U.S. House of Representatives elections. We find that both the attractiveness and perceived competence of candidates matter for candidates’ electoral successes; the former having an important effect in intra-gender races and the latter in inter-gender races.
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The cost of racial animus on a black candidate: Evidence using Google search data
Seth Stephens-Davidowitz
Journal of Public Economics, October 2014, Pages 26–40
Abstract:
How can we know how much racial animus costs a black presidential candidate, if many people lie to surveys? I suggest a new proxy for an area’s racial animus from a non-survey source: the percent of Google search queries that include racially charged language. I compare the proxy to Barack Obama’s vote shares, controlling for the vote share of the previous Democratic presidential candidate, John Kerry. An area’s racially charged search rate is a robust negative predictor of Obama’s vote share. Continuing racial animus in the United States appears to have cost Obama roughly four percentage points of the national popular vote in both 2008 and 2012. The estimates using Google search data are 1.5 to 3 times larger than survey-based estimates.
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The Effects of Voter ID Notification on Voter Turnout: Results from a Large-Scale Field Experiment
Jack Citrin, Donald Green & Morris Levy
Election Law Journal, June 2014, Pages 228-242
Abstract:
State voter identification (ID) laws have proliferated in the past ten years. Political campaigns remain divided about whether and how to address identification requirements when encouraging voter turnout. This article reports results from a direct mail get-out-the-vote (GOTV) experiment, conducted during the run-up to the 2012 general election in counties along the Tennessee-Virginia border and in heavily African American precincts in Roanoke and Knoxville. Results indicate that informing low-propensity voters of a new identification requirement raises turnout by approximately one percentage point. Messages providing details about ID requirements and offering to help recipients obtain acceptable ID appear somewhat more effective than messages only pointing out the need to bring proof of identification. These mailings, which have similar effects in both states, also appear to raise turnout among others in the recipients' households. Overall, we find no evidence that calling attention to voter identification requirements dissuades voters from voting.
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Josh Pasek et al.
Public Opinion Quarterly, Summer 2014, Pages 276-302
Abstract:
Much published research indicates that voting behavior in the 2008 presidential election and evaluations of Barack Obama were importantly influenced by anti-Black sentiment. Various psychological theories made opposing predictions as to whether exposure to the first Black president during his first term would strengthen or weaken the alignment between general attitudes toward African Americans and evaluations of the president in particular. Using data from national surveys conducted in 2008, 2009–2010, and 2012, we compared the associations of prejudice toward Blacks with presidential approval in those years and with electoral choices in 2008 and 2012. As predicted by theories of individuation, attitudes toward Blacks became increasingly disconnected from evaluations of Mr. Obama and from people’s electoral choices over time. However, levels of prejudice against Blacks rose between 2008 and 2012. Because of this increased prejudice and the diminishing individual-level influence of attitudes toward Blacks on electoral choices, prejudice toward Blacks seems to have reduced Mr. Obama’s vote share in the 2012 election by about the same extent as in 2008.
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E-lections: Voting Behavior and the Internet
Oliver Falck, Robert Gold & Stephan Heblich
American Economic Review, July 2014, Pages 2238-2265
Abstract:
This paper analyzes the effects on voting behavior of information disseminated over the Internet. We address endogeneity in Internet availability by exploiting regional and technological peculiarities of the preexisting voice telephony network that hindered the roll-out of fixed-line infrastructure for high-speed Internet. We find negative effects of Internet availability on voter turnout, which we relate to a crowding-out of TV consumption and increased entertainment consumption. We find no evidence that the Internet systematically benefits specific parties, suggesting ideological self-segregation in online information consumption. Robustness tests, including placebo estimations from the pre-Internet period, support a causal interpretation of our results.
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The economic determinants of U.S. presidential approval: A survey
Michael Berlemann & Sören Enkelmann
European Journal of Political Economy, forthcoming
Abstract:
Even after four decades of research it remains unclear, whether presidential popularity depends on the state of the economy. While about half of all studies for the United States find a significant effect of unemployment and inflation on presidential popularity, the others do not. Additional economic issues have rarely been studied. In this survey article we study the likely causes for the inconclusive findings. While various factors have an influence on the results, especially the choice of the sample period is of crucial importance. While in the very long run we find unemployment and inflation to have a robust effect on presidential approval, this holds not true for shorter sub-periods. This result might indicate that the popularity function is instable over time. However, the findings might also be taken as an indication that the most often employed linear estimation approach is inadequate. Further research on these issues is necessary.
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Proportionality and Turnout: Evidence From French Municipalities
Andrew Eggers
Comparative Political Studies, forthcoming
Abstract:
Many studies find that voter turnout is higher in proportional representation (PR) elections than in plurality elections, but because the two systems differ in multiple ways and are used in different contexts it is difficult to know precisely why. I focus on municipal elections in France, where cities above a certain population threshold are required to use a PR system while those below use a type of plurality rule; this setting allows me to compare political outcomes across electoral systems while holding fixed a large set of social and political features. I find that the PR system noticeably increases turnout compared with plurality. I provide evidence suggesting that it does so in part by encouraging turnout in lopsided races and in part by inducing entry of new candidates. The findings highlight the importance of electoral proportionality in explaining cross-national differences in voter turnout.
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Attribution Error in Economic Voting: Evidence from Trade Shocks
Rosa Hayes, Masami Imai & Cameron Shelton
Economic Inquiry, forthcoming
Abstract:
This article exploits the international transmission of business cycles to examine the prevalence of attribution error in economic voting in a large panel of countries from 1990 to 2009. We find that voters, on average, exhibit a strong tendency to oust the incumbent governments during an economic downturn, regardless of whether the recession is home-grown or merely imported from trading partners. However, we find important heterogeneity in the extent of attribution error. A split sample analysis shows that countries with more experienced voters, more educated voters, and possibly more informed voters — all conditions that have been shown to mitigate other voter agency problems — do better in distinguishing imported from domestic growth.
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Does Survey Mode Still Matter? Findings from a 2010 Multi-Mode Comparison
Stephen Ansolabehere & Brian Schaffner
Political Analysis, Summer 2014, Pages 285-303
Abstract:
In this article, we present data from a three-mode survey comparison study carried out in 2010. National surveys were fielded at the same time over the Internet (using an opt-in Internet panel), by telephone with live interviews (using a national Random Digit Dialing (RDD) sample of landlines and cell phones), and by mail (using a national sample of residential addresses). Each survey utilized a nearly identical questionnaire soliciting information across a range of political and social indicators, many of which can be validated with government data. Comparing the findings from the modes using a Total Survey Error approach, we demonstrate that a carefully executed opt-in Internet panel produces estimates that are as accurate as a telephone survey and that the two modes differ little in their estimates of other political indicators and their correlates.
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Dynamics in Partisanship during American Presidential Campaigns
Corwin Smidt
Public Opinion Quarterly, Summer 2014, Pages 303-329
Abstract:
Despite their potential importance, little is known about the nature and prevalence of party identification dynamics within American presidential campaigns. This study reviews existing research to propose three basic contrasting models. It then introduces multivariate state space methods that account for sampling error and survey design effects to evaluate each model’s relative support within daily national survey data of the 1984, 2000, 2004, and 2008 presidential campaigns. The results indicate that the balance of party identifiers had near-certain changes during three of the four campaigns, with campaign events often being associated with these changes. These findings suggest that polls and analyses that fail to allow for sudden shifts in party identifications will mask changes in public opinion. More generally, the findings demonstrate that campaigns shape party coalitions on Election Day, and possibly thereafter.
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Uncertainty and Campaigns: The Psychological Mechanism Behind Campaign-Induced Priming
David Peterson
American Politics Research, forthcoming
Abstract:
Campaigns change how some people vote. How campaigns have this effect is less well understood. The prevailing view is that these effects occur by changing the content of voters’ attitudes such as partisanship or issue positions (persuasion) and by changing the weights voters applied to these determinants of vote choice (priming). Recent research has challenged this view and suggests that the support for these priming and persuasion effects is overstated. Unfortunately, no research directly specifies and tests the specific psychological mechanism responsible for campaign priming. In this article, I draw on the differences in the forms of attitude strength and demonstrate that changes in citizens’ uncertainty are responsible for these effects. The results suggest that persuasion and changes in uncertainty (but not ambivalence or importance) are responsible for the changes in voters’ decisions during the campaign. Substantively, the largest effects occur because of changes in the uncertainty voters have about the nature of the candidates’ character traits.
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Denis Wu & Renita Coleman
Journalism & Mass Communication Quarterly, forthcoming
Abstract:
This study examines the impact of affect on candidate evaluation and voting intention by conducting an experiment using three treatments: positive, negative, and neutral nonverbal expressions of a fictional congressional office-seeker. Three issues were addressed in the TV interviews. Results show that candidate image exerts a stronger influence on viewers’ voting intention than the candidate’s stance on issues, controlling for viewers’ prior attitudes toward those issues. In addition, negative affect is more powerful than positive, reinforcing the belief that making a good impression will not help a candidate as much as a bad impression will hurt.
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Online Polls and Registration-Based Sampling: A New Method for Pre-Election Polling
Michael Barber et al.
Political Analysis, Summer 2014, Pages 321-335
Abstract:
This article outlines a new method for surveys to study elections and voter attitudes. Pre-election surveys often suffer from an inability to identify and survey the likely electorate for the upcoming election. We propose a new and inexpensive method to conduct representative surveys of the electorate. We demonstrate the performance of our method in producing a representative sample of the future electorate that can be used to study campaign dynamics and many other issues. We compare pre-election outcome forecasts to election outcomes in seven primary and general election surveys conducted prior to the 2008 and 2010 primary and general elections in three states. The results indicate that the methodology produces representative samples, including in low-turnout elections such as primaries where traditional methods have difficulty consistently sampling the electorate. This new methodology combines Probability Proportional to Size (PPS) sampling, mailed invitation letters, and online administration of the questionnaire. The PPS sample is drawn based on a model employing variables from the publicly available voter file to produce a probability of voting score for each individual voter. The proposed method provides researchers a valuable tool to study the attitudes of the voting public.