Breaking Bads
The mark or trace of a criminal record: A survey experiment of race and criminal record signaling
Sarah Lageson & Robert Apel
Criminology, forthcoming
Abstract:
Employment discrimination from a criminal record is a salient social fact, evidenced by a robust body of experimental research. In Part 1 of this study, we analyze prior criminal record hiring experiments -- comprising in-person audits, online audits, and opt-in surveys -- to describe patterns over time in employer receptivity to applicants of different races with criminal records. In Part 2, we use a novel experimental survey of 1080 employers to measure how differences in the signaling of a criminal record impact the criminal record–employment relationship. Our results reveal a substantial hiring penalty for an official criminal record (conveyed by a background check report), with a smaller but still significant penalty for an unofficial criminal record (an Internet search engine “hit”). The experiment also shows that the official criminal record penalty is significantly larger for White applicants than for Black applicants. Although the latter finding was counter to expectations informed by prior studies, it is less surprising considering our Part 1 findings, which reveal a closing racial gap in the criminal record penalty during the last 20 years. We discuss how broader legal, social, and technological changes, as well as changes in methodologies, impact our understanding today of criminal records, race, and employment.
Too Close to Home? Proximity to BLM Protests and Support for Police Spending
Ikhwan Kweon & Iuliia Shybalkina
American Politics Research, forthcoming
Abstract:
This study explores the relationship between physical proximity to Black Lives Matter (BLM) protests and support for police spending. Proximity may either amplify awareness of police underperformance or heighten personal safety concerns, compared to experiencing protests indirectly through media. Focusing on Chicago, our research employs a difference-in-differences design and unique measures of spending support and protest locations. Overall, we observe a significant decrease in support for police spending in 2020 compared to 2019 across all neighborhoods. However, living near protest sites did not, on average, play a notable role. There was some variation in response based on subgroup characteristics and protest conditions. Specifically, neighborhoods with higher percentages of non-Black residents and lower crime rates experienced an additional decrease in demand for police spending near protests, while areas with higher Black populations, higher crime rates, or prolonged protests saw a smaller decline in demand. This evidence deepens our understanding of how protests shape public opinion and suggests potential pathways for police reform.
Bad medicine: Why different systems of organized crime demand different solutions
Christopher Blattman
University of Chicago Working Paper, November 2024
Abstract:
International drug trafficking dominates the conversation on organized crime, but equally common and serious are urban systems of organized crime -- criminal groups focused not on exports or transshipment, but on dominating local markets, neighborhoods, and politics. When policymakers do pay attention to this problem, they consistently make the same mistake -- believing there are best practices. But systems of organized crime are not all alike. There is no one blueprint or general solution, and so following the latest fad is unlikely to deliver the desired result. Instead of trying to copy the quasi-mythological success of a Giuliani or Bukele, policymakers need to understand what kind of organized crime problem they have, what capabilities their city possesses, and what tools are appropriate to the circumstances. This paper looks in-depth at how organized crime is organized in three cities: Chicago, Medellín, and San Salvador. It also considers New York, Bogotá, and Port-au-Prince. I argue that the primary driver of their organization and incentives is their source of criminal revenues. A second major driver of behavior is the degree of criminal political organization, which broadly-speaking takes three forms: atomized individuals, fragmented groups, and competing confederations. These forms are not just the product of their revenues, but are also the result of decades of competition with the state and one another. What policy tools will work hinges on this diagnosis. I look at the evidence for a range of standard policies -- from crackdowns to street outreach -- and explain why we can expect them to have wildly different impacts depending on the context.
Less-Lethal Weapons and Civilian Injury in Police Use of Force Encounters: A Multi-agency Analysis
Kevin Petersen et al.
Journal of Urban Health, April 2025, Pages 389-399
Abstract:
Police use-of-force is a growing public health concern, with recent estimates suggesting that over 70,000 people are injured by police each year. To reduce the risk of injury to civilians, most police agencies authorize the use of various less-lethal weapons. However, to date, there is little consensus as to which types of less-lethal weapons are most effective at reducing injury risk. In this study, we test the differential effects of less-lethal weapons on civilian injury and injury severity using data on 2348 use-of-force incidents originating from 17 large urban and metropolitan law enforcement agencies from 2015 to 2019. Specifically, we assess the injury risks associated with conducted energy devices, chemical agents, impact weapons, and police canines, while controlling for a robust set of officer, civilian, and situational characteristics. Our results indicate that chemical agents reduce the risk of hospitalization or death significantly more than other weapon types, while police canines increase the risk of all injury outcomes significantly more than other weapon types. Adjusting for incident characteristics, chemical agents are predicted to cause hospitalization or death in 4% of cases, compared to 13% for conducted energy devices, 16% for impact weapons, and 37% for police canines. These findings suggest that civilian injury may be reduced through use-of-force policies that prioritize less severe modalities of force, though more research is needed on the contextual and long-term effects of these weapons.
Effects of Prison Security Level on the Violent Misconduct for New Federal Prison Entries
Jason Gwinn, Miles Harer & Neal Langan
Prison Journal, forthcoming
Abstract:
This study investigated the independent effects of security level on rates of violent misconduct, and other forms of misconduct in Federal prison. With first-time federally incarcerated people, this study tested the effect of security level in a sharp intention-to-treat regression discontinuity to separate the effect from individual characteristics. Higher security was independently associated with higher rates of violent misconduct at medium (vs. low) and high (vs. medium) security. This study refers to this result as an “inflator effect.” Policy implications are discussed in the wake of the ban on Federal private prisons, and implications for risk assessment design are discussed.
Do White and Black People Truly View the Police Differently? Findings from a Study of Crime Hot Spots in Baltimore, Maryland
Kiseong Kuen et al.
American Journal of Criminal Justice, June 2025, Pages 541-564
Abstract:
While numerous studies demonstrate that Black individuals have more negative perceptions of the police than their White counterparts, few have simultaneously examined racial differences in perceptions of procedural justice, police effectiveness, and legitimacy. Additionally, limited research has rigorously examined the relationship between race and perceptions of the police while carefully accounting for potentially relevant factors that could influence this relationship. Using unique survey data largely drawn from crime hot spots in Baltimore, Maryland, we examined the differences between White (n = 500) and Black (n = 2,452) individuals’ perceptions of procedural justice, police effectiveness, and police legitimacy. Furthermore, by conducting propensity-score matching on White and Black residents in our data, we compared perceptions of the police between 394 pairs of similarly situated Black and White residents who were matched based on demographics, victimization, offending, self-control, recent experiences with the police, perceived police presence, and street environments. Results indicated that while Black people have more negative perceptions of procedural justice than White people, they do not hold different perceptions regarding police effectiveness and obligation to obey. These findings hold even when comparing the matched White and Black people. Our findings suggest a nuanced relationship between race and perceptions of the police.
Why do right to carry laws increase violence? Effects on gun theft and clearance rates
John Donohue et al.
Journal of Urban Economics, May 2025
Abstract:
Since the 1970s most state restrictions on carrying handguns in public have been eased or eliminated. Several of the early impact evaluations of these changes tended to support the belief that laws that facilitated gun carrying by private citizens deterred violent crime (while possibly increasing property crime). But more recent studies of the impacts of right to carry (RTC) laws conclude that the net effect is to increase state-level violent-crime rates relative to more restrictive regimes. This finding implies that the deterrence mechanism is swamped by other mechanisms, but there has been little evidence on which ones are important in practice. Using a novel data set of 217 large cities over 41 years, we confirm that violent crime increases following RTC adoption. We then document two mechanisms that may account for this result, finding a 50 percent increase in gun theft and a 9-18 percent reduction in violent crime clearance rates. Further analysis of city-level heterogeneity in RTC-induced effects is consistent with the hypothesis that gun theft is a likely cause of the RTC-induced increase in violent crime and more tentative evidence points to clearance as a potential driver.
Extreme Heat and Firearm Violence in New York City Public Housing: The Mitigating Role of Air Conditioning
Leah Roberts et al.
Journal of Urban Health, April 2025, Pages 344-351
Abstract:
Higher outdoor temperatures are associated with greater incidence of firearm violence in urban areas in the United States. This study adds to the existing literature base by exploring the potential mitigating role of air conditioning (AC). The setting for this repeated-measures ecological cross-sectional study is New York City Housing Authority (NYCHA) developments, which are known to experience disproportionate rates of firearm violence. We extracted data for 2012–2017 for two types of shooting events: all New York City (NYC) shootings and those in NYCHA housing. Negative binomial mixed-effects regressions explored the relationship between electricity consumption, a proxy for AC use in warmer months, and shootings, controlling for housing development characteristics and the Area Deprivation Index. Separate analyses were conducted for months whose maximum average temperatures were in different deciles. During our study period, 18% of NYC shootings occurred in NYCHA housing. We observed a positive relationship between monthly maximum temperature decile and NYCHA shooting incidence (IRR = 1.11, 95% CI: 1.08, 1.14). For months with temperatures in the top decile (84–87°F), increased electricity consumption was associated with a decrease in the expected rate of shootings (IRR = 0.79, 95% CI: 0.63, 0.98). These findings suggest AC and other cooling-related interventions may be useful in reducing firearm violence in public housing during hotter months. However, improved data on AC access and use are needed to better understand this relationship.
Describing the Hazard of Recidivism Among Individuals Convicted of Sex-Related Offenses: Results From a Long-Term Follow-Up in Michigan
Jason Rydberg et al.
Criminal Justice and Behavior, forthcoming
Abstract:
This study uses administrative data from Michigan to present a descriptive analysis of recidivism hazard among a large cohort of individuals convicted of sex-related offenses (ICSOs) (N = 23,621) with an average follow-up of 10.5 years, up to a maximum of 15 years. Using Bayesian discrete-time survival models, we find within 15 years 19% of this cohort of ICSOs was returned to prison, for either a new crime or technical violation, or received a new probation sentence. Sexual recidivism was rare. With the caveat that demographic information on the sample was not available for statistical controls, we found risk was higher among those released from prison without supervision (“max outs”). As the hazard of recidivism was relatively higher in the first year at risk, and then gradually dissipated, the findings reiterate the importance of front-loading supervision services and intensity toward the earlier periods of time at risk in the community.
Competition or Cooperation? The Case of Revenue From Traffic Citations
Siân Mughan & Akheil Singla
Public Budgeting & Finance, forthcoming
Abstract:
Governments often interact in public service provision, sometimes competing for resources and other times cooperating to improve efficiency. In traffic enforcement, state and local agencies share responsibility, which could encourage collaboration. However, because traffic tickets generate revenue, financial incentives may drive competition. We examine whether local ticketing responds strategically to state enforcement. Our findings show that when local governments keep citation revenues, they increase ticketing in response to state enforcement, indicating competition. Conversely, when they don't benefit financially, we observe cooperation, suggesting financial incentives shape intergovernmental enforcement dynamics.