Better Judgment
Heidi Gardner
Administrative Science Quarterly, March 2012, Pages 1-46
Abstract: In this paper, I develop and empirically test the proposition that performance pressure acts as a double-edged sword for teams, providing positive effects by enhancing the team's motivation to achieve good results while simultaneously triggering process losses. I conducted a multimethod field study of 78 audit and consulting teams from two global professional firms, revealing an irony of team life: even though motivated to perform well on a high-stakes project, pressured teams are more likely to engage in performance-detracting behaviors. Survey results show that, as performance pressure increases, team members begin to overly rely on general expertise while discounting domain-specific expertise, leading to suboptimal performance. I then use longitudinal qualitative case studies of six project teams across two firms to explore the underlying behavioral mechanisms that generate this outcome. Results reveal four limiting team processes: (1) a drive toward consensus, (2) a focus on common knowledge, (3) a shift from learning to project completion, and (4) increased conformity to the status hierarchy. Results also show that only domain-specific expertise - the kind that teams underuse when facing higher pressure - increases client-rated team performance. I thus find, paradoxically, that when teams need domain-specific expertise the most, they tend to use it the least, despite evidence suggesting they are highly motivated to do well on their task.
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Alibi Believability: The Impact of Salacious Alibi Activities
Meredith Allison, Kyla Mathews & Stephen Michael
Social Behavior and Personality, May 2012, Pages 605-612
Abstract: We examined how alibi strength and a suspect's claim of engaging in salacious alibi activities impact alibi believability. Specifically, we investigated whether an alibi of watching an X-rated movie versus watching a regular movie caused differences in alibi believability, perceived likelihood of guilt, and ratings of various character traits. Undergraduates read a crime description and a mock transcript before completing a questionnaire (adapted from Olson & Wells, 2004). Alibis were rated as more believable when the suspect provided a salacious alibi. Suspects with salacious alibis were rated as more honest, open, and less likely to be guilty.
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Will get fooled again: Emotionally intelligent people are easily duped by high-stakes deceivers
Alysha Baker, Leanne ten Brinke & Stephen Porter
Legal and Criminological Psychology, forthcoming
Purpose: There is major disagreement about the existence of individual differences in deception detection or naturally gifted detection ‘wizards' (see O'Sullivan & Ekman, 2004 vs. Bond & Uysal, 2007). This study aimed to elucidate the role of a specific, and seemingly relevant individual difference - emotional intelligence (EI) and its subcomponents - in detecting high-stakes, emotional deception.
Methods: Participants (N= 116) viewed a sample of 20 international videos of individuals emotionally pleading for the safe return of their missing family member, half of whom were responsible for the missing person's disappearance/murder. Participants judged whether the pleas were honest or deceptive, provided confidence ratings, reported the cues they utilized, and rated their emotional response to each plea.
Results: EI was associated with overconfidence in assessing the sincerity of the pleas and greater self-reported sympathetic feelings to deceptive targets (enhanced gullibility). Although total EI was not associated with discrimination of truths and lies, the ability to perceive and express emotion (a component of EI), specifically, was negatively related to detecting deceptive targets (lower sensitivity [d′]). Combined, these patterns contributed negatively to the ability to spot emotional lies.
Conclusions: These findings collectively suggest that features of EI, and subsequent decision-making processes, paradoxically may impair one's ability to detect deceit.
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Jon Maner et al.
Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, forthcoming
Abstract: This article presents an evolutionary framework for identifying the characteristics people use to categorize members of their social world. Findings suggest that fundamental social motives lead people to implicitly categorize social targets based on whether those targets display goal-relevant phenotypic traits. A mate-search prime caused participants to categorize opposite-sex targets (but not same-sex targets) based on their level of physical attractiveness (Experiment 1). A mate-guarding prime interacted with relationship investment, causing participants to categorize same-sex targets (but not opposite-sex targets) based on their physical attractiveness (Experiment 2). A self-protection prime interacted with chronic beliefs about danger, increasing participants' tendency to categorize targets based on their racial group membership (Black or White; Experiment 3). This work demonstrates that people categorize others based on whether they display goal-relevant characteristics reflecting high levels of perceived desirability or threat. Social categorization is guided by fundamental evolved motives designed to enhance adaptive social outcomes.
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Identifying the cognitive basis of mental toughness: Evidence from the directed forgetting paradigm
Stephen Dewhurst et al.
Personality and Individual Differences, forthcoming
Abstract: The concept of mental toughness has been found to be related to outcome performance measures in sport and other competitive situations. Despite this, little attention has been devoted to understanding the cognitive mechanisms that underlie mental toughness. The current study attempted to identify the cognitive underpinnings of mental toughness using the directed forgetting paradigm, in which participants are given a surprise memory test for material they were previously instructed to forget. Regression analyses showed that mental toughness, as measured by the MTQ48 (Clough, Earle, & Sewell, 2002), did not influence the recall of a to-be-forgotten list, but participants with high mental toughness showed better recall of a to-be-remembered list following instructions to forget the previous list. The superior recall of the to-be-remembered list suggests that mentally tough individuals have an enhanced ability to prevent unwanted information from interfering with current goals. These findings support the proposal that cognitive inhibition is one of the mechanisms underpinning mental toughness.
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Pay-what-you-want, identity, and self-signaling in markets
Ayelet Gneezy et al.
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 8 May 2012, Pages 7236-7240
Abstract: We investigate the role of identity and self-image consideration under "pay-what-you-want" pricing. Results from three field experiments show that often, when granted the opportunity to name the price of a product, fewer consumers choose to buy it than when the price is fixed and low. We show that this opt-out behavior is driven largely by individuals' identity and self-image concerns; individuals feel bad when they pay less than the "appropriate" price, causing them to pass on the opportunity to purchase the product altogether.
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To Review or Not to Review? Limited Strategic Thinking at the Movie Box Office
Alexander Brown, Colin Camerer & Dan Lovallo
American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, May 2012, Pages 1-26
Abstract: Film studios occasionally withhold movies from critics before their release. These cold openings provide a natural setting to apply laboratory-developed models of limited strategic thinking to the field. In a set of 1303 widely released movies, cold opening is correlated with a 10-30 percent increase in domestic box-office revenue, and a pattern of fan disappointment, consistent with the hypothesis that some moviegoers do not infer low quality from cold opening. While selection and endogeneity may play a role in these regressions, the full pattern of results is consistent with level-k and cognitive hierarchy behavioral-game-theoretic models.
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Defaults and Attention: The Drop Out Effect
Andrew Caplin & Daniel Martin
NBER Working Paper, April 2012
Abstract: When choice options are complex, policy makers may seek to reduce decision making errors by making a high quality option the default. We show that this positive effect is at risk because such a policy creates incentives for decision makers to "drop out" by paying no attention to the decision and accepting the default sight unseen. Using decision time as a proxy for attention, we confirm the importance of this effect in an experimental setting. A key challenge for policy makers is to measure, and if possible mitigate, such drop out behavior in the field.
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Vikram Chib et al.
Neuron, 10 May 2012, Pages 582-594
Abstract: Employers often make payment contingent on performance in order to motivate workers. We used fMRI with a novel incentivized skill task to examine the neural processes underlying behavioral responses to performance-based pay. We found that individuals' performance increased with increasing incentives; however, very high incentive levels led to the paradoxical consequence of worse performance. Between initial incentive presentation and task execution, striatal activity rapidly switched between activation and deactivation in response to increasing incentives. Critically, decrements in performance and striatal deactivations were directly predicted by an independent measure of behavioral loss aversion. These results suggest that incentives associated with successful task performance are initially encoded as a potential gain; however, when actually performing a task, individuals encode the potential loss that would arise from failure.
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A Source of Bias in Public Opinion Stability
James Druckman, Jordan Fein & Thomas Leeper
American Political Science Review, forthcoming
Abstract: A long acknowledged but seldom addressed problem with political communication experiments concerns the use of captive participants. Study participants rarely have the opportunity to choose information themselves, instead receiving whatever information the experimenter provides. We relax this assumption in the context of an over-time framing experiment focused on opinions about health care policy. Our results dramatically deviate from extant understandings of over-time communication effects. Allowing individuals to choose information themselves - a common situation on many political issues - leads to the preeminence of early frames and the rejection of later frames. Instead of opinion decay, we find dogmatic adherence to opinions formed in response to the first frame to which participants were exposed (i.e., staunch opinion stability). The effects match those that occur when early frames are repeated multiple times. The results suggest that opinion stability may often reflect biased information seeking. Moreover, the findings have implications for a range of topics including the micro-macro disconnect in studies of public opinion, political polarization, normative evaluations of public opinion, the role of inequality considerations in the debate about health care, and, perhaps most importantly, the design of experimental studies of public opinion.
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"Mind the Trap": Mindfulness Practice Reduces Cognitive Rigidity
Jonathan Greenberg, Keren Reiner & Nachshon Meiran
PLoS ONE, May 2012
Abstract: Two experiments examined the relation between mindfulness practice and cognitive rigidity by using a variation of the Einstellung water jar task. Participants were required to use three hypothetical jars to obtain a specific amount of water. Initial problems were solvable by the same complex formula, but in later problems ("critical" or "trap" problems) solving was possible by an additional much simpler formula. A rigidity score was compiled through perseverance of the complex formula. In Experiment 1, experienced mindfulness meditators received significantly lower rigidity scores than non-meditators who had registered for their first meditation retreat. Similar results were obtained in randomized controlled Experiment 2 comparing non-meditators who underwent an eight meeting mindfulness program with a waiting list group. The authors conclude that mindfulness meditation reduces cognitive rigidity via the tendency to be "blinded" by experience. Results are discussed in light of the benefits of mindfulness practice regarding a reduced tendency to overlook novel and adaptive ways of responding due to past experience, both in and out of the clinical setting.
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Illegal Downloading, Ethical Concern, and Illegal Behavior
Kirsten Robertson et al.
Journal of Business Ethics, June 2012, Pages 215-227
Abstract: Illegally downloading music through peer-to-peer networks has persisted in spite of legal action to deter the behavior. This study examines the individual characteristics of downloaders which could explain why they are not dissuaded by messages that downloading is illegal. We compared downloaders to non-downloaders and examined whether downloaders were characterized by less ethical concern, engagement in illegal behavior, and a propensity toward stealing a CD from a music store under varying levels of risk. We also examined whether downloading or individual characteristics of downloaders were similar for men and women. Findings revealed downloading was prevalent (74.5% of the student sample downloaded), men and women were equally likely to download and the factors characterizing downloading were similar for men and women. The comparison between downloaders and non-downloaders revealed downloaders were less concerned with the law, demonstrated by less ethical concern and engagement in other illegal behaviors. Downloaders were also more likely to indicate that they would steal a CD when there was no risk of being caught. Given these results, messages regarding illegality are unlikely to perturb downloaders and alternative recommendations are offered for targeting illegal downloading.
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Prospect Theory as Efficient Perceptual Distortion
Michael Woodford
American Economic Review, May 2012, Pages 41-46
Abstract: The paper proposes a theory of efficient perceptual distortions, in which the statistical relation between subjective perceptions and the objective state minimizes the error of the state estimate, subject to a constraint on information processing capacity. The theory is shown to account for observed limits to the accuracy of visual perception, and then postulated to apply to perception of options in economic choice situations as well. When applied to choice between lotteries, it implies reference-dependent valuations, and predicts both risk-aversion with respect to gains and risk-seeking with respect to losses, as in the prospect theory of Kahneman and Tversky (1979).
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Identifying Confirmatory Bias in the Field: Evidence from a Poll of Experts
Rodney Andrews, Trevon Logan & Michael Sinkey
NBER Working Paper, May 2012
Abstract: Laboratory experiments have established the existence of cognitive biases, but their explanatory power in real-world economic settings has been difficult to measure. We estimate the extent of a cognitive bias, confirmatory bias, among experts in a real-world environment. In the Associated Press Top 25 College Football Poll expert pollsters are tasked with assessing team quality, and their beliefs are treated week-to-week with game results that serve as signals about an individual team's quality. We exploit the variation provided by actual game results relative to market expectations to develop a novel regression-discontinuity approach to identify confirmatory bias in this real-world setting. We construct a unique personally-assembled dataset that matches more than twenty years of individual game characteristics to poll results and betting market information, and show that teams that slightly exceed and barely miss market expectations are exchangeable. The likelihood of winning the game, the average number of points scored by teams and their opponents, and even the average week of the season are no different between teams that slightly exceed and barely miss market expectations. Pollsters, however, significantly upgrade their beliefs about a team's quality when a team slightly exceeds market expectations. The effects are sizeable-- nearly half of the voters in the poll rank a team one slot higher when they slightly exceed market expectations; one-fifth of the standard deviation in poll points in a given week can be attributed to confirmatory bias. This type of updating suggests that even when informed agents make repeated decisions they may act in a manner which is consistent with confirmatory bias.
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Changing Beliefs and Behavior Through Experience-Taking
Geoff Kaufman & Lisa Libby
Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, forthcoming
Abstract: The present research introduces the concept of experience-taking - the imaginative process of spontaneously assuming the identity of a character in a narrative and simulating that character's thoughts, emotions, behaviors, goals, and traits as if they were one's own. Six studies investigated the degree to which particular psychological states and features of narratives cause individuals, without instruction, to engage in experience-taking and investigated how the merger between self and other that occurs during experience-taking produces changes in self-judgments, attitudes, and behavior that align with the character's. Results from Studies 1-3 showed that being in a reduced state of self-concept accessibility while reading a brief fictional work increased - and being in a heightened state of self-concept accessibility decreased - participants' levels of experience-taking and subsequent incorporation of a character's personality trait into their self-concepts. Study 4 revealed that a first-person narrative depicting an ingroup character elicited the highest levels of experience-taking and produced the greatest change in participants' behavior, compared with versions of the narrative written in 3rd-person voice and/or depicting an outgroup protagonist. The final 2 studies demonstrated that whereas revealing a character's outgroup membership as a homosexual or African American early in a narrative inhibited experience-taking, delaying the revelation of the character's outgroup identity until later in the story produced higher levels of experience-taking, lower levels of stereotype application in participants' evaluation of the character, and more favorable attitudes toward the character's group. The implications of these findings in relation to perspective-taking, self-other overlap, and prime-to-behavior effects are discussed.
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Categorization is modulated by transcranial direct current stimulation over left prefrontal cortex
Gary Lupyan et al.
Cognition, July 2012, Pages 36-49
Abstract: Humans have an unparalleled ability to represent objects as members of multiple categories. A given object, such as a pillow may be - depending on current task demands - represented as an instance of something that is soft, as something that contains feathers, as something that is found in bedrooms, or something that is larger than a toaster. This type of processing requires the individual to dynamically highlight task-relevant properties and abstract over or suppress object properties that, although salient, are not relevant to the task at hand. Neuroimaging and neuropsychological evidence suggests that this ability may depend on cognitive control processes associated with the left inferior prefrontal gyrus. Here, we show that stimulating the left inferior frontal cortex using transcranial direct current stimulation alters performance of healthy subjects on a simple categorization task. Our task required subjects to select pictures matching a description, e.g., "click on all the round things." Cathodal stimulation led to poorer performance on classification trials requiring attention to specific dimensions such as color or shape as opposed to trials that required selecting items belonging to a more thematic category such as objects that hold water. A polarity reversal (anodal stimulation) lowered the threshold for selecting items that were more weakly associated with the target category. These results illustrate the role of frontally-mediated control processes in categorization and suggest potential interactions between categorization, cognitive control, and language.
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Dopaminergic Mechanisms of Individual Differences in Human Effort-Based Decision-Making
Michael Treadway et al.
Journal of Neuroscience, 2 May 2012, Pages 6170-6176
Abstract: Preferences for different combinations of costs and benefits are a key source of variability in economic decision-making. However, the neurochemical basis of individual differences in these preferences is poorly understood. Studies in both animals and humans have demonstrated that direct manipulation of the neurotransmitter dopamine (DA) significantly impacts cost/benefit decision-making, but less is known about how naturally occurring variation in DA systems may relate to individual differences in economic behavior. In the present study, 25 healthy volunteers completed a dual-scan PET imaging protocol with [18F]fallypride and d-amphetamine to measure DA responsivity and separately completed the effort expenditure for rewards task, a behavioral measure of cost/benefit decision-making in humans. We found that individual differences in DA function in the left striatum and ventromedial prefrontal cortex were correlated with a willingness to expend greater effort for larger rewards, particularly when probability of reward receipt was low. Additionally, variability in DA responses in the bilateral insula was negatively correlated with willingness to expend effort for rewards, consistent with evidence implicating this region in the processing of response costs. These findings highlight the role of DA signaling in striatal, prefrontal, and insular regions as key neurochemical mechanisms underlying individual differences in cost/benefit decision-making.
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Focusing on what you own: Biased information uptake due to ownership
Nathaniel Ashby, Stephan Dickert & Andreas Glöckner
Judgment and Decision Making, May 2012, Pages 254-267
Abstract: The endowment effect has been debated for over 30 years. Recent research suggests that differential focus of attention might play a role in shaping preferences. In two studies we investigated the role of biased attention in the emergence of endowment effects. We thereby derive predictions from an extended version of evidence accumulation models by additionally assuming a bias in attentional allocation based on one's endowment status. We test these predictions against an alternative account in which the endowment effect is the result of initial anchoring and adjustment differences (Sequential Value Matching model; Johnson & Busemeyer, 2005). In both studies we add deliberation time constraints to a standard Willingness-to-Accept/Willingness-to-Pay paradigm and consistently find that the endowment effect grows as deliberation time increases. In Study 2 we additionally use eye tracking and find that buyers focus more on value decreasing attributes than sellers (and vice versa for value increasing attributes). This shift in attention plays a pivotal role in the construction of value and partially mediates the endowment effect.
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Following Through on Good Intentions: The Power of Planning Prompts
Katherine Milkman et al.
NBER Working Paper, April 2012
Abstract: We study whether prompts to form and recall a plan can increase individuals' responsiveness to reminders to make and attend beneficial appointments. At four companies, all employees due for a colonoscopy were randomly assigned to receive either a control mailing or a treatment mailing. The mailings were identical except that the control mailing included a blank sticky note while the treatment mailing included a sticky note that prompted the recipient to write down the appointment date for a colonoscopy and the name of the doctor who would conduct the procedure. During the seven-month follow-up period, 7.2% of treatment employees received a colonoscopy compared to 6.2% of control employees, a statistically significant difference that is roughly equal to the variation in compliance associated with a 10 percent increase in the fraction of the procedure's cost covered by insurance. The treatment effect was largest for demographic groups judged to be at the highest risk of failing to receive a colonoscopy due to forgetfulness.