Belonging
Customs and Border Protection (CBP) Activities Mobilize Hispanic Voters
Cory Smith, Donghee Jo & David Lazer
MIT Working Paper, July 2020
Abstract:
Do activities by immigration enforcement agencies suppress or mobilize Hispanic voters? To answer this question, we exploit the sharp discontinuity in the legal authority of United States Customs and Border Protection (CBP) at the boundary of the 100-mile interior US border zone. We find that CBP activities increased Hispanic voter registration and turnout in the 2016 US general election by 1.8pp and 1.5pp, respectively. We suggest that the main mechanism is via personal experiences -- observing or hearing about CBP activities -- as opposed to elite-driven campaigns that are unlikely to be spatially discontinuous. We also estimate the electoral consequences of CBP activities through a simulation exercise and find a small increase in the Democratic Party's representation in the US Congress.
Immigration Policy and Hispanics' Willingness to Run for Office
Catalina Amuedo-Dorantes & Jose Bucheli
San Diego State University Working Paper, September 2020
Abstract:
For the first time in U.S. history, approximately 10 percent of the U.S. House of Representatives is Hispanic. The greater engagement of Hispanics in national politics has occurred after unprecedented growth in interior immigration enforcement disproportionately impacting Latinos. Using county-level data on all candidates running for congressional elections over the 2008-2018 decade, we find evidence of intensified immigration enforcement suppressing Hispanics' willingness to run for Congress. The effect, which is not present for female or Black minorities, is driven by local police-based measures, and more prevalent in localities without a sanctuary policy and in states with a Republican governor.
The Economic Impact of Migrants from Hurricane Maria
Giovanni Peri, Derek Rury & Justin Wiltshire
NBER Working Paper, August 2020
Abstract:
We examine the economic impact of the large migration of Puerto Ricans to Orlando after Hurricane Maria. Using a synthetic control approach, we find that employment in Orlando increased, especially in construction and retail, and find positive aggregate labor market effects for non-Hispanic and less-educated workers. While we find that earnings for these workers decreased slightly in construction, this was balanced by earnings growth in retail and hospitality. These results are consistent with small negative impacts on earnings in sectors exposed to a labor supply shock, offset by positive effects in sectors impacted by an associated positive consumer demand shock.
The Effect of Immigration on Labor Market Transitions of Native-Born Unemployed in the United States
Fernando Rios-Avila & Gustavo Canavire-Bacarreza
Journal of Labor Research, September 2020, Pages 295-331
Abstract:
Unemployed workers are the group most likely to be affected by the presence of immigrants in their local labor markets since they are actively competing for job opportunities. Yet, little is known about the effect of immigration on labor market opportunities of the unemployed. Using a sample of unemployed native-born citizens from the monthly Current Population Survey from 2001 to 2015 and state level immigration statistics, we employ a multinomial model in the framework of a discrete hazard model with competing risks to examine the effects of immigration on the transition out of unemployment. The results suggest that immigration does not affect attrition nor the probabilities of native-born workers finding a job. Instead, we find that immigration is associated with smaller probabilities of remaining unemployed.
Does Immigration Improve Quality of Care in Nursing Homes?
Delia Furtado & Francesc Ortega
University of Connecticut Working Paper, July 2020
Abstract:
The growing healthcare needs of baby boomers require significant increases in the number or productivity of healthcare workers. This paper explores how immigrants may fill these gaps in nursing homes. First, we show that immigrant inflows are associated with reduced wages of lower skilled nurses along with increases in their employment. We then show that more immigrant labor leads to fewer falls among residents and improvements in other measures of quality of care. We also find that only in competitive nursing home markets is there a link between immigrant inflows and the quality of care provided in nursing homes.
Nativist policy: The comparative effects of Trumpian politics on migration decisions
Raymond Duch et al.
Political Science Research and Methods, forthcoming
Abstract:
Firms in the USA rely on highly skilled immigrants, particularly in the science and engineering sectors. Yet, the recent politics of immigration marks a substantial change to US immigration policy. We implement a conjoint experiment that isolates the causal effect of nativist, anti-immigrant, pronouncements on where skilled potential-migrants choose to immigrate to. While these policies have a significantly negative effect on the destination choices of Chilean and UK student subjects, they have little effect on the choices of Indian and Chinese student subjects. These results are confirmed through an unobtrusive test of subjects' general immigration destination preferences. Moreover, there is some evidence that the negative effect of these nativist policies are particularly salient for those who self-identify with the Left.
Does it matter where you came from? Ancestry composition and economic performance of US counties, 1850-2010
Scott Fulford, Ivan Petkov & Fabio Schiantarelli
Journal of Economic Growth, September 2020, Pages 341-380
Abstract:
What impact on local development do immigrants and their descendants have in the short and long term? The answer depends on the attributes they bring with them, what they pass on to their children, and how they interact with other groups. We develop the first measures of the country-of-ancestry composition and of GDP per worker for US counties from 1850 to 2010. We show that changes in ancestry composition are associated with changes in local economic development. We use the long panel and several instrumental variables strategies in an effort to assess different ancestry groups' effect on county GDP per worker. Groups from countries with higher economic development, with cultural traits that favor cooperation, and with a long history of a centralized state have a greater positive impact on county GDP per worker. Ancestry diversity is positively related to county GDP per worker, while diversity in origin-country economic development or culture is negatively related.
Once Racialized, Now "Immigrationized?" Explaining the Immigration-Welfare Link in American Public Opinion
Morris Levy
Journal of Politics, forthcoming
Abstract:
Recent research claims that American public opinion about welfare, long racialized, has become "immigrationized," or formed on the basis of people's feelings about immigration. However, the evidence to date is incapable of ruling out two alternative explanations for the immigration-welfare link. Attitudes toward immigrants and welfare recipients may instead be linked because both are shaped by the broadly ethnocentric dimension of generalized social conservatism, an orientation that fosters animosity toward a wide variety of stigmatized outgroups. They may also be correlated because stereotypes about immigrants' use of welfare are salient in opinions about immigration. This paper scrutinizes the theoretical underpinnings of each competing model and reports on a series of placebo tests, observational studies, and survey experiments designed to assess them. The results of these studies raise doubts about the centrality of immigration attitudes in American public opinion about welfare and bolster the two alternative explanations for the immigration-welfare link.
What Explains the Gap in Welfare Use among Immigrants and Natives?
Xiaoning Huang, Neeraj Kaushal & Julia Shu-Huah Wang
NBER Working Paper, September 2020
Abstract:
We investigate the gap in welfare use between immigrants and natives over a 24-year period using the Annual Social and Economic Supplement of the Current Population Survey from 1995-2018, spanning periods of economic recessions and recoveries, changes in welfare policy regimes, and policies towards immigrants. A novel contribution of our research is to adopt the Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition analysis to study the effects of demographic factors, macroeconomic trends and policy on welfare use gap between immigrants and natives. Our analysis leads to three main findings: one, if immigrants had the same demographic characteristics as natives their participation in means-tested programs would have been much less overall and much below those of natives. This finding holds true across broader measures of welfare receipt capturing cash and near cash programs and health insurance as well as participation in five specific safety net programs. It also holds true across periods of economic recessions and recovery. Second, we find evidence that the business cycle impacts immigrant and native welfare participation differently. Immigrant participations in Temporary Assistance to Needy Families, Supplemental Nutritional Assistance Program and State Children's Health Insurance Program are more sensitive to the business cycle than native participations. Three, we find that changes in program eligibility explain only a modest proportion of the immigrant-native gap in welfare use. A possible explanation for this finding is that changes in eligibility rules have affected only specific immigrant populations (e.g. new immigrants) whereas our analysis pertains to all immigrants.
Social Welfare Attitudes and Immigrants as a Target Population: Experimental Evidence
Jake Haselswerdt
Perspectives on Politics, forthcoming
Abstract:
What makes some Americans assume that social welfare programs will benefit immigrants rather than native-born Americans? How do these assumptions shape their attitudes about policy? Recent observational research has shown that immigration attitudes and social welfare attitudes are strongly correlated, but we lack evidence of exactly how this relationship works. In this pre-registered survey experiment, I study respondents' assumptions about beneficiaries of a generic social welfare policy, and test the effects of different "threat" primes on the assumption that the policy benefits immigrants rather than native-born Americans. I find that a prime constructing immigrants as a fiscal threat increases the likelihood that a respondent will make this assumption, while a prime emphasizing cultural or demographic threat has no significant effect. These effects vary by geographic context, but not by relevant attitudes. Attitudes about immigration become an important predictor of policy approval when this assumption is triggered.
Immigration and Entrepreneurship in the United States
Pierre Azoulay et al.
NBER Working Paper, September 2020
Abstract:
Immigration can expand labor supply and create greater competition for native-born workers. But immigrants may also start new firms, expanding labor demand. This paper uses U.S. administrative data and other data resources to study the role of immigrants in entrepreneurship. We ask how often immigrants start companies, how many jobs these firms create, and how these firms compare with those founded by U.S.-born individuals. A simple model provides a measurement framework for addressing the dual roles of immigrants as founders and workers. The findings suggest that immigrants act more as "job creators" than "job takers" and that non-U.S. born founders play outsized roles in U.S. high-growth entrepreneurship.
Strangers in Hostile Lands: Exposure to Refugees and Right-Wing Support in Germany's Eastern Regions
Max Schaub, Johanna Gereke & Delia Baldassarri
Comparative Political Studies, forthcoming
Abstract:
Does local exposure to refugees increase right-wing support? This paper studies a case uniquely suited to address this question: the allocation of refugees to the rural hinterlands of eastern Germany during the European refugee crisis. Similar to non-urban regions elsewhere, the area has had minimal previous exposure to foreigners, but distinctively leans towards the political right. Our data comprise electoral outcomes, and individual-level survey and behavioral measures. A policy allocating refugees following strict administrative rules and a matching procedure allow for causal identification. Our measurements confirm the presence of widespread anti-immigrant sentiments. However, these are unaffected by the presence of refugees in respondents' hometowns: on average, we record null effects for all outcomes, which we interpret as supporting a sociotropic perspective on immigration attitudes. Masked by these overall null findings, we observe convergence: local exposure to refugees appears to have pulled both right- and left-leaning individuals more towards the center.
Coping with H-1B Shortages: Firm Performance and Mitigation Strategies
Anna Maria Mayda et al.
NBER Working Paper, August 2020
Abstract:
The United States' H-1B visa program, which allows private firms to hire highly skilled foreign workers, was so severely over-subscribed in the years since 2014 that H-1B status was distributed by lotteries to a subset of applicants. Using data on H-1B applications and on a range of outcomes for publicly traded companies, we find that employers using the H-1B program experienced reduced employment, sales and profits, compared to non-users in the years since 2014. We also find that some employers anticipated the rationing of H-1Bs and retained a larger share of H-1B workers, mitigating the damaging effects of H-1B rationing on their performance.