Findings

Baby monitor

Kevin Lewis

September 19, 2013

Personality and occupational markers of ‘solid citizenship’ are associated with having fewer children

Adam Perkins et al.
Personality and Individual Differences, November 2013, Pages 871–876

Abstract:
Investigating associations between personality and reproductive fitness may reveal the adaptive significance of human behavioural traits. What we dub ‘solid-citizenship’ personality characteristics such as self-control, diligence and responsibility may repay study from an evolutionary perspective as they protect against negative life-outcomes. We explored associations between reproductive fitness and personality questionnaire markers of solid citizenship in 4981 women from four Australian samples. We also examined relations between reproductive fitness and army discharge status, an applied measure of solid citizenship, in 15,283 Vietnam War-era military veterans. In two Australian samples there were significant negative associations between reproductive fitness and personality measures of solid citizenship. Similarly, in the US study honourably discharged servicemen on average fathered significantly fewer children than non-honourably discharged servicemen. Since personality is genetically influenced, our results suggest that genetic variants for solid citizenship may be decreasing in frequency in some populations, in line with other modern findings but in contrast to historical analyses. Causes for this change may include relatively more conscientious women using contraception to prioritise their careers over reproduction and the availability of systematic welfare provisioning.

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New Evidence on Taxes and the Timing of Birth

Sara LaLumia, James Sallee & Nicholas Turner
NBER Working Paper, August 2013

Abstract:
This paper uses data from the universe of tax returns filed between 2001 and 2010 to test whether parents shift the timing of childbirth around the New Year to gain tax benefits. Filers have an incentive to shift births from early January into late December, through induction or cesarean delivery, because child-related tax benefits are not prorated. We find evidence of a positive, but very small, effect of tax incentives on birth timing. An additional $1000 of tax benefits increases the probability of a late-December birth by only about 1 percentage point. We argue that the response to tax incentives is small in part because of confusion about eligibility and delays in the issuance of Social Security Numbers for newborns, as well as a lack of control over medical procedures on the part of filers with the highest tax values. We also document a precise shifting of reported self-employment income in response to variation in incentives from the Earned Income Tax Credit due to childbirth. We estimate that this reporting response reduces federal revenue by hundreds of millions of dollars per year.

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The Changing Relationship Between Fertility Expectations and Educational Expectations: Adolescents in the 1970s Versus the 1980s

Freda Lynn, Barbara Schneider & Zhenmei Zhang
Journal of Family Issues, September 2013, Pages 1147-1174

Abstract:
This article examines the relationship between young women’s fertility expectations and educational expectations in late adolescence and at the outset of adulthood. Given progressive macro-level changes in the United States beginning in the 1960s, we compare the expectation patterns of youth from two cohorts using data from the National Longitudinal Surveys. We find that the relationship between education and fertility expectations is statistically negligible for those born in the height of the baby boom (1950s) and yet statistically positive for those born at the tail end of the baby boom (1960s). The crux of the change, however, is not driven by an increase in those who pair high educational expectations with normative or above-norm fertility expectations but rather an increase in young women who pair modest educational ambitions with low fertility expectations.

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Racial and Ethnic Differences in U.S. Women's Choice Of Reversible Contraceptives, 1995–2010

Josephine Jacobs & Maria Stanfors
Perspectives on Sexual and Reproductive Health, September 2013, Pages 139–147

Context: In the United States, unintended pregnancies disproportionately affect minority populations. Persistent disparities in contraceptive use between black and Hispanic women and white women have been identified, but it is unclear whether racial and ethnic differences in use of the most effective methods have changed.

Methods: Data on 4,727 women from the 1995 National Survey of Family Growth and 5,775 women from the 2006–2010 cycle were used to examine the association between race and ethnicity and women's choice of reversible contraceptives according to level of method effectiveness. Stepwise multinomial logistic regressions were used to identify changes in this association between cycles. Analyses controlled for demographic, socioeconomic, family, religious, behavioral and geographic characteristics.

Results: The proportion of women using the most effective reversible contraceptive methods increased from 46% in 1995 to 53% in 2006–2010. In 1995, black and Hispanic women's use of the most effective reversible contraceptives did not differ from that of white women. By 2006–2010, however, black women were substantially less likely than white women to use highly effective reversible contraceptive methods rather than no method (relative risk ratio, 0.6). An analysis that combined the two data sets and included a term for the interaction between survey year and race and ethnicity found that relative to white women, black women were less likely in 2006–2010 than in 1995 to use more effective methods rather than no method (0.6).

Conclusions: Further research is needed to identify factors that may be causing racial and ethnic disparities in contraceptive decisions to widen.

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The influence of posttraumatic stress on unprotected sex among sexually active adolescent girls and boys involved in the child welfare system of the United States

Courtenay Cavanaugh
Journal of Adolescence, October 2013, Pages 835–837

Abstract:
While posttraumatic stress (PTS) has been positively associated with risky sexual behavior (RSB) among adult women, there is a paucity of research examining PTS in relation to RSB among adolescent girls and boys. This study aimed to replicate findings among adult women with sexually active adolescents (179 females and 106 males) involved in a national study of children in the United States child welfare system. After controlling for age and the complex study design, sexually active adolescent girls with clinically significant PTS symptoms were more than seven times more likely than those without such symptoms to report unprotected intercourse. In contrast, sexually active adolescent boys with clinically significant PTS symptoms were less likely than those without such symptoms to report unprotected intercourse. Research is needed to 1) understand the mechanisms linking PTS and RSB, 2) further explore gender differences reported here, and 3) inform RSB interventions in this high-risk population.

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Potential unintended pregnancies averted and cost savings associated with a revised Medicaid sterilization policy

Sonya Borrero et al.
Contraception, forthcoming

Objective: Medicaid sterilization policy, which includes a mandatory 30-day waiting period between consent and the sterilization procedure, poses significant logistical barriers for many women who desire publicly funded sterilization. Our goal was to estimate the number of unintended pregnancies and the associated costs resulting from unfulfilled sterilization requests due to Medicaid policy barriers.

Study Design: We constructed a cost-effectiveness model from the health care payer perspective to determine the incremental cost over a 1-year time horizon of the current Medicaid sterilization policy compared to a hypothetical, revised policy in which women who desire a postpartum sterilization would face significantly reduced barriers. Probability estimates for potential outcomes in the model were based on published sources; costs of Medicaid-funded sterilizations and Medicaid-covered births were based on data from the Medicaid Statistical Information System and The Guttmacher Institute, respectively.

Results: With the implementation of a revised Medicaid sterilization policy, we estimated that the number of fulfilled sterilization requests would increase by 45%, from 53.3% of all women having their sterilization requests fulfilled to 77.5%. Annually, this increase could potentially lead to over 29,000 unintended pregnancies averted and $215 million saved.

Conclusion: A revised Medicaid sterilization policy could potentially honor women’s reproductive decisions, reduce the number of unintended pregnancies and save a significant amount of public funds.

Implication: Compared to the current federal Medicaid sterilization policy, a hypothetical, revised policy that reduces logistical barriers for women who desire publicly funded, postpartum sterilization could potentially avert over 29,000 unintended pregnancies annually and therefore lead to cost savings of $215 million each year.

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Identifying the Intergenerational Effects of the 1959–1961 Chinese Great Leap Forward Famine on Infant Mortality

Shige Song
Economics & Human Biology, forthcoming

Abstract:
Using the 1959-1961 Chinese Great Leap Forward Famine as a natural experiment, this study examines the relationship between mothers’ prenatal exposure to acute malnutrition and their children's infant mortality risk. According to the results, the effect of mothers’ prenatal famine exposure status on children's infant mortality risk depends on the level of famine severity. In regions of low famine severity, mothers’ prenatal famine exposure significantly reduces children's infant mortality, whereas in regions of high famine severity, such prenatal exposure increases children's infant mortality although the effect is not statistically significant. Such a curvilinear relationship between mothers’ prenatal malnutrition status and their children's infant mortality risk is more complicated than the linear relationship predicted by the original fetal origins hypothesis but is consistent with the more recent developmental origins of health and disease theory.

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Revisiting Consanguineous Marriage in the Greater Middle East: Milk, Blood, and Bedouins

Benjamin Reilly
American Anthropologist, September 2013, Pages 374–387

Abstract:
Although exogamy is the worldwide marriage norm, many Middle Eastern populations regularly practice consanguineous marriage. Scholars have posited a number of explanations for this phenomenon, but these theories have not identified a concrete advantage to these marriages sufficient to counterbalance the inbreeding depression and other genetic risks inherent to kin marriages. Drawing on genetic studies and mathematical models, as well as both historical and ethnographic sources, I argue in this article that the Arabian Peninsula's camel Bedouin's dependency on the lactose tolerance allele exerted a selective pressure on marriage strategies that strongly favored consanguineous marriage. For milk-dependent camel Bedouins of the Arabian Peninsula, the advantages of consanguineous marriage did indeed outweigh its risks. In addition, I posit that another common Arabian Peninsula marriage practice, the strong prohibition of marriages between higher-status and lower-status groups, was favored by the same environmental and genetic factors that favored consanguineous marriage.

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Consanguinity and Other Marriage Market Effects of a Wealth Shock in Bangladesh

Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak, Randall Kuhn & Christina Peters
Demography, forthcoming

Abstract:
This paper uses a wealth shock from the construction of a flood protection embankment in rural Bangladesh coupled with data on the universe of all 52,000 marriage decisions between 1982 and 1996 to examine changes in marital prospects for households protected by the embankment relative to unprotected households living on the other side of the river. We use difference-in-difference specifications to document that brides from protected households commanded larger dowries, married wealthier households, and became less likely to marry biological relatives. Financial liquidity-constrained households appear to use within-family marriage (in which one can promise ex-post payments) as a form of credit to meet up-front dowry demands, but the resultant wealth shock for households protected by the embankment relaxed this need to marry consanguineously. Our results shed light on the socioeconomic roots of consanguinity, which carries health risks for offspring but can also carry substantial benefits for the families involved.

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Education policy and early fertility: Lessons from an expansion of upper secondary schooling

Hans Grönqvist & Caroline Hall
Economics of Education Review, December 2013, Pages 13–33

Abstract:
This paper studies the effects of education policy on early fertility. We study a major educational reform in Sweden in which vocational tracks in upper secondary school were prolonged from two to three years and the curricula were made more academic. Our identification strategy takes advantage of cross-regional and cross-time variation in the implementation of a pilot scheme preceding the reform in which several municipalities evaluated the new policy. The empirical analysis draws on rich population micro data. We find that women who enrolled in the new programs were significantly less likely to give birth early in life. There is however, no statistically significant effect on men's fertility decisions. Our results suggest that the social benefits of changes in education policy may extend beyond those usually claimed.

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Time Trends in Biological Fertility in Western Europe

Michael Joffe et al.
American Journal of Epidemiology, 1 September 2013, Pages 722-730

Abstract:
We investigated trends in biological fertility in a comprehensive analysis of 5 major European data sets with data on time to pregnancy (TTP) and proportion of contraceptive failures. In particular, we distinguished a period effect from a birth cohort effect (lifelong tendency) in both sexes. Attempts at conception not resulting in birth were excluded. We analyzed data on pregnancies occurring in 9,247 couples between 1953 and 1993 and performed sensitivity analyses to check the robustness of findings. Separate analyses of each time effect showed an increasing fertility trend. Mutually adjusted analyses demonstrated that this rise was visible as a male cohort effect for both TTP and contraceptive failure. On the other hand, the female birth cohort effect showed a slight fall in the first half of the study period for both TTP and contraceptive failure. As a period effect, fertility remained generally stable, the slight trends in TTP and contraceptive failure being in opposite directions, likely indicating an artifact. The rising trend accords with most previous evidence. The increasing trend in male fertility does not contradict the previously reported semen quality deterioration, the effects of which are calculated to be small. The declining female fertility accords with a falling dizygotic twinning rate during the same period.

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The effects of birth weight: Does fetal origin really matter for long-run outcomes?

Makiko Nakamuro, Yuka Uzuki & Tomohiko Inui
Economics Letters, October 2013, Pages 53–58

Abstract:
This paper investigates whether birth weight itself causes individuals’ future life chances. By using a sample of twins in Japan and controlling for the potential effects of genes and family backgrounds, we examine the effect of birth weight on later educational and economic outcomes. The most important finding is that birth weight has a causal effect on academic achievement around the age of 15, but not on the highest years of schooling and earnings.

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Reproductive history patterns and long-term mortality rates: A Danish, population-based record linkage study

Priscilla Coleman, David Reardon & Byron Calhoun
European Journal of Public Health, August 2013, Pages 569-574

Background: Inconsistent definitions and incomplete data have left society largely in the dark regarding mortality risks generally associated with pregnancy and with particular outcomes, immediately after resolution and over the long-term. Population-based record-linkage studies provide an accurate means for deriving maternal mortality rate data.

Method: In this Danish population-based study, records of women born between 1962 and 1993 (n = 1 001 266) were examined to identify associations between patterns of pregnancy resolution and mortality rates across 25 years.

Results: With statistical controls for number of pregnancies, birth year and age at last pregnancy, the combination of induced abortion(s) and natural loss(es) was associated with more than three times higher mortality rate than only birth(s). Moderate risks were identified with only induced abortion, only natural loss and having experienced all outcomes compared with only birth(s). Risk of death was more than six times greater among women who had never been pregnant compared with those who only had birth(s). Increased risks of death were 45%, 114% and 191% for 1, 2 and 3 abortions, respectively, compared with no abortions after controlling for other reproductive outcomes and last pregnancy age. Increased risks of death were equal to 44%, 86% and 150% for 1, 2 and 3 natural losses, respectively, compared with none after including statistical controls. Finally, decreased mortality risks were observed for women who had experienced two and three or more births compared with no births.

Conclusion: This study offers a broad perspective on reproductive history and mortality rates, with the results indicating a need for further research on possible underlying mechanisms.

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“Is This Something You Want?”: Genetic Counselors’ Accounts of Their Role in Prenatal Decision Making

Susan Markens
Sociological Forum, September 2013, Pages 431–451

Abstract:
With the widespread availability of prenatal genetic diagnosis, bioethical concerns have emerged about why women make use of these technologies, and the potential eugenic implications. Research on women's experience with genetic screening often suggests that genetic counselors encourage women to undergo prenatal testing and to terminate pregnancies with abnormalities. Yet, this key professional remains relatively understudied. To fill this lacuna, this article examines genetic counselors’ accounts of their role in the decision-making process, drawing on 26 qualitative interviews with master's-trained genetic counselors and illustrative observations of a prenatal counselor. In the context of debates about reproductive politics and genomic medicine, I identify the ways in which genetic counselors view their work and position themselves. I find that contrary to assumptions, genetic counselors provide accounts of being just as likely to discourage as to encourage invasive testing, and persuade against instead of promote termination of affected pregnancies. These findings suggest that genetic counselors may play a more nuanced and less coercive role than their critics contend, challenge assumptions about genetic counselors’ roles in prenatal genetic testing uptake and abortion, and shed light on how this specific professional may curb rather than promote eugenic tendencies feared with the normalization of prenatal screening.

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The Impact of Mothers' Earnings on Health Inputs and Infant Health

Naci Mocan, Christian Raschke & Bulent Unel
NBER Working Paper, September 2013

Abstract:
This paper investigates the impact of mothers’ earnings on birth weight and gestational age of infants. It also analyzes the impact of earnings on mothers’ consumption of prenatal medical care, and their propensity to smoke and drink during pregnancy. The paper uses census-division- and year-specific skill-biased technology shocks as an instrument for mothers’ earnings and employs a two-sample instrumental variables strategy. About 14 million records of births between 1989 and 2004 are used from the Natality Detail files along with the CPS Annual Demographic Files from the same period. The results reveal that an increase in weekly earnings prompts an increase in prenatal care of low-skill mothers (those who have at most a high school degree) who are not likely to be on Medicaid, and that earnings have a small positive impact on birth weight and gestational age of the newborns of these mothers. An increase in earnings does not influence the health of newborns of high-skill mothers (those with at least some college education). Variations in earnings have no impact on birth weight for mothers who are likely to be on Medicaid.

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When Do Laws Matter? National Minimum-Age-of-Marriage Laws, Child Rights, and Adolescent Fertility, 1989–2007

Minzee Kim et al.
Law & Society Review, September 2013, Pages 589–619

Abstract:
Using the case of adolescent fertility, we ask the questions of whether and when national laws have an effect on outcomes above and beyond the effects of international law and global organizing. To answer these questions, we utilize a fixed-effect time-series regression model to analyze the impact of minimum-age-of-marriage laws in 115 poor- and middle-income countries from 1989 to 2007. We find that countries with strict laws setting the minimum age of marriage at 18 experienced the most dramatic decline in rates of adolescent fertility. Trends in countries that set this age at 18 but allowed exceptions (for example, marriage with parental consent) were indistinguishable from countries that had no such minimum-age-of-marriage law. Thus, policies that adhere strictly to global norms are more likely to elicit desired outcomes. The article concludes with a discussion of what national law means in a diffuse global system where multiple actors and institutions make the independent effect of law difficult to identify.

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Women's Emotions One Week After Receiving or Being Denied an Abortion in the United States

Corinne Rocca et al.
Perspectives on Sexual and Reproductive Health, September 2013, Pages 122–131

Context: The notion that abortion causes poor mental health has gained traction, even though it is not supported by research. Few studies have comprehensively investigated women's postabortion emotions.

Methods: Baseline data from a longitudinal study of women seeking abortion at 30 U.S. facilities between 2008 and 2010 were used to examine emotions among 843 women who received an abortion just prior to the facility's gestational age limit, were denied an abortion because they presented just beyond the gestational limit or obtained a first-trimester abortion. Multivariable analyses were used to compare women's emotions about their pregnancy and about their receipt or denial of abortion after one week, and to identify variables associated with experiencing primarily negative emotions postabortion.

Results: Compared with women who obtained a near-limit abortion, those denied the abortion felt more regret and anger (scoring, on average, 0.4–0.5 points higher on a 0–4 scale), and less relief and happiness (scoring 1.4 and 0.3 points lower, respectively). Among women who had obtained the abortion, the greater the extent to which they had planned the pregnancy or had difficulty deciding to seek abortion, the more likely they were to feel primarily negative emotions (odds ratios, 1.2 and 2.5, respectively). Most (95%) women who had obtained the abortion felt it was the right decision, as did 89% of those who expressed regret.

Conclusions: Difficulty with the abortion decision and the degree to which the pregnancy had been planned were most important for women's postabortion emotional state. Experiencing negative emotions postabortion is different from believing that abortion was not the right decision.


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