Arresting Trends
The Impact of Implicit-Bias-Oriented Diversity Training on Police Officers’ Beliefs, Motivations, and Actions
Calvin Lai & Jaclyn Lisnek
Psychological Science, forthcoming
Abstract:
U.S. police departments have attempted to address racial inequities in policing with diversity training. However, little research has evaluated whether these trainings are effective at changing officers’ beliefs, motivations, and actions. To examine their efficacy, we tested a day-long implicit-bias-oriented diversity training designed to increase U.S. police officers’ knowledge of biases, concerns about bias, and use of evidence-based strategies to mitigate bias (total N = 3,764). The training was immediately effective at increasing knowledge about bias, concerns about bias, and intentions to address bias, relative to baseline. However, the effects were fleeting. Although the training was linked to higher knowledge for at least 1 month, it was ineffective at durably increasing concerns or strategy use. These findings suggest that diversity trainings as they are currently practiced are unlikely to change police behavior. We conclude with theorizing about what organizations and training programs could do for greater impact.
Do Prostitution Laws Affect Rape Rates? Evidence from Europe
Huasheng Gao & Vanya Petrova
Journal of Law and Economics, November 2022, Pages 753–789
Abstract:
We identify a causal effect of the liberalization and prohibition of commercial sex on rape rates, using staggered legislative changes in European countries. Liberalizing prostitution leads to a significant decrease in rape rates, while prohibiting it leads to a significant increase. The results are stronger when rape is less severely underreported and when it is more difficult for men to obtain sex via marriage or partnership. We also provide the first evidence for the asymmetric effect of prostitution regulation on rape rates: the magnitude of prostitution prohibition is much larger than that of prostitution liberalization. Placebo tests show that prostitution laws have no impact on nonsexual crimes. Overall, our results indicate that prostitution is a substitute for sexual violence and that the recent global trend of prohibiting commercial sex (especially the Nordic model) could have the unforeseen consequence of proliferating sexual violence.
The unintended effects of minimum wage increases on crime
Zachary Fone, Joseph Sabia & Resul Cesur
Journal of Public Economics, March 2023
Abstract:
The availability of higher-paying jobs for low-skilled individuals has been documented to reduce crime. This study explores the impact of one of the most prominent labor policies designed to provide higher wages for low-skilled workers -- the minimum wage -- on teenage and young adult arrests. Using data from the 1998–2016 Uniform Crime Reports and a difference-in-differences approach, we find that a 1 percent increase in the minimum wage is associated with a 0.2 to 0.3 percent increase in property crime arrests among 16-to-24-year-olds, an effect driven by an increase in larceny-related arrests. The magnitudes of our estimated elasticities suggest that a $15 Federal minimum wage, proposed as part of the Raise the Wage Act, could generate approximately 309,000 additional larcenies. Job loss emerges as an important mechanism to explain our findings, and supplemental analyses of affected workers in the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997 show that this effect is concentrated among workers bound by minimum wage increases. Finally, we find no evidence that minimum wage hikes impact violent crime arrests.
Suspect resistance, police use of force, and officer injuries in a post-Floyd era: An analysis of two large police departments
Hunter Boehme & Robert Kaminski
Police Practice and Research, forthcoming
Abstract:
While the events following the death of Michael Brown in Ferguson, Missouri, undoubtedly brought about anti-police sentiment, the death of George Floyd may have brought about even greater hostility towards police. Utilizing data from two large police departments, we test whether there were significant increases in the incidence of civilian resistance, Black civilian resistance, use of force, and officer injuries. Estimation of multiple interrupted time-series models revealed that except for officer injuries in one agency, all outcomes significantly increased post-Floyd. Implications for policy and practice are discussed.
Are Police Racially Biased in the Decision to Shoot?
Tom Clark et al.
Journal of Politics, forthcoming
Abstract:
We present a theoretical model predicting that racially biased policing produces 1) more use of potentially lethal force by firearms against Black civilians than against White civilians and 2) lower fatality rates for Black civilians than White civilians. We empirically evaluate this second prediction with original officer-involved shooting data from 2010 to 2017 for eight local police jurisdictions, finding that Black fatality rates are significantly lower than White fatality rates and that this significance would survive an omitted covariate three times as strong as any of our observed covariates. Furthermore, using outcome test methodology and a comparability assumption, we estimate that at least 30% of Black civilians shot by the police would not have been shot had they been White. An omitted covariate would need to be at least three times as strong as any of our observed covariates to eliminate this finding. Finally, any omitted covariate would have to affect Black fatality rates substantially more than Hispanic fatality rates in order to be consistent with the data.
Monitoring Police with Body-Worn Cameras: Evidence from Chicago
Toshio Ferrazares
Journal of Urban Economics, forthcoming
Abstract:
Using data from the Chicago Police Department on complaints filed by civilians and reports of force filed by officers, this paper estimates the effect of body-worn cameras (BWCs) of officer and civilian behavior. Using a two-way fixed effects design, I find BWCs are associated with a 29% reduction in use-of-force complaints, driven by white officer-black civilian complaints. Additionally, I find a 34% reduction in officers reporting striking civilians and a large though less significant reduction in officer firearm usage, potential mechanisms for the reduction in complaints. Importantly, I find no change in officer injury or force from civilians. However, I find evidence of de-policing as officers make fewer drug-related arrests following BWC adoption.
Hot spots policing in Las Vegas: Results from a blocked randomized controlled trial in chronic violent crime locations
Nicholas Corsaro et al.
Journal of Experimental Criminology, March 2023, Pages 213–235
Methods: Forty-four street segments were randomized into treatment (N = 22) and control (N = 22) conditions across nine chronic, persistent violent crime areas. The conditions (foot patrols, stationary patrol vehicles, and business-as-usual) were active for 6 months.
Results: Over 90% of the hot spots experienced an average of 1.5 h or greater of patrol dosage per day. In terms of impact, the mixed effects negative binomial regression results showed that the addition of HSP had a marginally significant reduction on overall crime (− 21%), a statistically significant reduction on overall calls for service (− 25.7%), and a statistically significant reduction of 34% on violent calls for service.
The Effect of Opioids on Crime: Evidence from the Introduction of OxyContin
Yongbo Sim
International Review of Law and Economics, forthcoming
Abstract:
Since the late 1990s, the U.S. has experienced a substantial rise in drug overdose and overdose deaths due to the increased use of opioid drugs. This study estimates the effects of the opioid epidemic on crime relying for identification on geographic variation in the distribution of OxyContin, which in turn was driven by initial state drug prescription policies. Using Uniform Crime Reports (UCR) data, I find that compared to states with stringent prescription policies, states more exposed to OxyContin had 25% higher violent crime rates. Thus, the supply shock of opioids combined with loose policies on prescription drugs created unintended and negative consequences beyond health and mortality. This conclusion is supported by suggestive evidence on mechanisms of mood instability, alcohol abuse, and illegal drug markets.
The Past as Prologue: Police Stops and Legacies of Complaints About Neighborhood Police Misconduct
Bill McCarthy et al.
Race and Justice, forthcoming
Abstract:
Quantitative analyses show that police stop and frisks are highly concentrated by neighborhood. Interview and ethnographic studies show that police routinely share information about neighborhood attributes including crime rates and demographic characteristics such as racial and ethnic composition and economic conditions. Investigations suggest that police also share information about complaints against them. Our analysis bridges these three literatures and examines whether a neighborhood's historical and contemporary complaints about police mistreatment are a significant source of police stops. Our research focuses on complaints and stops in Chicago. We find that stops are more frequent in neighborhoods where historical and contemporary complaints are high, as well as in communities with high concentrations of economically disadvantaged, Hispanic, and especially Black residents. We find that these associations hold net of potential sources of spuriousness, including prior police stops and crime. Police perceptions of the race of the person stopped contextualize the relationships between stops and complaints: they are exacerbated for people the police identified as Black. Our findings suggest that complaints and the narratives they engender may be enduring systemic sources of bias in police behavior.