Active Investors
Political Activism, Information Costs, and Stock Market Participation
Yosef Bonaparte & Alok Kumar
Journal of Financial Economics, forthcoming
Abstract:
This paper examines whether political activism increases people's propensity to participate in the stock market. Our key conjecture is that politically active people follow political news more actively, which increases their chance of being exposed to financial news. Consequently, their information gathering costs are likely to be lower and the propensity to participate in the market would be higher. We find support for this hypothesis using multiple micro-level data sets, state-level data from the U.S., and cross-country data from Europe. Irrespective of their political affiliation, politically active individuals are 9-25% more likely to participate in the stock market. Using residence in "battleground" states and several other geographic instruments, we demonstrate that greater political activism reduces information gathering costs and causes higher market participation rates. Further, consistent with our conjecture, we find that politically active individuals spend about 30 minutes more on news daily and appear more knowledgeable about the economy and the markets.
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Claude Erb & Campbell Harvey
Duke University Working Paper, August 2012
Abstract:
Gold objects have existed for thousands of years but gold has only been an actively traded object since 1975. Gold has often been described as an inflation hedge. If gold is an inflation hedge then on average its real return should be zero. Yet over 1, 5, 10, 15 and 20 year investment horizons the variation in the nominal and real returns of gold has not been driven by realized inflation. The real price of gold is currently high compared to history. In the past, when the real price of gold was above average, subsequent real gold returns have been below average. As a result investors in gold face a daunting dilemma: 1) seek inflation protection by paying a high real gold price that almost guarantees a decline in future purchasing power or 2) avoid gold and run the risk of a decline in future purchasing power if inflation surges. Given this situation is it time to explore "this time is different" rationalizations? We show that new mined supply is surprisingly unresponsive to prices. In addition, authoritative estimates suggest that about three quarters of the achievable world supply of gold has already been mined. On the demand side, we focus on the official gold holdings of many countries. If prominent emerging markets increase their gold holdings to average per capita or per GDP holdings of developed countries, the real price of gold may rise even further from today's elevated levels.
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Supply Chain Sustainability: Evidence on Conflict Minerals
Paul Griffin, David Lont & Yuan Sun
University of California Working Paper, August 2012
Abstract:
This study tests hypotheses about the expected economic cost of section 1502 of the Dodd-Frank Reform Act of 2010, which seeks to expand transparency and eliminate trade in U.S. companies' use of conflict minerals. Conflict minerals refers to minerals mined mostly in the Republic of Congo and adjoining countries to support armed conflict and human rights abuses. We also study conflict minerals as an example of a supply chain activity outside the confines of traditional accounting and reporting that affects investors' perceptions of company value and sustainability. Based on companies with conflict minerals disclosures (discloser companies) and a size- and industry-matched control sample of non-disclosers, we find that shareholder value decreases for both samples for up to three weeks following the event dates of the discloser companies. These results support the idea that conflict minerals disclosure engenders changes in company and customer decision making, which adversely affects shareholder value (the endogenic hypothesis). They are not consistent with the alternative hypothesis, that conflict minerals disclosure improves shareholder value through increased transparency. Our findings are also consistent with companies' claims of a significant cost to implement section 1502. These results have distinct implications for corporate social responsibility disclosure, for they show that legislators' and stakeholders' demands for increased social transparency can be highly costly to shareholders when the disclosure rules induce significant changes in management and customer decision making. This should also help stakeholders, legislators, and regulators to be better informed about the cost and relate such cost to the perceived benefits of such changes.
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Ashwini Agrawal
Journal of Financial Economics, forthcoming
Abstract:
Recent studies have debated the impact of investor protection law on corporate behavior and value. I exploit the staggered passage of state securities fraud statutes ("blue sky laws") in the United States to estimate the causal effects of investor protection law on firm financing decisions and investment activity. The statutes induce firms to increase dividends, issue equity, and grow in size. The laws also facilitate improvements in operating performance and market valuations. Overall, the evidence is strongly supportive of theoretical models that predict investor protection law has a significant impact on corporate policy and performance.
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Why Are U.S. Stocks More Volatile?
Söhnke Bartram, Gregory Brown & René Stulz
Journal of Finance, August 2012, Pages 1329-1370
Abstract:
U.S. stocks are more volatile than stocks of similar foreign firms. A firm's stock return volatility can be higher for reasons that contribute positively (good volatility) or negatively (bad volatility) to shareholder wealth and economic growth. We find that the volatility of U.S. firms is higher mostly because of good volatility. Specifically, stock volatility is higher in the United States because it increases with investor protection, stock market development, new patents, and firm-level investment in R&D. Each of these factors is related to better growth opportunities for firms and better ability to take advantage of these opportunities.
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The Effects of Usury Laws: Evidence from the Online Loan Market
Oren Rigbi
Review of Economics and Statistics, forthcoming
Abstract:
Usury laws cap the interest rates that lenders can charge. Using data from Prosper.com (an online lending marketplace) I investigate the effects of these laws. The key to my empirical strategy is that there was initially substantial variability in states' interest rate caps ranging from 6 to 36%. A behind-the-scenes change in loan origination, however, suddenly increased the cap to 36%. The main findings of the study are that higher interest rate caps increase the probability that a loan will be funded, especially if the borrower was previously just "outside the money." I do not find, however, changes in loan amounts and default probability. The interest rate paid rises slightly, probably because online lending is substantially, yet imperfectly, integrated with the general credit market.
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The Role of the Media in a Bubble
Gareth Campbell, John Turner & Clive Walker
Explorations in Economic History, October 2012, Pages 461-481
Abstract:
We examine the role of the news media during the British Railway Mania, arguably one of the largest financial bubbles in history. Our analysis suggests that the press responded to changes in the stock market, and its reporting of recent events may have influenced asset prices. However, we find no evidence that the sentiment of the media, or the attention which it gave to particular stocks, had any influence on exacerbating or ending the Mania. The main contribution of the media was to provide factual information which investors could use to inform their decisions.
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Macroeconomic effects of an equity transaction tax in a general-equilibrium model
Julia Lendvai, Rafal Raciborski & Lukas Vogel
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, forthcoming
Abstract:
The paper studies the impact of an equity transaction tax (ETT) on financial and real variables in a DSGE model with two types of financial frictions: (1) financial intermediaries facing a leverage constraint; (2) noise shocks that lead to the emergence of non-fundamental equity trade. The ETT depresses the demand for equity and hence increases share returns; this then affects firms' investment decisions. In the long run, the tax is found to be as distortive as a corporate income tax. The transaction tax also reduces volatility in financial markets, but the impact on real volatility is limited.
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Effects of soccer on stock markets: The return-volatility relationship
Hakan Berument & Nildag Basak Ceylan
Social Science Journal, September 2012, Pages 368-37
Abstract:
This paper assesses the effects of domestic soccer teams' performances against foreign rivals on stock market returns as well as on the return-volatility relationship. Data from Chile, Spain, Turkey and the United Kingdom support propositions that soccer teams results in international cups affect stock market returns and the return-volatility relationship. Evidence from Spain and the UK, soccer powerhouses, suggests that losses are associated with lower returns and higher risk aversion but evidence from Chile and Turkey, where soccer is the most important sport but teams are not as successful, reveals that wins are associated with higher returns and lower risk aversion.
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Early Season NFL Over/Under Bias
Michael DiFilippo et al.
Journal of Sports Economics, forthcoming
Abstract:
Popular wisdom regarding athletics is that offenses are at a relative disadvantage in the early portion of seasons. The authors present evidence that this anecdotal belief holds true over the 2000-2010 National Football League (NFL) seasons. This is reflected in lower offensive yardage, fewer first downs, and fewer points scored. While total points scored are significantly lower in Week 1 of NFL seasons, bookmakers fail to reduce the total lines posted on these games. The authors find a strategy betting under total lines of all Week 1 games over the 2000-2010 NFL seasons yields a statistically significant return of 13.6% per game.
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Are mutual funds sitting ducks?
Sophie Shive & Hayong Yun
Journal of Financial Economics, forthcoming
Abstract:
We find that patient traders profit from the predictable, flow-induced trades of mutual funds. In anticipation of a 1%-of-volume change in mutual fund flows into a stock next quarter, the institutions in the same 13F category as hedge funds trade 0.31-0.45% of volume in the current quarter. A third of the trading is associated with the subset of 504 identified hedge funds. The effect is stronger when quarterly mutual fund portfolio disclosure is required and among hedge funds with more patient capital. A one standard deviation higher measure of anticipatory trading by a hedge fund is associated with a 0.9% higher annualized four-factor alpha. A one standard deviation higher measure of anticipation of a mutual fund's trades by institutions is associated with a 0.07-0.15% lower annualized four-factor alpha. The effect is stronger for more constrained mutual funds.
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The Client is King: Do Mutual Fund Relationships Bias Analyst Recommendations?
Michael Firth et al.
Journal of Accounting Research, forthcoming
Abstract:
This article investigates whether the business relations between mutual funds and brokerage firms influence sell-side analyst recommendations. Using a unique data set that discloses brokerage firms' commission income derived from each mutual fund client as well as the share holdings of these mutual funds, we find that an analyst's recommendation on a stock relative to consensus is significantly higher if the stock is held by the mutual fund clients of the analyst's brokerage firm. The optimism in analyst recommendations increases with the weight of the stock in a mutual fund client's portfolio and the commission revenue generated from the mutual fund client. However, this favorable recommendation bias towards a client's existing portfolio stocks is mitigated if the stock in question is highly visible to other mutual fund investors. Abnormal stock returns are significantly greater both for the announcement period and in the long run for favorable stock recommendations from analysts not subject to client pressure than for equally favorable recommendations from business-related analysts. In addition, we find that subsequent to announcements of bad news from the covered firms, analysts are significantly less likely to downgrade a stock held by client mutual funds. Mutual funds increase their holdings in a stock that receives a favorable recommendation but this impact is significantly reduced if the recommendation comes from analysts subject to client pressure.
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Conservatism, SEC investigation, and fraud
Pervaiz Alam & Karin Petruska
Journal of Accounting and Public Policy, July-August 2012, Pages 399-431
Abstract:
We present evidence on the relationship between firms that have engaged in fraudulent financial reporting and accounting conservatism. We empirically investigate the extent to which US firms identified by the SEC in their Enforcement Releases demonstrate higher levels of conditional conservatism in order to mitigate information asymmetry and agency problems. Specifically, by assessing the timing of changes in the litigation risk environment for fraud firms, we document how differences in heightened legal liability guide changes in conservative accounting behavior. Compared to a matched non-fraud control sample, we document that fraud firms have significantly lower levels of accounting conservatism in the pre-fraud period. Consistent with changes in potential legal liability, we find an increase in accounting conservatism for fraud firms during the SEC investigation period. Subsequently, during the public discovery of fraud, any increases in accounting conservatism are marginal and appear to converge back to lower levels compared to the SEC investigation period. Overall, our findings suggest more temporary changes in conservative reporting in the short-term for fraud firms. We also document that increased levels of accounting conservatism for fraud firms are not due solely to the passage of the SOX Act. Our findings aid in explaining fraud firms' incentives and opportunities for accounting conservatism and lend support for why standard setters, regulators and auditors should continue to monitor and re-evaluate conservatism's short-term effects that are conditioned on changes in a firm's risk environment.
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Cem Demiroglu & Christopher James
Review of Financial Studies, forthcoming
Abstract:
This article examines the relationship between a mortgage originator's affiliation with the sponsor of a securitization or the servicer of the securitized loans and the default rate on the securitized mortgages. We find that default rates are significantly lower for securitizations in which the originator is affiliated with the sponsor or servicer. Consistent with investors expecting performance to vary with affiliation, we find that the initial yields on mortgage-backed securities (MBS) are lower and the percentage of AAA-rated securities issued against the securitized pool of loans is higher when the originator is affiliated with either the sponsor or servicer.
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Convenience in the mutual fund industry
George Cashman
Journal of Corporate Finance, December 2012, Pages 1326-1336
Abstract:
I examine the role of convenience in the mutual fund industry. I find that investors pay more for relatively convenient funds, and that the flows to convenient funds are less responsive to performance. These findings suggest that investors do not evaluate mutual funds independently, but rather that investors select a primary fund, likely based on beliefs about managerial ability, and then select funds which are relatively convenient to this primary fund.
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What is the Impact of Financial Advisors on Retirement Portfolio Choices and Outcomes?
John Chalmers & Jonathan Reuter
NBER Working Paper, June 2012
Abstract:
Within the Oregon University System's defined contribution retirement plan, one investment provider offers access to face-to-face financial advice through its network of brokers. We find that younger, less highly educated, and less highly paid employees are more likely to choose this provider. To benchmark the portfolios of broker clients, we use the actual portfolios of self-directed investors and counterfactual portfolios constructed using target-date funds, a popular default investment. Broker clients allocate contributions across a larger number of investments than self-directed investors, and they are less likely to remain fully invested in the default option. However, broker clients' portfolios are significantly riskier than self-directed investors' portfolios, and they underperform both benchmarks. Exploiting across-fund variation in broker compensation, we find that broker clients' allocations are higher when broker fees are higher. Survey responses from current plan participants support our identifying assumption that the portfolio choices of broker clients reflect the recommendations of their brokers.
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Hard Assets: The Returns on Rare Diamonds and Gems
Luc Renneboog & Christophe Spaenjers
Finance Research Letters, forthcoming
Abstract:
This note examines the investment performance of diamonds and other gems (sapphires, rubies, and emeralds) over the period 1999-2010, using a novel data set of auction transactions. Over our time frame, the annualized real USD returns for white and colored diamonds equaled 6.4% and 2.9%, respectively. Since 2003, the average returns have been 10.0%, 5.5%, and 6.8% for white diamonds, colored diamonds, and other gems, respectively. Both white and colored diamonds outperformed stocks between 1999 and 2010. Nevertheless, gem returns covary positively with stock returns, underlining the importance of wealth-induced demand for luxury consumption in collectibles markets.
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Optimal Setting of Point Spreads
Jeremy Sandford & Paul Shea
Economica, forthcoming
Abstract:
We develop a model of competitive gambling markets addressing two empirical puzzles. First, why do bookmakers not set unbiased lines that try to equalize betting on both sides, and thus profit from commissions with minimal risk? Second, why is there little evidence of bookmakers competing through lower commissions? We show that the interaction between bookmakers' and gamblers' private information can induce biased lines even when all players are maximizing their chances of winning. We also offer an explanation for persistently high commissions charged by seemingly competitive bookmakers; these commissions are necessary to compensate books for assuming the disadvantage of moving first.
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Evaluating the Economic Impact of Casino Liberalization in Macao
Victor Zheng & Eva Hung
Journal of Gambling Studies, September 2012, Pages 541-559
Abstract:
This paper aims to evaluate the economic impact after Macao decided to liberalize its gaming industry. By analysing both objective data of official statistics and subjective data of the perceptions of quality of life, we painted a picture of mixed blessings. Although objective indicators showed strong economic growth in terms of a rise in per capita GDP and public revenue as well as a decline in unemployment rate, subjective indicators revealed that local residents were less than optimistic about their own employment outlook and did not perceive any improvement in their overall economic situation. While casino liberalization brought forth tremendous economic gain, the general population did not subjectively feel the benefits. An integrative analysis of both objective and subjective indicators would therefore allow us to look closer how residents' lives in the micro-level could have been adversely affected by the prosperous economic outlook at the macro-level.
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Is there price discovery in equity options?
Dmitriy Muravyev, Neil Pearson & John Paul Broussard
Journal of Financial Economics, forthcoming
Abstract:
We use tick-by-tick quote data for 39 liquid US stocks and options on them, and we focus on events when the two markets disagree about the stock price in the sense that the option-implied stock price obtained from the put-call parity relation is inconsistent with the actual stock price. Option market quotes adjust to eliminate the disagreement, while the stock market quotes behave normally, as if there were no disagreement. The disagreement events are typically precipitated by stock price movements and display signed option volume in the direction that tends to eliminate the disagreements. These results show that option price quotes do not contain economically significant information about future stock prices beyond what is already reflected in current stock prices, i.e., no economically significant price discovery occurs in the option market. We also find no option market price discovery using a much larger sample of disagreement events based on a weaker definition of a disagreement, which verifies that the findings for the primary sample are not due to unusual or unrepresentative market behavior during the put-call parity violations.
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Price Discovery in the U.S. Treasury Market: Automation vs. Intermediation
Kasing Man, Junbo Wang & Chunchi Wu
Management Science, forthcoming
Abstract:
This paper examines the contribution to price discovery by electronic and voice-based trading systems in the U.S. Treasury market. Evidence shows that the electronic trading system has more price discovery and that trading automation increases the speed of incorporating information into prices. However, human trading generates significant price discovery, though its volume is low. The relative contribution of a trading system to price discovery depends on liquidity, volatility, volume, trade size, and order imbalance. The voice-based trading system contributes more to price discovery when trade size is large and liquidity is low. These findings provide important implications for the design of electronic markets for securities with different characteristics and trading environments.
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The Trading Volume Impact of Local Bias: Evidence from a Natural Experiment
Heiko Jacobs & Martin Weber
Review of Finance, October 2012, Pages 867-901
Abstract:
Exploiting regional holidays in Germany as a source of exogenous cross-sectional variation in investor attention, we provide evidence that the well-known local bias at the individual level materially affects stock turnover at the firm level. Stocks of firms located in holiday regions are temporarily strikingly less traded than otherwise very similar stocks in non-holiday regions. This negative turnover shock survives comprehensive tests for differences in information release. It appears particularly pronounced in stocks less visible to nonlocal investors and for smaller stocks disproportionately driven by retail investors. Our findings contribute to research on local bias, trading activity, and investor distraction.
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The costs of shareholder activism: Evidence from a sequential decision model
Nickolay Gantchev
Journal of Financial Economics, forthcoming
Abstract:
This paper provides benchmarks for monitoring costs and evaluates the net returns to shareholder activism. I model activism as a sequential decision process consisting of demand negotiations, board representation, and proxy contest and estimate the costs of each activism stage. A campaign ending in a proxy fight has average costs of $10.71 million. I find that the estimated monitoring costs reduce activist returns by more than two-thirds. The mean net activist return is close to zero but the top quartile of activists earns higher returns on their activist holdings than on their non-activist investments. The large-sample evidence presented in this paper aids in understanding the nature and evolution of activist engagements.