Act Blue
A Cognitive View of Policing
Oeindrila Dube, Sandy Jo MacArthur & Anuj Shah
NBER Working Paper, September 2023
Abstract:
What causes adverse policing outcomes, such as excessive uses of force and unnecessary arrests? Prevailing explanations focus on problematic officers or deficient regulations and oversight. Here, we introduce a new, overlooked perspective. We suggest that the cognitive demands inherent in policing can undermine officer decision-making. Unless officers are prepared for these demands, they may jump to conclusions too quickly without fully considering alternative ways of seeing a situation. This can lead to adverse policing outcomes. To test this perspective, we created a new training that teaches officers to more deliberately consider different ways of interpreting the situations they encounter. We evaluated this training using a randomized controlled trial with 2,070 officers from the Chicago Police Department. In a series of lab assessments, we find that treated officers were significantly more likely to consider a wider range of evidence and develop more explanations for subjects' actions. Critically, we also find that training affected officer performance in the field, leading to reductions in uses of force, discretionary arrests, and arrests of Black civilians. Meanwhile, officer activity levels remained unchanged, and trained officers were less likely to be injured on duty. Our results highlight the value of considering the cognitive aspects of policing and demonstrate the power of using behaviorally informed approaches to improve officer decision-making and policing outcomes.
Declining Trends in Crime Reporting and Victims’ Trust of Police in the United States and Major Metropolitan Areas in the 21st Century
Min Xie, Veyli Ortiz Solis & Preeti Chauhan
Journal of Contemporary Criminal Justice, forthcoming
Abstract:
Victims’ willingness to report crime and their opinions about the police are important indicators of police performance, police legitimacy, and trust in the justice system. This study examines two decades of trends in police notification and victims’ perceptions of the police in the United States and major metropolitan areas since 2000, using data from the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS). In contrast to previous studies indicating an increase in police notification in the 1980s and 1990s, the present study shows a progressive decline in police notification observed in the last two decades, especially since 2010. Furthermore, there has been a marked increase in victims’ mistrust of police responsiveness since the mid-2000s. Using multivariable regression models that control for potential changes in the characteristics of crime and survey methodology, we find that the victims’ rising distrust of the police is widespread in many metropolitan areas, in all racial/ethnic and socioeconomic groups, and especially so for victims of theft, burglary, and simple assault. In the discussion, we suggest that the changing policing strategies and the evolving economic, political, and social environments of the 21st century may help explain the trends identified by this research. Understanding victim reporting trends and victims’ opinions of the police may affect data and policy and help the justice system to better serve victims and enhance public safety.
Gun-ownership disclosure and localized home prices
Michael Seiler & Liuming Yang
Real Estate Economics, forthcoming
Abstract:
This article examines how the disclosure of local gun-ownership information affects property values. Using the sudden disclosure of a gun-ownership map in two New York counties, we explore how home sellers respond to this exogenous information shock. Our results show that an additional permit holder in the neighborhood leads to a 1% decrease in housing prices after the disclosure. This effect is highly localized in that property values are only negatively impacted by gun-permit holders within 0.1 mi of the focal property. These findings highlight the negative effect of the disclosure of gun-ownership information on localized home prices.
Evaluation of Field Sobriety Tests for Identifying Drivers Under the Influence of Cannabis: A Randomized Clinical Trial
Thomas Marcotte et al.
JAMA Psychiatry, September 2023, Pages 914-923
Design, Setting, and Participants: This double-blind, placebo-controlled parallel randomized clinical trial was conducted from February 2017 to June 2019 at the Center for Medicinal Cannabis Research, University of California, San Diego. Participants were aged 21 to 55 years and had used cannabis in the past month. Data were analyzed from August 2021 to April 2023.
Results: The study included 184 participants (117 [63.6%] male; mean [SD] age, 30 [8.3] years) who had used cannabis a mean (SD) of 16.7 (9.8) days in the past 30 days; 121 received THC and 63, placebo. Officers classified 98 participants (81.0%) in the THC group and 31 (49.2%) in the placebo group as FST impaired (difference, 31.8 percentage points; 95% CI, 16.4-47.2 percentage points; P < .001) at 70 minutes after smoking. The THC group performed significantly worse than the placebo group on 8 of 27 individual FST components (29.6%) and all FST summary scores. However, the placebo group did not complete a median of 8 (IQR, 5-11) FST components as instructed. Of 128 participants classified as FST impaired, officers suspected 127 (99.2%) as having received THC. Driving simulator performance was significantly associated with results of select FSTs (eg, ≥2 clues on One Leg Stand was associated with impairment on the simulator: odds ratio, 3.09; 95% CI, 1.63-5.88; P < .001).
Police Discretion and Public Safety
Felipe Gonçalves & Steven Mello
NBER Working Paper, September 2023
Abstract:
We study the implications of police discretion for public safety. Highway patrol officers exercise discretion over fines by deviating from statutory fine rules. Relying on variation across officers in this discretionary behavior, we find that harsher sanctions reduce future traffic offending and crash involvement. We then show that officer discretion over sanctions decreases public safety by comparing observed reoffending rates with those in a counterfactual without discretion, estimated using an identification at infinity approach. About half the safety cost of discretion is due to officer decisions which result in harsh sanctions for motorists who are least deterred by them. We provide evidence that this officer behavior is attributable to a preference for allocating harsh fines to motorists with higher recidivism risk, who are also the least responsive to harsher sanctions.
Con Air: Exploring the trade in counterfeit and unapproved aircraft parts
Justin Kotzé & Georgios Antonopoulos
British Journal of Criminology, September 2023, Pages 1293–1308
Abstract:
Counterfeit aircraft parts are among the most well-known counterfeits and pose a significant risk to public safety. It is estimated that as much as 10% of the legal market for aircraft parts are counterfeits and the presence of these parts on commercial aircraft are more commonplace than many people realise. Yet, criminological research on this pressing issue is remarkably scarce. Informed by accounts from specialised and highly knowledgeable actors embedded in the aviation industry, this paper aims to explore how counterfeit and unapproved parts enter the legitimate supply chain and what factors drive or motivate their circulation and use.
Labeling effects of initial juvenile justice system processing decision on youth interpersonal ties
Zachary Rowan et al.
Criminology, forthcoming
Abstract:
The juvenile justice system can process youth in myriad ways. Youth who are formally processed, relative to being informally processed, may experience more public and harsh sanctions that label youth more negatively as “deviant.” Drawing on labeling theory, the current study evaluates the relative effect of formal justice system processing on the interpersonal dynamics of youth peer networks. Using data from the Crossroads Study, a multisite longitudinal sample of first-time adolescent offenders, the current study applies augmented inverse probability weighting and generalized mixed-effects models to estimate the effects of formal processing on friendship selection processes of homophily and withdrawal and considers whether these effects vary by race and ethnicity. Consistent with expectations of homophily, formally processed youth acquire more new deviant peers and fewer nondeviant peers during the 3 years after their initial processing decision compared with informally processed youth. The findings suggest no differences exist across processing types in withdrawal from friends. These effects were consistent across racial and ethnic groups. Ultimately, this study explores the dynamic interpersonal mechanisms associated with labeling theory and offers additional insight into the negative effects of formal processing.
Officer Networks and Firearm Behaviors: Assessing the Social Transmission of Weapon-Use
Marie Ouellet, Sadaf Hashimi & George Vega Yon
Journal of Quantitative Criminology, September 2023, Pages 679–703
Methods: We draw from a statewide dataset of force incidents across law enforcement agencies in New Jersey, and employ conditional likelihood models to estimate whether exposure to peers with histories of firearm use is associated with an officer’s own likelihood of firearm use net of other contextual confounders.
Results: We find preliminary evidence that officer firearm behaviors, including drawing, pointing, and discharging a firearm, is influenced by an officer’s peers. Greater exposure to colleagues with histories of firearm use is associated with a lower risk of using a firearm. We also find that officer features, including experience and race/ethnicity, are associated with the risk of firearm use.
White Violence, Black Victims: The Impact of Political and Economic Competition on Interracial Killings in 21st Century America
Jonathan Reid
Homicide Studies, forthcoming
Abstract:
Do political and economic rivalries promote interracial killings in 21st-century America? This article examines the determinants of disaggregated interracial killings in 1,381 U.S. counties by testing conflict-based accounts in an era of economic recession and unprecedented Black political mobilization. Results show that one dimension of racial conflict -- political competition -- is linked to interracial killings. Counties with mounting interracial rivalry in the political domain are significantly more likely to experience White perpetrated killings of Black residents and less likely to experience Black-on-White homicide offending. These results suggest that contests for political influence lead to greater interracial violence involving White perpetrators and Black victims.
Driving under the influence of cannabis and alcohol: Evidence from a national sample of young drivers
Christopher Salas-Wright et al.
Addictive Behaviors, December 2023
Methods: We used data from the 2020 and 2021 National Survey on Drug Use and Health (young drivers ages 16-20; N=12,863). All analyses -- survey adjusted prevalence estimates, logistic regression -- were conducted using Stata SE 17.0 and weighted to account for the study’s stratified cluster sampling design.
Results: The prevalence of DUI-cannabis for the full sample -- including those not endorsing past-year use -- was 6.3%. Among youth endorsing past-year cannabis use, 24.5% reported DUI of cannabis. In the full sample and among cannabis users, DUI-cannabis risk was elevated among older and male youth. The prevalence of DUI-alcohol was 2.6% among all youth and 6.1% among youth reporting past-year alcohol consumption.
Vacant Building Removals Associated with Relative Reductions in Violent and Property Crimes in Baltimore, MD 2014–2019
Dexter Locke et al.
Journal of Urban Health, August 2023, Pages 666–675
Abstract:
Vacant and abandoned buildings are common features in many post-industrial US cities, and are consistent predictors of violence. Demolition programs are regularly employed as an urban land use policy to stabilize housing markets and mitigate public health problems including violence. The objective of this research was to examine the effect of vacant building removals on violent and property crimes in Baltimore, MD from 2014 to 2019. We conducted a difference-in-differences analysis using spatio-temporal Bayesian mixed models on six crime types on block faces with and without building removals, before compared with after removal. There were significant reductions in total, violent crimes (with and without assaults), thefts, and burglaries on block faces with building removals relative to their controls. Total crimes decreased 1.4% per mi2 (CrI: 0.5 – 2.3%), which translates to a relative reduction ~ 2.6 total crimes per mi2 per year. The largest relative decreases in crime were found among assaults (4.9%; CrI: 3.4 – 6.3%) and violent crimes (3.0%; CrI: 1.9 – 4.1%). Building removals were associated with relative reductions in crime in Baltimore City. The relative reductions in crime, at building removals compared to at control vacant lots, were found among assaults and violent crimes, the crimes of greatest public health concern. Building removals provide co-benefits to their communities, and may be considered part of a crime reduction strategy compatible with other approaches. A systematic effort to understand the role of care for remaining vacant lots could further inform our findings, and efforts to further decrease violence and improve community health.
Hot spots policing as part of a city-wide violent crime reduction strategy: Initial evidence from Dallas
Michael Smith, Rob Tillyer & Brandon Tregle
Journal of Criminal Justice, forthcoming
Abstract:
A growing body of literature suggests that crime is both concentrated in a small number of geographic units, and committed by a small number of people, within American cities. A related body of empirical evidence, dating back almost three decades, suggests that police can effectively combat violent crime in hot spots by focusing resources within them. The current study evaluates the impact of a hot spots policing strategy in Dallas, Texas as part of a comprehensive, city-wide strategic plan to reduce violent crime. Using difference-in-differences techniques, we find consistent evidence that violent crime fell, on average, by 11% in targeted hot spots during the first year of the Dallas Crime Plan with no evidence of spatial crime displacement to adjacent areas. Effects varied somewhat by treatment type. The offender-focused treatment was somewhat more effective than the high visibility treatment alone, but both reduced crime by statistically significant amounts. Arrest analyses likewise revealed differential impacts by treatment type, with significant arrest reductions seen in high visibility treatment areas consistent with deterrence and arrest increases in offender-focused areas consistent with the strategy's focus on violent offenders. The contribution of the targeted hot spots to city-wide violent crime decreased significantly over the course of the year, which provides inferential evidence of the strategy's possible city-wide impact on violent crime. Implications of the study for policy, practice, and future research are discussed.